2021 BrakeBest Brake Pads 159 Race Picks
- Updated: February 18, 2021
Friday February 19th, 2021. 7:30PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway Road Course
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
The Camping World Truck Series provided a tremendous superspeedway race in last Friday’s NextEra Energy 250 which resulted in Ben Rhodes winning the season opener at Daytona. On Friday, Truck Series teams and drivers will return to Daytona for the 2nd race of the season. Instead of an encore of superspeedway racing, NASCAR’s touring series will compete on the 3.61 mile road course at Daytona for this week’s events. If you remember, the Truck Series debuted on the Daytona Road Course last August for the first time in series history and despite concerns of adding another road course venue to the schedule; last year’s Sunoco 159 was a large success.
As a result, NASCAR added the return to the Daytona Road Course to the early part of this year’s schedule after losing dates with Auto Club Speedway as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore we have a unique scenario where NASCAR will race at the same venue for the 2nd straight week while providing a completely different type of product for fans. Fortunately for bettors, this week’s races provide a much better handicapping opportunity compared to the chaotic superspeedway racing witnessed last weekend. When you consider there will not be any practices, qualifying, or on-track activity before any green flags this weekend, we should be able to lean heavily on road course skill sets and prior history to help identify the best betting targets.
Daytona Road Course History
Unlike the Cup Series who recently competed on the Daytona Road Course in the Busch Clash last Tuesday, Camping World Truck Series’ teams and drivers have only participated on the 3.61 mile layout once which came last August in the Sunoco 159. In that event, Sheldon Creed and Brett Moffitt controlled the vast majority of the race leading 32 of the 44 overall laps. Creed eventually pulled out the victory which was the 2nd of his career at the time. In reality, Creed’s win last August was the catalyst for the #2 team that went on to win 3 more times in the following weeks including a championship trophy at Phoenix.
Due to the schedule changes last year, the Sunoco 159 at Daytona Road Course was the only race at a road course venue for the Truck Series in 2020. The last road course event prior to Daytona in 2020 was at Bowmanville (Canadian Tire Motorsports Park) in 2019. Brett Moffitt emerged victorious in that event following a dominating performance which shows his road course skills extend far beyond last year’s inaugural race at Daytona. Unfortunately, there is not a wide array of road course data in the Truck Series to analyze with their only being one prior event at Daytona’s road layout.
However, the one constant we have seen across all of NASCAR’s series is that the best raw talents behind the wheel typically shine. Contrary to popular belief, “track” experience is not necessarily the most important benefactor for success at the road courses. We have seen veterans like Johnny Sauter and Grant Enfinger struggled immensely at similar layouts despite having as much experience as anyone in the field. If road course racing is not part of a driver’s background or strong skill set, experience does not always pay big dividends.
Betting Targets
I mentioned last week that Sheldon Creed took a huge step forward in 2020 which may be obvious due to the fact that he captured the championship. However, I would still warn bettors that the young driver still has a lot of development ground to gain and I expect him to be even better in 2021. Due to last year’s success at Daytona as well as most tracks where driver input yields the most advantage, Creed deserves to be the overall favorite going into Friday night’s race. Many bettors will justifiably put Brett Moffitt in a similar betting range and perhaps he deserves that respect on talent. My problem with Moffitt is that I am just not a fan of the equipment he is occupying this season with Niece Motorsports and that is why I am personally downgrading his chances this Friday.
Outside of the potential top two drivers, things get interesting throughout the rest of the field. Matt Crafton and Austin Hill have shown solid skills at the road course layouts and were strong at Daytona in 2020. Based on raw skill, Zane Smith and John Hunter Nemechek are going to have big years if things go like I expect. JHN should be a championship contender and has shown flashes of road course talent in the past, just ask Cole Custer. With that being said, I’m just not very confident there is enough odds (futures) value in the likes of Smith, Nemechek, and Ben Rhodes to warrant much betting attention unless things improve closer to race time.
My favorite betting targets going into Friday night’s event surround the likes of Raphael Lessard and Tyler Ankrum out of the GMS Racing stable. I don’t want to sound crazy but both drivers have the skills to surprise in this event and perhaps even get a win if things get really crazy. Lessard finished 3rd in the Sunoco 159 last August and was among the most improved drivers throughout the 2nd half of the season. GMS Racing had a breakout season in 2020 so while many may look at Lessard’s departure from Kyle Busch Motorsports as a downgrade; I would not be surprised if we continue to see improvement and Friday presents a great opportunity for that scenario to play out.
Likewise, Tyler Ankrum has also shown some undervalued road course skills in limited appearances. Ankrum has posted average driver ratings of 90+ in his only two starts, on road courses, resulting in finishes of 9th and 6th. When you consider Ankrum is usually paired against mediocre to subpar competitors, this could be an excellent opportunity to extract value in the form of match-ups on a few drivers that have tremendous upside.
Drivers to Fade
I will make this section relatively quick regarding drivers to consider fading on Friday. Towards the top of my list includes Johnny Sauter who has struggled in a big way at the road courses throughout his career. In 8 career starts in the Truck Series on road course layouts, Sauter has never cracked the top 5. Meanwhile, I would also add Derek Kraus to the list of drivers that deserve outright fade consideration. Kraus looked like a “lost puppy” at this race last year and it is very clear that he has minimal road course experience. If we can find value in the drivers paired against Kraus this week, I would consider all green lights for fading the #19 truck.
Draftkings BrakeBest Brake Pads 159 Predictions at Daytona
Without qualifying or practices ahead of Friday’s race, I feel like handicappers can apply expectations in an advantageous manner to Draftkings lineups this week. Unlike the chaotic superspeedway racing that is based around luck, we have a clear edge this week if our predictions come to fruition. More importantly, we can capitalize on last week’s superspeedway chaos which has caused some shake-ups in the starting lineup this week based on the rulebook.
As a result, drivers like Todd Gilliland, Tyler Ankrum, Stewart Friesen, and Brett Moffitt deserve strong fantasy consideration due to the fact they will all be starting outside the top 20. I know I said earlier that I downgraded Moffitt’s winning potential based on his equipment but he could be considered a fantasy anchor from the 21st starting position. Meanwhile, drivers like Tanner Gray and Sam Mayer will be starting deep in the field. Mayer scored one of the biggest surprise wins of the season in 2020 at Bristol and will be making a few Xfinity Series starts this season for JR. Motorsports. While his road course skills can be questioned, he provides some value from the 36th starting position.
Ultimately, I remained convinced that Sheldon Creed, Raphael Lessard, and Brett Moffitt are your best core drivers to build fantasy lineups around. However, I would not be surprised to see guys like Austin Hill, Kaz Grala, Tanner Gray, and Sam Mayer all return value based on their asking price this week. If you want to flex a few lineups with more of the guys starting deeper in the field, that would probably be a strong GPP strategy if things happened to Creed, JHN, or Ben Rhodes who will obviously gain some ownership due to their reputations.
2021 BrakeBest Brake Pads 159 Betting Picks
*Final*
Sheldon Creed +450 (1 unit)Matt Crafton +1200 (.75 unit)
Raphael Lessard +2800 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups
Sheldon Creed -135 over John Hunter Nemechek (3 units)Raphael Lessard -115 over Todd Gilliland (3 units)
Matt Crafton -115 over Zane Smith (2 units)
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