NASCAR Cup Series Driver Notes
*Stats reflect start of 2021 season
Alex Bowman #88: Officially entering 6th full-time season (drove for BK Racing 2014-2015) and 4th season with Hendrick Motorsports. Bowman moves over to the iconic #48 team in Jimmie Johnson’s retirement. Bowman has shown improvement in each season throughout his youthful career including a career-high 15 top 10 finishes in 2020. Bowman’s best tracks reside at Dover and the ROVAL. Bowman has recorded 3 top 5 finishes at Dover in 10 starts and recorded finishes of 4th, 2nd, and 8th in 3 career starts at the Charlotte ROVAL course.
Anthony Alfredo #38: After showing flashes of raw talent in the Xfinity Series for Richard Childress Racing on a part-time basis, Anthony Alfredo joins Chase Briscoe in the Rookie of the Year battle in 2021. Alfredo will get the opportunity in the #38 car for Front Row Motorsports which has struggled in recent years. Though he has shown some flashes of talent, Alfredo has limited experience and will be taking a gigantic leap in less favorable equipment in 2021.
Aric Almirola #10: Entering 10th full-time season in Cup Series following a career best 2020 campaign. In 2020, Almirola recorded career-highs that involved 6 top 5 finishes and 18 top 10 finishes. Almirola’s only wins (2) stem from superspeedway action at both Daytona and Talladega. Almirola is also a very underrated short track talent with multiple top 5 finishes at Dover, Loudon, Phoenix, and Richmond.
Austin Dillon #3: Entering 8th full-time season in the Cup Series. Dillon posted a solid 2020 campaign with a breakthrough victory at Texas and ran surprisingly well at Darlington and Richmond during the latter part of the season. While the stats may not reflect overwhelming success, Dillon posted an 11th place finish in the points and an overall 16th place average finishing position on the season which is career-best. Richard Childress Racing showed promising signs of improvement in 2020 which is reason for further optimism in 2021.
Brad Keselowski #2: Entering 12th full-time season in the Cup Series. Former 2012 Cup Series Champion. Perhaps overshadowed by Chase Elliott’s championship at Phoenix, Keselowski finished in the runner-up position in the points and recorded 4 victories on the season which was his best since the 2014 season. Despite winning 5 races early in his career at Talladega, Keselowski’s biggest success in recent years have come on the shorter layouts. Keselowski scores wins at Bristol, New Hampshire, and Richmond in 2020.
Bubba Wallace #43: Entering 4th full-time season in the Cup Series and will have an amazing opportunity in 2021 with the newly formed 23XI Racing owned by Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin. 23XI Racing will receive technical support from Joe Gibbs Racing which provides Wallace the best opportunity of his career. Wallace’s best moments in his Cup Series career have come at the superspeedways where his equipment disadvantage could be overcome. As 2021 approaches, look for Wallace to improve significantly especially on the shorter/flatter surfaces where his skill set shines.
Chase Briscoe #14: After an incredible Xfinity Series that captured 9 victories, Chase Briscoe steps into his 1st season in the Cup Series with Stewart-Haas Racing. Briscoe has quickly become one of the sport’s brightest young drivers with dominating Xfinity Series stats along the 1.5 mile speedways and a surprisingly talented skill set at the road course. Obviously, we should expect growing pains with all rookies. With that being said, Briscoe gets an excellent opportunity in a top-notch ride with the #14 team.
Chase Elliott #9: Entering 6th full-time season in the Cup Series. The former 2016 Rookie of the Year captured his 1st Cup Series Championship in 2020. With Chevrolet teams showing improvement, Elliott is starting to live up to the megastar expectations. The young driver has quickly become the best road course talent in the Cup Series with 4 straight victories at road course venues. Beyond the road courses, Elliott remains one of the most universal talents in the Cup Series with the ability to win on any layout.
Chris Buescher #17: Entering 6th full-time season in Cup Series. I expected Chris Buescher to take a step forward in 2020 with Roush-Fenway Racing and that is exactly what happened. While the results were modest, Buescher recorded career highs in top 5 finishes (2) and top 10 finishes (8). While his 2021 expectations will be similar to 2020, Buescher remains one of the most underrated superspeedway talents in the series and provides the big underdog potential that bettors desire.
Christopher Bell #20: After a brief stint with Leavine Family Racing, Christopher Bell moves to the #20 team with Joe Gibbs Racing in his 2nd full season in the Cup Series. The 2020 campaign was disappointing for the most hyped rookie in recent years but he will have every opportunity to rebound in 2021. In the Cup Series, Bell has not identified any clear trends to this point in his career but was absolutely dominant throughout his tenure in the Xfinity Series on the short tracks.
