2021 Bucked Up 200 Race Picks
- Updated: March 4, 2021
Friday March 5th, 2021. 3:30PM (EST) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
On the heels of a relaxing “off” weekend, the Camping World Truck Series will return to action this Friday, under the lights, at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Through the opening two races at Daytona which included both the superspeedway and the road course, Ben Rhodes has emerged as the new ‘alpha’ in the Truck Series. Despite just 3 wins in the last 4 seasons, Rhodes has scored back to back victories to start the year in relatively dominant fashion. On Friday, the Truck Series will get their first taste of 1.5 mile speedway action at Las Vegas where coincidentally Rhodes scored his 1st career win back in 2017. Will Rhodes be able to score the hat trick? Find out our thoughts as we provide our 2021 Bucked Up 200 race picks for Vegas!
Unlike last weekend when Xfinity and Cup Series teams were able to compete at Homestead-Miami Speedway, this will be the first intermediate speedway race of the season for Truck Series’ teams and drivers. Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5 mile cookie cutter layout with a decent amount of grip and the surface produces low-to-mid tire wear. For the Truck Series, drivers are able to stay in the throttle nearly the entire lap. While raw speed will definitely be a recipe towards success, drivers that are able to reduce the amount of throttle lift and muscle trucks through the turns will likely find their way to the front. The slightest lift of the throttle for ill handling machines will cost drivers a ton of time on the stopwatch.
Obviously these conditions are a perfect setup for Kyle Busch who will make his 1st Truck Series start of the season on Friday. The Las Vegas native has won each of his last 3 starts in the Truck Series at Las Vegas which has come in the spring in each of the last 3 years. Incredibly, Busch has dominated the last 3 spring races in Kyle Busch fashion by leading 273 of the 402 laps (68%). Even more remarkably, Busch has won 8 of his last 10 starts in the Truck Series over the last two years. Therefore while I alluded to Rhodes’ early season dominance earlier, there is no doubt that Busch will be the overwhelming favorite going into Friday night’s race.
Bucked Up 200 Betting Preview
From a betting standpoint, we really have a couple of simple options this week involving win bets for the Bucked Up 200. When Busch suits up for these Truck Series events, he is always a ridiculous sized favorite due to his elite win percentage. With that being said, it does create advantageous betting odds for some of the other drivers throughout the field. The problem is those drivers have rarely cashed because Busch has been so dominant in recent years. Therefore bettors are faced with the option of placing a couple of juiced units on Busch, fading Busch with value plays, or simply avoiding the win bets all together based on risk/reward evaluations.
Personally, the appetizing odds on the dark horses always piqued my interest for these events where we can pivot against Busch’s disgusting odds. Admittedly, that has not worked as much as I would have expected over the last few seasons. Still, the opportunity is there for a decent size payout if Busch runs into trouble and we put our focus into options that should be in the mix for the victory. Another thing to keep in mind is that this Friday’s Bucked Up 200 is the 1st race on a 1.5 mile surface for the Truck Series which means we really don’t know who are the trucks to beat, at least with a high-degree of certainty. Perhaps on that notion alone, we should keep things relatively conservative.
Betting Targets
Outside of Kyle Busch, Sheldon Creed and Austin Hill remain your top threats to take home a win this week. I imagine those names will be quite frequent at the head of the field this season but cannot be overlooked this weekend with the added betting value due to Busch’s participation. Hill captured a victory at Las Vegas last September and is listed at extremely generous 9-1 odds. In fact, Hill has won the last two fall races at Las Vegas which should elevate his status significantly but we are getting a value bargain in the form of betting odds because Busch is getting all of the attention. For Sheldon Creed, he may just be the best talent in the Truck Series. Creed has run really well at Las Vegas along with most other 1.5 mile speedways over the last year and I am a big fan of the speed GMS Racing has shown over that timeframe as well.
Personally, I do not like the 6-1 odds for Sheldon Creed. Despite his talent, I just want more betting value if I am going to suggest risky bets in fading Rowdy. Outside of Austin Hill, I believe John Hunter Nemechek strongly checks off all the criteria boxes. Bettors are getting near 15-1 odds on JHN who has more experience and outright talent combined than any other driver in the field. With Nemechek now in Kyle Busch Motorsports equipment, he has a legitimate opportunity to play the spoiler role in Friday night’s race. Another guy that should be on everyone’s radar from a value standpoint includes Johnny Sauter in the #13 truck. Sauter is a former Las Vegas winner (2009) and has recorded 7 top 5 finishes in 15 career starts which includes 3 different runner-up finishes of the last 6 races. I personally think the Thorsport Racing trucks will perform well this season in their transition to Toyota which has shown already in Ben Rhodes’ success. If the team truly benefits from this change in the form of raw speed and performance, Sauter is extremely undervalued at near 30 to 1 odds.
Drivers to Fade
Again, I would suggest H2H match-ups remain relatively conservative this weekend as we learn more about true performance on the 1.5 mile speedways. With that thought in mind, I would still elevate both Brett Moffitt and Grant Enfinger as strong fade opportunities. I mentioned in my pre-season preview that I expect Moffitt to take a step back this year due to the equipment disadvantage with Niece Motorsports. Las Vegas is one of those tracks where any flaws in the realm of horsepower, aerodynamics, or areas of equipment will show-up easily. Moffitt continues to be in the same betting range as the majority of the favorites and I just don’t understand that reasoning. Likewise, Enfinger is another driver that can likely be faded with high confidence this week. Enfinger will step out of the #98 truck, due to limited sponsorship, and will drive for Codie Rohrbaugh. Like Moffitt, this is a significant step-down in equipment for Enfinger who scored 4 wins just a season ago!
Draftkings Bucked Up 200 Optimal Lineup
2021 Bucked Up 200 Betting Picks
*Final*
Kyle Busch -120 (1.5 units)(cover play)Austin Hill +900 (1 unit)
John Hunter Nemechek +1400 (.75 unit)
Johnny Sauter +2800 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups
Matt Crafton -110 over Brett Moffitt (3 units)Related Posts
