2021 Wise Power 200 Race Picks
- Updated: April 30, 2021
Saturday May 1st, 2021. 7:30PM (EST) at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
Though the Xfinity Series has the week off, the rest of NASCAR’s touring series will be in action this weekend at Kansas Speedway. The ARCA Menards Series will host the opening green flag of the weekend at Kansas Speedway and the Camping World Truck Series will take center stage under the lights with the running of the Wise Power 200. Once again, Kyle Busch will step down to join the Truck Series action as the overall betting favorite. Busch has participated in 3 of the last 4 Truck Series events but surprisingly has just one victory (Atlanta) in those starts. In the other two starts at Las Vegas and Richmond, Busch finished runner-up behind KBM teammate John Hunter Nemechek. Needless to say, this Saturday’s Wise Power 200 will likely shine on the KBM duo once again as both drivers attempt to earn another trip to victory lane.
Through 6 races this season in the Camping World Truck Series, Ben Rhodes (2) and John Hunter Nemechek (2) are the only series regulars to capture victories. Busch’s win at Atlanta and Martin Truex’s victory at Bristol are the only additional winners. Needless to say, guys like reigning series champion Sheldon Creed, Austin Hill, and Zane Smith are just a small sample of popular names that are still searching for their first victory of the season. Not to mention, we also have several of the series’ veterans like Matt Crafton, Johnny Sauter, Stewart Friesen, and others that are capable of striking gold on any given weekend. While I am anxiously waiting to see different names contend for the victory, I think the odds are stacked against those drivers yet again this week.
Kansas Speedway is a 1.5 mile surface with progressive banking and relatively considerable amount of grip. Drivers will be full throttle on new tires which means this race will favor the trucks/teams with the most speed and the talents that can keep their foot on the pedal when tires start to wear late in runs. Obviously, both of those factors favor the KBM duo of Busch and Nemechek when discussing names for the outright victory. Due to risky betting odds among the top drivers, I will keep the majority of my betting focus on H2H match-ups this week which will likely provide the most value as we have seen throughout the season in the Truck Series.
Loop Data
Though the sample size is small, I compiled loop data results from the prior two races (Las Vegas & Atlanta) at 1.5 mile venues. Smaller sample sizes often create misleading results especially if one driver did exceptionally well or had a bad finish. In the case for the Atlanta and Las Vegas events, both races unfolded in a benign manner. Therefore, I believe these two events give a solid baseline towards performance trends going into this week’s race at Kansas.
Through these combined averages, we clearly see the dominance from the KBM duo of Kyle Busch and John Hunter Nemechek who have nearly identical statistics pertaining to average rating, fastest laps, and laps led. From this data alone, I think bettors could make an argument to take John Hunter Nemechek since he is receiving significantly better odds than Kyle Busch. Looking past the KBM duo, Austin Hill, Matt Crafton, Stewart Friesen, and Zane Smith are the only other drivers with 100 plus average ratings. Friesen’s name may be a slight surprise due to the #52 team’s 2020 campaign but they have shown solid speed throughout the first few races. On the other side of the spectrum, Brett Moffitt, Chandler Smith, and Raphael Lessard are greatly under performing compared to expectations.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Laps | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | 136.5 | 15.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 23 | 53 | 118 | 264 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 136.3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 52 | 115 | 264 |
| Austin Hill | 111.3 | 18.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 30 | 17 | 0 | 264 |
| Matt Crafton | 107.9 | 3.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | -2 | 4 | 3 | 264 |
| Stewart Friesen | 106.9 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 7.0 | 7 | 24 | 14 | 4 | 264 |
| Zane Smith | 100.6 | 19.5 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 264 |
| Sheldon Creed | 98.6 | 5 | 15.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | -6 | 9 | 7 | 264 |
| Grant Enfinger | 96.8 | 18.5 | 13.5 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 264 |
| Ben Rhodes | 93.2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 263 |
| Johnny Sauter | 90.2 | 12 | 15.5 | 9.5 | 13 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 264 |
| Brett Moffitt | 88.4 | 13.5 | 10 | 10 | 11.5 | 37 | 4 | 13 | 264 |
| Parker Kligerman | 77.7 | 27.5 | 20 | 11 | 16 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 263 |
