2021 LiftKits4Less.com 200 Race Picks
- Updated: May 6, 2021
Friday May 7th, 2021. 7:30PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
The Camping World Truck Series will officially kick off “Throwback Weekend’ this Friday night with the running of the LiftKits4Less.com 200 at Darlington Raceway. Over the last several races, Truck Series drivers have had to battle Kyle Busch who has competed in 4 of the last 5 events. Last week, Busch scored his 2nd victory of the season at Kansas Speedway by taking advantage of a few late race restarts to pass teammate John Hunter Nemechek and Austin Hill in the closing laps. The good news for Truck Series regulars is that Busch will not be in the line-up when the green flag waves this Friday which opens the window of opportunity for many drivers to potentially score their first victory of the season!
Despite Busch’s absence, Kyle Busch Motorsports’ driver John Hunter Nemechek will step into the overall betting favorite position. Nemechek has been spectacular this season capturing victories at Las Vegas and Richmond. Not only did Nemechek beat the boss in Kyle Busch in those events but he nearly pulled out another victory last week at Kansas. Needless to say, Nemechek has proved to be the new alpha in the Truck Series and will be a weekly favorite as the season progresses. As many are aware, Darlington Raceway is an extremely tough track for drivers. The track features minimal grip, significant tire wear, and one of the slickest yet narrow racing surfaces in the sport. As a result, this track will favor the top drivers in the Camping World Truck Series and Nemechek’s name remains at the top of that list.
Aside from Nemechek, I would favor Austin Hill and Sheldon Creed as your top talents to keep on your radar this week for Darlington. Zane Smith likely deserves to be in that category as well. However, I will stick with Hill and Creed for now based on current form combined with prior history on similar surfaces. The Truck Series visited Darlington last year for the first time in nearly a decade. Ben Rhodes eventually emerged as the winner but I would point out that Creed had the fastest truck throughout the race. Creed led a race-high 82 laps before getting into trouble which ruined his finish. Therefore, I would not be surprised if he was a big factor again this week when the green flag waves.
Loop Data
Since we only have 1 recent race in the Truck Series at Darlington, I did not compile loop data around prior track history. Loop data in the truck series, based on past history, does not work as well as some of the higher series because of the turnover and constant change of drivers/teams. However, I did compile loop data stats from the first 3 races this season on intermediate speedways stemming from Las Vegas, Atlanta, and Kansas. Though Darlington is slightly smaller in size, I believe this combination of loop data gives us a solid measuring stick around current performance that can be utilized this week. Obviously we are going to give more value to the drivers this week but we cannot overlook performance entirely either.
As I stated earlier, everyone can see that John Hunter Nemechek has been spectacular this season on the intermediate speedways and everywhere for that matter. Nemechek’s average ratings actually better Kyle Busch in the races he has participated in this season which is a pretty strong statistic. Aside from Nemechek’s dominance, I believe the top 5-6 drivers in our loop data are the expected top names. I would say that Stewart Friesen is the biggest surprise on the list due to the 2020 campaign but the #52 team has turned things around. Frisen is one of those drivers that typically performs well on low-grip surfaces so perhaps the #52 truck deserves some respect this week as well.
On the other side of the spectrum, we can see decreased performance from the likes of Brett Moffitt and Grant Enfinger who have both had to step into inferior equipment. Moffitt’s seat is permanent with Niece Motorsports while Enfinger has gone back and forth between the #9 and #99 teams due to sponsorship concerns. I have noticed that odds-makers don’t seem to notice which truck he is driving from week to week. As a result, I think we can steal some potential fade value when Enfinger is in the #9 truck as the season progresses. Enfinger will be piloting the #99 for Thorsport Racing this week which means we will likely avoid any fade options.
