2021 FR8 Auctions 200 Race Picks
- Updated: March 19, 2021
Saturday March 20th, 2021. 2:30PM (EST) at Atlanta Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
The Camping World Truck Series and Xfinity Series will host a double header on Saturday at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The Truck Series will have the luxury of being the opening act when the green flag waves for the FR8 Auctions 200 at roughly 2:30PM (EST). In the last Truck Series event back at Las Vegas, John Hunter Nemechek scored a mild-upset victory over Kyle Busch and others to cash at 14-1 odds. This week, John Hunter is listed at very conservative betting odds on the heels of the Vegas victory which begs the question; could we see a repeat? We tackle those questions and breakdown our best betting options with our 2021 FR8 Auctions 200 race picks!
For this week’s races at Atlanta, bettors and fans should expect slipping and sliding combined with heavy tire wear throughout all races. Atlanta Motor Speedway has the oldest surface in NASCAR among 1.5 mile venues going back to the last repave in 1997. Despite steep banking that mirrors Charlotte and Texas, the abrasive surface at Atlanta yields minimal grip and heavy tire wear that will cause fall off in lap times in the realm of 2-2.5 seconds. Perhaps for Xfinity and Cup Series races, we can give some observable notice to the performance at Homestead a few weeks ago which shares some similarities despite a completely different racing groove. However the Truck Series did not compete at Homestead meaning we only have the performance from Las Vegas to provide a very low-level baseline of expectations.
Kyle Busch’s trends at Atlanta
From a handicapping perspective, this style of racing where the grip level will be near non-existent after 15-20 laps, bettors must side with the most talented drivers even if that means we will not find the most betting “value.” With low grip and high tire wear, these conditions favor the top talents time and time again. Unlike Las Vegas where handling and aerodynamic speed played a bigger factor, this week’s 1.5 mile speedway at Atlanta will favor the input behind the wheel. As a result, I have a hard time believing Kyle Busch will let another Truck Series victory slip away barring any misfortune. Busch will be making his 2nd start of the season following his runner-up finish to John Hunter Nemechek at Las Vegas just two weeks ago.
Interestingly enough, Rowdy has been fantastic at Atlanta in the Truck Series over his career. Busch has 5 victories in 12 career starts that includes 8 top 5 finishes. Busch’s 5 victories at Atlanta, in the Truck Series, are 2nd-most compared to all other tracks, trailing only Charlotte (8 wins). While those stats may cast some gloom into Sunday’s opening act, I have some more optimistic trends to share. Despite the 5 victories, Busch has only scored 1 victory in his last 7 starts at Atlanta. The most recent victory came two years ago but Busch has also encountered significant issues at Atlanta in 3 of the last 4 events failing to finish inside the top 20. While bettors should understand Busch’s winning percentage and probabilistic value going into Saturday, this could be another race where we can fade Busch simply based on the value in betting odds in the rest of the field. If Busch runs into trouble again which mirrors recent trends, we could capitalize if we have our money on the correct drivers!
The Favorites
If Busch stumbles or finds trouble, I think this race will likely be decided between 3 individuals which include John Hunter Nemechek, Austin Hill, and Sheldon Creed. In fact, I would probably list those 3 drivers in that exact same order. As stated so many times to my subscribers, John Hunter is an extremely underrated talent and I would not be surprised to see him score 7-8 victories this season. He has the experience, the skill, and the pure talent to outright win this race without any help. Austin Hill has routinely shined in the Truck Series on low-grip layouts. Just look at his prior performances at Atlanta and Homestead for reference. Last year, Hill led the most laps at Atlanta but could not hold onto the lead following a late restart which allowed Grant Enfinger to seal the deal. Still, the #16 team has shown excellent trends at tracks like Atlanta, Homestead, and Chicago which should boost bettors’ confidence this week. Meanwhile, Sheldon Creed has some serious talent, like JHN, that just needs more time to mature. I believe Creed and teammate Zane Smith have strong skill sets for a place like Atlanta. While I expect those guys to run well, I just have more faith in JHN and Hill if someone is going to beat Busch again.
Dark Horses
With Busch in the field, the chances of deeper dark horses cashing this week will be relatively slim. Just by simple odds, we would almost need something to happen to 2-3 drivers to provide the realistic upside in dark horse options unless someone emerges with a true unforeseen underdog performance. However, I still want to mention two dark horses that I believe are live going into Saturday and could possibly become H2H targets given the right pairings. The first driver that provides sharp value includes the #52 of Stewart Friesen. I was extremely impressed with the speed from the #52 truck at Las Vegas. If you recall, the #52 team struggled tremendously through the majority of 2020 after basically rebuilding the entire Halmar Friesen Racing Team. After showing some speed at the end of 2020, Friesen and the #52 team looked really solid at Las Vegas from a speed standpoint. If they can maintain the speed, Friesen will likely put together another strong run on Saturday because he strives in the low-grip conditions. This may be an excellent opportunity to jump on a team that has top 5 speed but being listed against mediocre competition.
Meanwhile, my other dark horse option surrounds the #88 in Matt Crafton. I have said on multiple occasions this year that Thorsport Racing would see better performance in 2021 with their switch to Toyota. Ben Rhodes opened the year with the first two wins for Thorsport Racing to prove that point valid. On Saturday, I believe Crafton will have a great opportunity to shine. Crafton has a “Martin Truex” type driving style that seems to shine on tracks that favor long-run speed. After showing solid speed throughout the first few weeks, I just think this is a great opportunity for the #88 team. If you also look back to Crafton’s last 3 starts with Thorsport Racing in Toyota equipment at Atlanta, he has finished 2nd, 30th, and 1st.
Drivers to Fade
I am going to keep my fade list rather brief and straightforward for Saturday’s FR8 Auctions 200. I have provided reasons to fade Brett Moffitt in every race this season and I am not backing away until odds makers lower their value for the former series champion. Moffitt simply is not in the equipment to match his performance from the past 2-3 years and has failed to crack the Top 10 in each of his first 3 starts. Lastly, I will also throw Ross Chastain’s name into the fade bucket this week. Chastain will be making his 1st Truck Series start of the season and continues to be given favorite style credentials. Just like Moffitt, I don’t have a lot of faith in Chastain with Niece Motorsports. Chastain made 9 starts for Niece Motorsports in 2020 and only posted one top 5 finish. Chastain will also be starting at the tailend of the field in the 40th position which means he will have an uphill challenge from the start. While Chastain’s fantasy value is very optimistic from the 40th starting spot, that is not the case in H2H matchups. Therefore, I feel like this is an excellent opportunity to fade high-profile names, between Moffitt and Chastain, in under performing equipment.
Draftkings FR8 Auctions 200 Optimal Lineup
2021 FR8 Auctions 200 Betting Picks
*Final*
John Hunter +600 (1 unit)Austin Hill +1200 (.75 unit)
Stewart Friesen +2800 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Stewart Friesen -115 over Brett Moffitt (4 units)Related Posts