| Tanner Gray | 77.0 | 18 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 14.5 | -23 | 1 | 0 | 263 |
| Todd Gilliland | 75.8 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 15 | 15.5 | -14 | 0 | 0 | 263 |
| Tyler Ankrum | 72.0 | 23 | 7.5 | 26 | 15.5 | -4 | 1 | 0 | 251 |
| Chandler Smith | 70.6 | 9 | 21.5 | 27 | 23 | -26 | 13 | 0 | 258 |
| Derek Kraus | 69.3 | 18.5 | 25 | 22.5 | 25 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 255 |
| Austin Wayne Self | 68.7 | 12 | 17 | 18.5 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 262 |
| Carson Hocevar | 66.2 | 13.5 | 24.5 | 18 | 22.5 | -12 | 0 | 0 | 263 |
| Ryan Truex | 62.2 | 28 | 22.5 | 26.5 | 22 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 232 |
| Chase Purdy | 60.9 | 23.5 | 22 | 23.5 | 20 | -21 | 0 | 4 | 262 |
| Timothy Peters | 56.3 | 17.5 | 23.5 | 23 | 24 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 260 |
| Raphael Lessard | 53.8 | 18.0 | 28.5 | 34.5 | 23.5 | -39 | 1 | 0 | 245 |
| Tate Fogleman | 52.2 | 21.0 | 25.5 | 23.0 | 26.0 | -13 | 1 | 0 | 262 |
| Danny Bohn | 52.2 | 23.5 | 29.5 | 22.5 | 27 | -19 | 1 | 0 | 261 |
| Hailie Deegan | 51.5 | 29 | 21.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | -10 | 0 | 0 | 259 |
| Dawson Cram | 50.0 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 27 | -31 | 0 | 0 | 260 |
| Jordan Anderson | 48.8 | 26 | 24 | 26 | 24 | -30 | 0 | 0 | 260 |
| Bret Holmes | 40.6 | 36.5 | 29.5 | 34.5 | 29.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 232 |
| Cory Roper | 37.6 | 30.5 | 31.0 | 31.5 | 31.5 | -13 | 0 | 0 | 238 |
| Spencer Boyd | 36.3 | 29.0 | 32.0 | 27.5 | 32.0 | -12 | 0 | 0 | 259 |
| Jennifer Jo Cobb | 29.5 | 33.5 | 37.5 | 33.5 | 37 | -19 | 0 | 0 | 247 |
| Norm Benning | 25.0 | 36.0 | 40.0 | 36.5 | 39.0 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 195 |
Betting Targets
Aside from taking another stab at John Hunter Nemechek for the outright win, I’m not overly enticed to take many chances on underdogs this week. I have a feeling that Busch may dominate after a pair of runner-up finishes to Nemechek but let’s just call that a gut feeling which is not based on any handicapping metrics. If you want to take some chances to pivot against the KBM duo, I believe Austin Hill and Matt Crafton provide the most reasonable underdog value. Moving past the futures/win odds, the drivers that I am mostly targeting in H2H match-ups include both Stewart Friesen and Matt Crafton. Both drivers are paired against intermediate competition but have been strong at the horsepower tracks this season. Crafton’s average running position of 6th is 3rd best behind Nemechek and Busch. I have been favorable of the Thorsport Racing trucks move to Toyota and I believe we are seeing the early fruits to that labor. Meanwhile as I mentioned earlier, Friesen has shown positive trends that elevate his betting value against other drivers in his range of odds. Both drivers can be targeted favorably for Saturday’s Wise Power 200.
Drivers to Fade
Since the beginning of the year, I have posted Brett Moffitt’s name on the weekly fade list due to the downgrade in equipment Moffitt inherited over the offseason. Needless to say, I am not backing away from fading Moffitt until I get burned which has not happened yet. Another pair of drivers that deserve fade consideration include the likes of Chandler Smith and Derek Kraus. Despite the KBM equipment, Smith has vastly underperformed and as you can see in the loop data above; Smith has an average running position outside the top 20 in the last two 1.5 mile events. Smith did get into some trouble that causes some bias to that data but even if you look at the rest of the season trends; you will notice similar stats.
Meanwhile, Kraus was one of the most improved drivers at the end of 2020 but has failed to back up the strong finish to last year’s campaign. The former rookie has just 1 top 10 finish this season which came back at the Daytona Road Course in February. Since then Kraus’s best finish is a measly 13th place result at Atlanta. Lastly, the biggest fade of the weekend surrounds Cup Series rookie Chase Briscoe. Briscoe will be stepping down to Truck Series competition following a 2020 Xfinity Series campaign that produced 9 wins. However, Briscoe will be jumping into the #04 truck for Cory Roper which is not among the top teams in the series. Odds-makers are giving Briscoe way too much credit based on his name when he does not have the equipment to match.
Draftkings Wise Power 200 Optimal Lineup
2021 Wise Power 200 Betting Picks
*Final*
John Hunter Nemechek +400 (1 unit)Austin Hill +1000 (.75 unit)
Matt Crafton +2000 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Zane Smith -130 over Chase Briscoe (4 units)Ben Rhodes -110 over Chase Briscoe (3 units)
Matt Crafton -110 over Grant Enfinger (2 units)
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