Cole Custer #41: Despite one of the most talented rookie classes in recent memory, Cole Custer emerged as the 2020 Rookie of the Year beating out the likes of Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, and John Hunter Nemechek. Custer’s 2020 campaign was highlighted by his huge underdog win at Kentucky. In his young career, Custer has definitely shown better trends on the flatter surfaces which correlates with his Xfinity Series success. Expect to see Custer continue to improve in his 2nd full season in the Cup Series.
Denny Hamlin #11: Entering 16th full-time season in Cup Series and on the heels of his best season following a 7 win season in 2020. Hamlin has captured 13 wins over the past two years which is tied with Kevin Harvick for the most in the Cup Series. More importantly, Hamlin now has 44 career wins and is 2nd on the all-time wins list for NASCAR drivers without a Cup Series Championship. Hamlin’s best tracks involve Pocono, Martinsville, Daytona, and Darlington. However, he has shown the ability to win anywhere especially in recent years.
Erik Jones #43: Entering his 5th full-time season in the Cup Series. Erik Jones will move to the #43 team with Richard Petty Motorsports after losing his ride with Joe Gibbs Racing. Jones’ best track remains at Darlington where he has scored 1 victory and 4 top 5 finishes in 6 career starts. Pocono and Bristol have also been strong tracks for the young driver. However, the major issue going into 2021 is the regression in quality equipment which will definitely hurt his performance.
Joey Logano #22: Entering 13th full-time season in the Cup Series and is the 2018 Cup Series Champion. Fresh off yet another solid 2020 campaign that featured 3 victories and 12 top 5 finishes, Logano made the Championship 4 for the 2nd time in 3 years. While he did not bring home the title, he continues to be among the Cup Series most consistent frontrunners. For bettors, take special notice when the Cup Series visits Kansas and Michigan which are among Logano’s best tracks. Also, Logano is one of the premier superspeedway talents in the Cup Series as well.
Kevin Harvick #4: Entering 21st full-time season in the Cup Series and is the former 2014 Cup Series Champion. Despite 45 years of age, Harvick still appears to be in his prime recording a career best 9 victories in 2020 and an amazing run of 20 top 5 finishes. Unfortunately, Harvick’s streak of 3 straight Championship 4 appearances was snapped but he remains a heavy championship favorite now that the finale resides at Phoenix where he owns the most wins (9) all-time. Harvick also routinely excels on the 1.5 mile surfaces and tracks that produce heavy tire wear.
Kyle Busch #18: Entering 17th full-time season in the Cup Series. After winning his 2nd championship in 2019, Busch had an extremely frustrating 2020 campaign that featured just 1 win (Texas) which ties his lowest mark since entering the Cup Series. Still believed to be the best talents of the modern era, Rowdy will try to get his rhythm back in 2021 with a new crew chief in Ben Beshore. Busch is the type of talent that can win on any given weekend. Statistically Busch’s best tracks are Bristol (8 wins), Kentucky (2 wins/6.3 average finish), and Richmond (6 wins/6.8 average finish).
Kyle Larson #5: Entering 7th full-time season in the Cup Series after his 2020 campaign was curtailed due to conduct issues. Larson was fired from Chip Ganassi Racing in April 2020 for using a racial slur during an Iracing session. After taking his talents to the dirt for the remainder of 2020, Larson will rejoin the Cup Series in the #5 for Hendrick Motorsports in 2021. The improvement in equipment combined with Chevrolet’s resurgence should give Larson a prime opportunity to take back control of his career. Largely revered as one of the most talented drivers in the sport, Larson’s best track is Michigan where he has compiled 3 victories. Larson also has shown serious skills at places like Chicagoland, Dover, and Bristol.
Kurt Busch #1: Entering 21st season in the Cup Series and likely in the twilight stages of his career. The former 2004 Cup Series Champion has captured 1 victory in each of the last 5 seasons with the most recent win coming at Las Vegas. The elder Busch is a 6-time winner at Bristol and has recorded 3 victories at several venues including Atlanta, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pocono. In recent years, has shown great success at Kentucky and the ROVAL.
Martin Truex Jr #19: Entering 16th full-time season in Cup Series following a relatively disappointing 2020 campaign. After recording 19 wins from 2017-2019, Truex captured just one victory last season at Martinsville despite 14 top 5 finishes. To be fair, it was the 1st year under crew chief James Small and they should have a solid foundation going into 2021. Behind Chase Elliott, Truex is the best road course driver in the sport. In recent years, Truex has become a much improved short-track driver and excels at all venues where long-run speed is important.
