2021 Ag-Pro 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday April 24th, 2021. 4:00PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Xfinity and Cup Series’ teams will go door to door on the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway this weekend. On Saturday, the Xfinity Series will have the luxury of waving the first green flag of the weekend with the running of the Ag-Pro 300. Despite just having 7 races this season, we have already seen several surprise winners stemming from the likes of Ty Gibbs, Myatt Snider, and most recently Josh Berry’s victory at Martinsville. On Saturday, the opportunity for another surprise winner is undeniable courtesy of the parity produced by superspeedway racing. As we prepare for a wild afternoon at Talladega, let’s talk betting opportunities with our 2021 Ag-Pro 300 race picks!

Before anyone gets too excited about superspeedway racing in the Xfinity Series, I must say that betting odds have been extremely disappointing to this point. I am hoping for better line movement closer to race time but that remains to be determined. At this point, we have the better half of the field listed at 15-1 odds or less which is simply outrageous given the complexity and unpredictability of superspeedway betting. I am likely going to throw out a couple of bets with decent ROI potential. However if we do not see better line movement closer to start time, this may be a very conservative betting event due to the odds conundrum.

Talladega by the numbers: Xfinity Series

Though Talladega has a reputation for producing surprise winners, history paints a slightly different picture for Xfinity Series competition. If you look back through the last dozen races over the past decade, the only true surprise winner came via Spencer Gallagher’s victory in 2018. Gallagher actually used a last lap pass to capture that victory and it was the only lap he led the entire race. In the other 11 races mentioned, it has been a very different story. Justin Haley has been the best superspeedway talent in the Xfinity Series in recent years and swept the 2020 races at Talladega. Former Xfinity Series star Tyler Reddick won the 2019 Money Lion 300 while leading a race-high 34 laps. Previous to those winners, the likes of Aric Almirola, Elliott Sadler (2), Regan Smith, Joey Logano (2), Kyle Busch, and Brad Keselowski all earned victories at Talladega. In nearly all of those races, those eventual winners were among the top 5-6 favorites in each event.

• The race winner has started within the top 8 positions in each of the last 4 races and in exactly half (15 of 30) of all Xfinity Series races at Talladega
• Chevrolet drivers have won 5 of the last 6 races at Talladega including the last 4 straight events
• A last lap pass has occurred in 6 of the last 10 races at Talladega in the Xfinity Series
• 7 or more cautions have been produced in 6 of the last 10 races at Talladega in the Xfinity Series; the lowest amount of cautions was 5 since stage racing began (2017 & 2018)
• In the Xfinity Series history at Talladega, only two winners have started outside the top 25 (Joe Nemechek in 2000 and Bobby Labonte in 2007)

Betting Targets

”Betting targets” is probably not the appropriate title this week because you could make arguments for numerous drivers. Additionally, I am not a fan of H2H match-ups at Talladega simply because of the circumstantial consequences of pack racing which produces multi-car wrecks that, more times than not, will affect the outcome of a match-up rather than driver performance. Therefore we don’t have drivers to truly “target” in the form of match-ups and/or props, instead we simply have to focus on drivers that perhaps deserve attention due to their knack for finding the front at the superspeedways. More importantly than the simple likelihood of drivers that have a chance to win, our real betting targets should have some foundation of betting value this week so we can ensure the risk we are laying in this superspeedway action provides sufficient ROI.

On that note, I don’t think anyone can argue against Justin Haley’s talent. After sweeping both 2020 races, Haley is listed as a near 6-1 favorite alongside teammate AJ Allmendinger. Haley has actually won 3 of the last 4 superspeedway races in the Xfinity Series going back to his other win at Daytona in 2020. Not to mention, we have seen the Kaulig Racing teammates work pretty well together in those races as well. The problem with Haley, Allmendinger, and even Austin Cindric who won back at Daytona is that the odds are just pitiful in terms of value. Great legitimate options but poor betting value. Perhaps the more intriguing option is the 3rd Kaulig Racing driver in the form of Jeb Burton. Burton finished 3rd in the Unhinged 300 at Talladega last June driving for J.R. Motorsports. At 20-1 odds, Burton produces the type of value we desire and seems to have the equipment/support needed to pull off a surprise victory.

