NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
For our 2nd edition in highlighting the major changes over the off-season, it’s time to take a look at NASCAR’s Xfinity Series going into the 2021 season. Last year, Chase Briscoe (9) and Austin Cindric (6) provided enormous breakout campaigns combining for 15 victories. While Briscoe’s success earned him a Cup Series ride with Stewart-Haas Racing, Cindric will return for another full-time season with Team Penske meaning he will grab a lot of weekly betting attention. Before we get too deep into weekly betting discussions, I want to highlight the notable full-time changes awaiting the Xfinity Series in 2021 and provide some initial thoughts as the new season approaches.
#02 Brett Moffitt: Moffitt nearly ran a full-time Xfinity Series schedule in 2020 despite only planning for a part-time schedule before the year began. Moffitt made the best of his opportunities with Our Motorsports in their first season in Xfinity Series competition. Despite having a program in development, Moffitt had flashes of success with strong runs at Talladega, Kansas, and most notably Richmond. As a result, Moffitt will move into a full-time role in 2021 though he will continue to race for championship points in Camping World Truck Series.
#2 Myatt Snider: If I am being honest, I sincerely believed this seat would go to Anthony Alfredo who looked really good in limited starts for Richard Childress Racing’s Xfinity Series program in 2020. Instead Alfredo landed a full-time seat in the Cup Series with Front Row Motorsports leaving the opportunity for Myatt Snider to come onboard the #2 machine. Like Alfredo, Snider also piloted the #2 car in limited capacity in 2020 with notable top 5 finishes at Bristol and Pocono. For the rest of the season, Snider piloted the #93 for RSS Racing which did not have the same quality potential. With the move to Richard Childress full-time, Snider should benefit in a strong way. While he has not shown the potential to compete for wins at this point in his career, he is capable of yielding solid underdog potential in H2H match-ups early this season especially with the extra road course races that tailors to his experience in NASCAR’s Whelen Euro Series.
#4 Landon Cassill: In 2020, Jesse Little drove the #4 car for JD Motorsports which yielded just two top 10 finishes over the season. Little will reportedly move to B.J McLeod Motorsports and Landon Cassill will take over the #4 car on a full-time basis. Cassill made 4 starts in the Xfinity Series in 2020 but it was more of a favor for Morgan Shepherd’s start and park program. The former 31 year old Cup Series veteran will get his 1st taste of full-time activity since his 2019 Cup Series with StarCom Racing. Cassill obviously has the experience to improve the performance on the #4 car and that is what I am expecting. However, this is not a driver nor team that we would place much betting focus around mainly due to inconsistency.
#10 Jeb Burton: As a racing fan, I’m excited to see Jeb Burton getting a full-time ride with a competitive program at Kaulig Racing. Burton fulfilled part-time duties with JR Motorsports over the last two years and performed well with top 5 finishes in 2 of his last 4 starts including a runner-up finish at Richmond. Kaulig Racing has progressed in each of the last two years which means Burton should have a great opportunity to establish a foundation with a decent program. I would not be surprised if he overachieved with the opportunity but we would probably want to see a baseline of results before establishing any betting expectations.
#16 AJ Allmendinger: Another big move from the Kaulig Racing stable includes AJ Allmendinger who has agreed to return in a full-time capacity in the #16 car. After losing his Cup Series seat at the end of 2018, the former tenured veteran made 16 starts with Kaulig Racing over the last two years. Despite the limited seat time, Allmendinger captured 3 victories including back to back wins at the ROVAL to cement his success with the #16 team. With Allmendinger returning to a full-time role, he will definitely deserve betting respect especially at numerous road course venues on the schedule for 2021.
#18 Daniel Hemric: After a distasteful departure with Richard Childress Racing’s Cup Series team at the end of 2019, Daniel Hemric was demoted to a journeyman role in 2020 which featured part-time opportunities with JR Motorsports. While Hemric never really established himself with JR Motorsports, he will move to a full-time role in the #18 with Joe Gibbs Racing. Despite a ton of bad luck over the last couple years, Hemric is still a talented driver that should be able to contend for victories in JGR equipment. Before his brief stint in the Cup Series, Hemric captured 16 top 5 finishes with Richard Childress Racing in the Xfinity Series in 2018. Despite being winless, Hemric is finally in position to exorcise those prior demons.
#98 Riley Herbst: Chase Briscoe delivered one of the biggest breakout stories in recent Xfinity Series memory in the #98 car in 2020 which resulted in 9 trips to victory lane. With Briscoe moving on to the Cup Series, Stewart-Haas Racing was left with a void for their Xfinity Series team. Ultimately, the team landed on Riley Herbst who is on the heels of a disappointing 2020 campaign with Joe Gibbs Racing. Despite relatively superior equipment, Herbst captured just 4 top 5 finishes in his rookie season and while he is still developing; I personally believe there were much better options for the #98 team to consider. The good news for Herbst is that he steps into a quality ride with excellent notes from a winning team that will be favorable for all the racing weekends without practices or qualifying.