Matt DiBenedetto #21: Entering 7th full-time season in Cup Series and his 2nd year with the Wood Brothers. After moving to the #21 team in 2020, DiBenedetto posted 3 top 5 finishes and 11 top 10 finishes which were among career-highs. DiBenedetto posted two runner-up finishes both coming at Las Vegas which is wear Team Penske (alliance) cars were strongest last season. DiBenedetto should be solid again in 2021 and keep an eye on the #21 car at Bristol where he also runs well.
Michael McDowell #34: Entering 5th consecutive full-time season in the Cup Series. McDowell recorded a career-high in top 5 finishes (4) last season despite a 21st average finishing position. McDowell has rarely shown the performance nor consistency to consider for bettors. However, it is important to note that 6 of his 12 career top 10 finishes have come at Daytona.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr #37: Entering 9th full-time season in Cup Series. As expected, Stenhouse took a step back in 2020 following his departure from Roush-Fenway Racing in 2019 and joining the #37 team with JTG Daugherty Racing. Despite Chevrolet powered teams’ improvement last season, Stenhouse produced just 4 top 10 finishes. Despite the regression in performance, Stenhouse remains a quality superspeedway talent and traditionally performs well at Bristol.
Ross Chastain #42: Entering 3rd full-time season in the Cup Series. Chastain formerly drove full-time in Cup Series competition from 2018-2019 for Premium Motorsports in extremely underfunded equipment. After showing success in both the Camping World Truck Series and Xfinity Series, Chastain gets the best opportunity of his career in the #42 at Chip Ganassi Racing. While Chastain has had few opportunities in top-tier equipment, I am withholding expectations for his 2021 season until we are able to establish a performance baseline. With that being said, keep Chastain on your radar when Richmond rolls around based on his results throughout all of NASCAR’s touring series.
Ryan Blaney #12: Entering 6th full-time season in the Cup Series. Ryan Blaney has to look back at 2020 as a missed opportunity. During the 1st half of the season, the #12 car was among the fastest in the field on a near weekly basis but never could close the deal. Blaney did capture a victory at Talladega for the 2nd straight year for his only victory of the season. However, his performance was much better than traditional stats will show. Typically known as a 1.5 mile talent, Blaney has also been very good at Martinsville (top 5 finishes in 5 of 10 starts) and the ROVAL (1 win, 2 top 5 finishes in 3 starts).
Ryan Preece #47: Entering 2nd full-time season following a disappointing 2020 campaign that featured just 2 top 10 finishes. Preece ended the season with a 24.3 average finishing position which included 8 DNFs. Obviously, Preece does not have the best equipment but he has not exactly exceeded expectations either. The only tracks where he has shown some success, for betting consideration, is at the superspeedways of Daytona and Talladega.
Ryan Newman #6: Entering 20th full-time season in Cup Series. 2021 could be Ryan Newman’s final season as his contract is set to expire at the end of the year. After missing several weeks due to injuries sustained in last year’s Daytona 500, Newman’s return was disappointing as the veteran yielded just 2 top 10 finishes on the season which is by far the lowest total of his career. At this point, Newman’s career appears to be in its waning days and unless we see considerable change in the first several races; Newman is likely a weekly fade option given the correct circumstances.
Tyler Reddick #8: Entering 2nd full-time season in Cup Series. Despite losing the Rookie of the Year battle to Cole Custer, many could argue that Reddick performed the best out of the 2020 talented rookie class. As a rookie, Reddick racked up 9 top 10 finishes and displayed tremendous versatility with solid runs at Darlington, Bristol, Texas, Loudon, and at the superspeedways. Though his experience is limited, Reddick has shown tremendous ability on tracks with low grip layouts and remains one of the most exciting drivers to watch at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
William Byron #24: Entering 4th full-time season in the Cup Series after finally breaking through with his 1st victory at Daytona where he consistently runs well. Despite the victory, Byron did not take the huge step forward that many expected. The youngster yielded just 4 top 5 finishes. Former Hall of Fame crew chief Chad Knaus accepted the role of Vice President of Competition at Hendrick Motorsports and Rudy Fugle will come on board as the new crew chief of the #24. Fugle has produced tremendous results in the Truck Series for Kyle Busch Motorsports and it will be interesting to see if he can provide improvement for the #24 team. From a historical narrative, Byron has produced solid results on flatter surfaces and remains an underrated superspeedway talent.