*Data reflects combined loop data from Las Vegas, Atlanta, and Kansas based around intermediate track performance
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Laps | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Hunter Nemechek | 131.6 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 18 | 73 | 131 | 404 |
| Austin Hill | 110.4 | 14.7 | 9.7 | 2.7 | 7.7 | 55 | 25 | 0 | 404 |
| Stewart Friesen | 104.7 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 24 | 14 | 4 | 404 |
| Sheldon Creed | 102.5 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 18.3 | 9.3 | -30 | 18 | 48 | 400 |
| Zane Smith | 101.5 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 404 |
| Matt Crafton | 98.6 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 8.3 | -10 | 4 | 3 | 403 |
| Ben Rhodes | 96.6 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 403 |
| Christian Eckes | 92.8 | 11.0 | 14.5 | 6.5 | 11.5 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 274 |
| Johnny Sauter | 89.3 | 9.3 | 16.0 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 404 |
| Brett Moffitt | 88.4 | 13.5 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 37 | 4 | 13 | 264 |
| Grant Enfinger | 85.8 | 22.0 | 15.0 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 52 | 2 | 0 | 403 |
| Todd Gilliland | 83.6 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 13.0 | -26 | 1 | 0 | 403 |
| Tanner Gray | 79.4 | 18.0 | 13.0 | 16.3 | 14.3 | -25 | 5 | 0 | 402 |
| Parker Kligerman | 77.7 | 27.5 | 20.0 | 11.0 | 16.0 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 263 |
| Chandler Smith | 73.6 | 7.7 | 19.3 | 21.7 | 21.0 | -39 | 18 | 0 | 398 |
| Tyler Ankrum | 73.5 | 19.7 | 10.3 | 22.3 | 16.3 | -5 | 1 | 0 | 391 |
| Derek Kraus | 70.3 | 17.0 | 19.0 | 24.3 | 21.0 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 393 |
| Austin Wayne Self | 66.3 | 13.3 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 19.0 | -11 | 0 | 0 | 401 |
| Carson Hocevar | 64.4 | 12.7 | 24.7 | 19.7 | 22.3 | -15 | 1 | 0 | 402 |
| Raphael Lessard | 62.8 | 17.0 | 25.7 | 25.7 | 21.7 | -33 | 1 | 0 | 385 |
| Ryan Truex | 62.3 | 29.0 | 22.7 | 24.3 | 21.3 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 371 |
| Hailie Deegan | 61.5 | 26.0 | 18.7 | 20.7 | 21.0 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 399 |
| Timothy Peters | 58.6 | 19.0 | 20.3 | 22.3 | 22.7 | -7 | 0 | 0 | 399 |
| Chase Purdy | 57.7 | 23.3 | 24.3 | 24.0 | 22.3 | -31 | 0 | 4 | 400 |
| Spencer Davis | 56.3 | 29.0 | 23.0 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 266 |
| Tate Fogleman | 50.4 | 25.7 | 29.0 | 27.3 | 27.7 | -7 | 1 | 0 | 392 |
| Danny Bohn | 50.2 | 22.7 | 29.7 | 23.7 | 27.3 | -28 | 1 | 0 | 399 |
| Dawson Cram | 46.4 | 26.0 | 27.3 | 27.7 | 28.3 | -42 | 0 | 0 | 397 |
| Jordan Anderson | 46.3 | 29.3 | 26.3 | 27.3 | 26.3 | -29 | 0 | 0 | 397 |
| Bret Holmes | 42.2 | 35.0 | 29.0 | 32.0 | 29.0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 370 |
| Kris Wright | 38.8 | 19.5 | 33.0 | 29.0 | 32.5 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 267 |
| Cory Roper | 37.6 | 30.5 | 31.0 | 31.5 | 31.5 | -13 | 0 | 0 | 238 |
| Spencer Boyd | 34.2 | 28.3 | 33.0 | 30.0 | 33.0 | -23 | 0 | 0 | 392 |
| Jennifer Jo Cobb | 29.8 | 35.3 | 37.7 | 34.7 | 37.0 | -15 | 0 | 0 | 353 |
| Norm Benning | 24.6 | 36.3 | 39.7 | 37.3 | 39.0 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 237 |
Betting Targets
In terms of betting odds, I feel like John Hunter Nemechek is reaching a range where we are unable to bet him at near 2-1 odds. Granted, Nemechek deserves the favorite status and likely deserves the odds that he is getting. Simply put, Nemechek has been amazing. However, it does not take but the slightest mistake for a race to be ruined at Darlington and based on that concept; I believe we can put focus on guys like Austin Hill or Sheldon Creed that have better odds but are also deserving of their favorite status. Personally, I love the value Creed is receiving among the top 3 guys and therefore he is my favorite pick for outright win odds.
For H2H match-ups, I have two drivers targeted for sharp value this week surrounding Stewart Friesen and Derek Kraus. I mentioned Friesen’s name earlier because the #52 team has likely been the most improved group dating back to last year. Outside of Nemechek, Friesen has the highest average running position among all drivers at the intermediate speedways. Additionally, Friesen has traditionally produced strong results at the low-grip venues likely due to his dirt experience. Therefore, I feel like all signs are pointing in the right direction for Friesen this week.
Derek Kraus may be a surprise this week because in all honesty; the #19 team has not been great this year. However, I will remind bettors that drivers will make the bigger difference this week compared to outright speed. Kraus posted his best finish of his career, as a rookie, last season at Darlington which resulted in a 2nd place finish. Outside of the road course, Kraus posted his best finish of the season at Atlanta which is another venue with similar surface conditions. Considering Kraus has been paired against bottom-tier talent in recent weeks, I think this is an excellent spot to back the #19 to produce sharp value.
Drivers to Fade
In the last few weeks, I believe my “fade” targets have been relatively spot on in the Truck Series. With that being said, I don’t see many drivers that truly stand out for undeniable fade opportunities this week. I never like to force a specific narrative therefore I am going to keep this week’s fade list relatively brief. However, I do believe that guys like Zane Smith and Chandler Smith are being overvalued based on early match-up pairings. Both drivers struggled at Darlington last year and Chandler Smith has struggled throughout the 2021 season. Again these are not outright fades, but I like the drivers being paired against them this week.
Draftkings LiftKits4Less.com 200 Optimal Lineup
2021 LiftKits4Less.com 200 Betting Picks
*Final*
Sheldon Creed +550 (1 unit)Austin Hill +600 (1 unit)
Stewart Friesen +2500 (.5 unit)
Derek Kraus +4000 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Sheldon Creed -115 over Zane Smith (3 units)Stewart Friesen -110 over Chandler Smith (3 units)
Derek Kraus -120 over Tanner Gray (3 units)
Derek Kraus +1300 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Stewart Friesen +750 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
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