NASCAR Cup Series Championship Betting Preview
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
We are less than 3 weeks away from the opening command to fire the engines for the 63rd running of the Daytona 500 which will officially wave the green flag on another exciting year in motorsports. Recently, we discussed many of the notable driver and team changes that will take effect in the upcoming season of racing. As we continue to move one step closer to the opening green flag of the year, we turn our focus towards the early betting odds involving the 2021 Cup Series Championship to ultimately discuss the drivers that are worthy of consideration for a run at the title. Take a look as I share a few early championship betting options and breakdown the top 12 picks for the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.
Championship Betting Strategy
If you are new to NASCARWagers, I always like to provide explanatory advice for betting strategies whether it surrounds championship odds or weekly race predictions. Personally, I have never experienced an overwhelming advantage in early championship odds. Typically championship odds are relatively conservative from a value standpoint and rarely has the eventual championship winner ever produced extreme value in terms of early odds. As a result, I believe the best strategy for betting the championship involves a compounded betting approach by adding bets throughout the season.
Since the 2003 season, the eventual Cup Series Champion has won a minimum of 3 races over the course of the season. Therefore, Cup Series champions are rarely a big surprise in terms of betting outcomes. However, we are able to gauge performance on a weekly or monthly basis to determine the drivers that are emerging with championship potential. If we use this performance observation to place small compounding bets throughout the season, we can take advantage of fluctuating odds and place our money in areas where probability steers us towards overall profit. With that being said, let’s discuss the best current betting options involving the 2021 Cup Series Championship as we approach the 1st official race of the year.
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Top 12 bets for the 2021 Cup Series Championship
*Rankings are based on probability combined with betting odds in terms of realistic value
#12 Christopher Bell +5000
Christopher Bell did not have the rookie season that many experts expected. Bell finished his rookie season with 2 top 5 finishes and 7 top 10 finishes which surprisingly fell behind both Cole Custer and Tyler Reddick in the Rookie of the Year standings. However, I remain convinced that Bell is among the top talents in the 2020 rookie class despite what the results may indicate. More importantly, Bell will get the luxury of moving to the #20 car at Joe Gibbs Racing in 2021. Previously, Bell raced with Leavine Family Racing in the #95 car which was an alliance partner with Joe Gibbs Racing. The official move to Joe Gibbs Racing should provide an undeniably more promising outlook for the young driver. Bell recorded 15 victories over two seasons with JGR in the Xfinity Series and will have the opportunity for a breakout season in 2021. At 50-1 odds, Bell is one of those betting plays that is hard to ignore based on the long shot betting value.
#11 Kurt Busch +2800
Though Kurt Busch seems to be in the twilight years of his career, the elder Busch has found victory lane once in each of the past 5 seasons. As long as he keeps that trend alive or performs on par with his averages, he make the Cup Series’ playoffs which is half the battle towards a championship. Busch has made it to the Round of 8 in 2 of the last 5 years. With the improvement from Chevrolet powered teams, it would not be surprising to see Busch make another quality run at the title. At 28-1 odds, we are able to find just enough value for the inherited risk.
#10 Martin Truex Jr +800
Before anyone judges me for placing Martin Truex Jr at #10 on our list, remember this list is about probability and betting value. Truex did not perform to the expectations we have grown accustomed to with new crew chief James Small in 2020. Truex compiled 19 wins from 2017-2019 but found victory lane just once in 2020 and never seemed to be a true contender in the championship picture. Obviously, there is optimism that the #19 team can rebound in 2021 but unfortunately betting odds are not providing much value at a mere 8-1 odds. Personally, I did not see much from a performance narrative to expect a huge resurgence in 2021. As a result, Truex gets shuffled down our list because there are simply better betting options in this price range.
#9 Alex Bowman +2800
Considering championship odds are relatively conservative, Alex Bowman still presents considerable value at 28-1 betting odds following a 2020 campaign that finished 6th in the final standings. Bowman moves over to the iconic #48 team this season to take over in Jimmie Johnson’s departure. Bowman has shown considerable improvement in each of his 3 full-time seasons in the Cup Series and recorded a career-high 15 top 10 finishes in 2020. If we believe the Chevrolet teams will continue to improve as they did a year ago, Bowman will have another grand opportunity to continue his progression among the Cup Series’ top competitors which provides some considerate underdog appeal at 28-1 odds.