In the intermediate logjam of drivers in the 10-1 to 15-1 range, it can be pretty hard to identify strong “value.” I do believe Harrison Burton and Noah Gragson are among your sharper picks. Gragson has become a seemingly respected superspeedway talent and struck gold last February in the opener at Daytona. We know Gragson will make the aggressive moves needed to get the victory but he is likely a boom or bust type of candidate. Meanwhile, Burton is likely one of the most overlooked threats this weekend among the top guys. If you look at the last 4 superspeedway races, Burton has one of the highest average running positions among all drivers. Despite some bad finishes, Burton deserves sharp attention and if his odds get any better (currently +1000) then he becomes an even better value play among the likely contenders.

Though history has favored the better teams in recent years, it’s hard to ignore the lottery style long shots at the superspeedways. A pair of drivers that deserve long shot consideration include Brett Moffitt and Gray Gaulding. Both drivers are underrated superspeedway drivers. Gaulding has consistently produced solid results in subpar equipment which makes him a live 50-1 underdog. Moffitt is currently listed at 25-1 odds and I honestly believe that number is too conservative. However, Moffitt was really strong back in February at Daytona and has shown a knack for finding the front in these types of races. I’m hoping Moffitt’s odds get better closer to race time and will keep him on my radar.

Fades and Fantasy Drivers

For clarity, I am not mentioning any fade candidates this week because I am avoiding most, if not all, H2H match-ups. If you really want a few drivers to fade, perhaps look into Riley Herbst and Daniel Hemric. Herbst has left Talladega on the back of the hook in both prior starts and has a relatively low average rating. Meanwhile, Daniel Hemric has finished outside the top 20 in 6 of his 9 career Xfinity Series starts at Daytona and Talladega. Hemric did post a career best 5th place finish in last year’s Ag-Pro 300 but his career averages suggest that is more indicative of his ceiling.

For fantasy options this week, I have a lot more suggestions for consideration. I always put heavy emphasis on starting positions at the superspeedway tracks for two reasons. For starters, place-differential carries more weight than dominator (laps led/fastest laps) points. Secondly, if you do have a driver or two that gets caught up in the Talladega “big one” then you still have a chance to cash your lineup if the other drivers do well because the chances of most lineups having wrecked drivers are high. With that being said, AJ Allmendinger ($10,600) is likely deserving of the top spot due to his 11th place starting position, which is better than most of the favorites, combined with Kaulig Racing’s success at the superspeedways.

Fantasy players could make an argument for any of the top drivers but I am personally putting heavier emphasis on place-differential value. Austin Cindric will be starting on the pole. Despite some risk concerns, Cindric could be a strong pivot against that philosophy after winning the opener at Daytona earlier this year and leading several laps. If I stay true to my narrative, Jeb Burton ($8,900), Brett Moffitt ($9,000), and Ty Dillon ($7,900) are some of the best value options on the board among the upper echelon of talent. Dillon is the cheapest option and has possibly the highest ceiling from the 16th starting position.

For the less popular names, Jason White will likely draw some higher ownership this week from the 40th starting position. White will join Ours Motorsports for the 2nd time this season after a solid 10th place effort in the opener at Daytona. At just $8,400, White could produce value with a mere top 20 finishing position. Outside of White, there are a host of additional bottom-tier threats with advantageous starting positions. Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,300), Joe Graf Jr ($5,700), and Jesse Little ($5,600) are cheap options starting outside the top 30. If you can avoid the extra price, Alex Labbe ($7,500) is also a good flier option that has produced decent performances at the superspeedways.

Draftkings Ag-Pro 300 Optimal Lineup



2021 Ag-Pro 300 Betting Picks

*Final*

Harrison Burton +1000 (.75 unit)
Jeb Burton +1600 (.5 unit)
Brandon Jones +1800 (.5 unit)
Brett Moffitt +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Myatt Snider +600 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Gray Gaulding +1000 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)