#8 Kyle Larson +1200
After getting the boot towards the beginning of the 2020 season due to conduct issues, Larson will rejoin the Cup Series with Hendrick Motorsports in the #5 car. Despite being out of the driver seat for nearly a full year, Larson actually improved his championship potential with Hendrick Motorsports. Despite some concerns of seat rust, Larson remains one of the most naturally gifted talents in the Cup Series and has an amazing opportunity in the windshield of the #5 car. At 12-1 odds, Larson provides some decent value among NASCAR’s most talented drivers going into 2021. If not for missing the majority of 2020, Larson would likely be ranked much higher on this list.
#7 Joey Logano +600
Despite not exactly being a favorite among the fans, Joey Logano has earned a spot in the Championship 4 in 3 of the past 5 seasons. Logano won the 2018 championship and finished 3rd in the final standings last year following a 3-win campaign. Logano appeared to be the most consistent frontrunner from the Team Penske stable in 2020 though Keselowski has earned more victories in each of the past two seasons. Personally, I have a lot of optimism for all of the Penske cars in 2021. Unfortunately, Logano has the worst odds out of the entire group.
#6 Kyle Busch +600
It seems asinine that Kyle Busch is ranked 6th on our list for championship bets. I still firmly believe that Rowdy is the best “raw talent” in the Cup Series. With that being said, it is hard to ignore Rowdy’s 2020 campaign which was plagued with disappointment. Busch was able to get a win at Texas which means he has won at least one race in each of his 16 full-time seasons. However, the driver of the #18 also finished with just 14 top 5 finishes which was the lowest personal mark of his past 5 seasons. With another crew chief change in store for 2020, it becomes more challenging to expect outlandish results. Due to the 6-1 betting odds, there are just better options on the board for championship bets in terms of value.
#5 Ryan Blaney +2000
If you look back at Ryan Blaney’s 2020 campaign, it will leave spectators with ambiguous observations. The relatively young talent was consistently among the top performers on a weekly basis but managed to produce just 1 victory on the season at Talladega. From a pure performance narrative, Blaney often showed the prominent speed out of the Team Penske cars. With at least one win in each of the last 4 seasons, I believe Blaney is knocking on the door of a potential breakout season. At 20-1 odds, Blaney has the most championship value out of the legitimate frontrunners for the title.
#4 Brad Keselowski +800
I really believed Brad Keselowski was a dark horse going into the 2020 Chase for the Cup. Keselowski appeared to be performing at a level not seen since his 2014 campaign and 2012 season which led to a championship. Ultimately, Keselowski finished 2nd in the championship race just one position behind Chase Elliott who won the finale at Phoenix. Still, Keselowski has won a minimum of 3 races in each of the last 5 seasons and remains among the Cup Series’ best talents. At 8-1 odds, Keselowski is getting slightly better value than some of the other favorites which begs for betting consideration.
#3 Denny Hamlin +600
With each passing season, Denny Hamlin is slowly but surely becoming the best driver in NASCAR history to never win the Cup Series title. In 2020, Hamlin recorded a career-high 7 victories including the Daytona 500, Southern 500, and Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead which displayed his undeniable talent across NASCAR’s hardest tracks. It may be hard to imagine but Hamlin has taken the lead in the Joe Gibbs Racing stable with 13 victories over the past two seasons which is the most among all Cup Series drivers. In many ways, Hamlin deserves a title but the championship continues to elude one of the best drivers of the past decade!
#2 Chase Elliott +600
Personally, I am not a big fan of Chase Elliott’s odds at just 6-1. However, Elliott deserves the utmost respect. The 25 year old captured his 1st Cup Series title in 2020 despite the fact that Chevrolet powered cars still trailed the Fords and Toyotas in performance. The expectation going into 2021 is that the Chevrolet teams should be at their best performance in recent memory. If that holds true, Elliott could easily make a run at a 2nd championship. With more road course races on the schedule for 2021, Elliott is a damn near lock for the playoffs and remains the most underrated talent in the sport!
#1 Kevin Harvick +500
Despite mere 5-1 odds, Kevin Harvick still gets the top spot on our rankings for this season’s championship. “Happy” has amassed 21 victories over the past 3 seasons and is coming off a career best 9 win season in 2020. Harvick has shown the skill-set to win at every track layout and remains the most dominant driver in the Cup Series. Harvick owns the most laps led (4,474) in 2 of the last 3 seasons by a relatively wide margin. Despite a recent run of bad luck in the Chase, Harvick still represents the best talent in the playoffs especially when you consider the championship finale is now held at Phoenix where he owns the most wins (9) all-time.
