2020 Desert Diamond Casino West Valley 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday November 7th, 5:00PM (EST) at Phoenix Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take center stage at Phoenix Raceway for the running of the Desert Diamond Casino West Valley 200. The Xfinity Series visited Phoenix back in March. In that race, Brandon Jones scored an upset, over Cup Series veterans Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski, in just his 2nd career Xfinity Series victory. On Saturday, the stakes will be even higher with a championship on the line for the likes of Justin Allgaier, Justin Haley, Chase Briscoe, and Austin Cindric. Will the race be decided among the championship contenders or does another potential upset hang in the balance? Find out our thoughts as we provide our 2020 Desert Diamond Casino West Valley 200 race picks for Phoenix!

In terms of the race for the Xfinity Series Championship, I think we can call Chase Briscoe the clear favorite without much hesitation. Briscoe has compiled 9 victories this season in what has truly become a breakout season. In fact, Briscoe’s success earned him a ride in the Cup Series in 2021 so this Saturday’s race at Phoenix will be his only shot at the Xfinity Series title. From a pure talent standpoint, Briscoe is deserving of the favorite position as the most talented driver in the field. Additionally, Briscoe has historically finished strong, winning the final races in both his full-time seasons in ARCA and the Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series.

While Briscoe deserves the favorite status and perhaps respect from bettors, I honestly believe Justin Allgaier is in the best position among the championship contenders. Allgaier’s battle was to make the Championship 4 and now that he is locked in; we cannot ignore his success at these stylistic type layouts of Phoenix and Richmond. From a driving style standpoint, this race is tailor made for Allgaier who is also seeking his 1st title. Meanwhile, both Austin Cindric and Justin Haley are the underdogs this week. Cindric’s strength has come at the 1.5 mile tracks and road courses this season. He has never been a great short-track talent and that does not play into the #22 team’s favor this week. Meanwhile, Haley is perhaps the biggest underdog but a completely live dog as well. For whatever reason, Haley does not get the respect he deserves but this is also a track where his talent can shine. If you look back at the race in March, Haley was the highest finisher (5th) of our Championship 4. Therefore, do not completely count out Haley’s chances on Saturday.

Xfinity Series Championship Prediction

I’m not necessarily betting against Chase Briscoe from a betting standpoint this week. However, I am sticking with the notion that Allgaier is in the best position to prevail. Allgaier won both races at Richmond back in September which helped turn around the #7 team’s season. Phoenix has a lot of similar characteristics to Richmond with notably less tire wear. Still, this is a setup and track where Allgaier can take full advantage of compared to the 1.5 mile tracks where Briscoe and Cindric have been so strong. Therefore, I am sticking with Allgaier as my prediction for the Xfinity Series Champion!

Betting Targets

To be completely transparent, Saturday’s Desert Diamond Casino West Valley 200 is not shaping out to be an ideal betting event. Allgaier, Briscoe, and Cindric are all listed at less than 5 to 1 betting odds and there are 2 additional drivers (Chastain and H. Burton) that are listed at less than 8 to 1 odds. Simply put, there is not any value in win odds this week and that includes the drivers outside the championship race. Personally, I was looking at drivers like Burton, Chastain, and Haley as potential pivot options against the favorites. Those 3 drivers have the skill set to win this week at Phoenix however odds are just not providing enough return to outweigh the risk.

As a result, my betting strategy will be extremely conservative for this race. Perhaps due to the awful season, I should go out with a ton of risks and guns blazing however I just don’t see that strategy paying off for this race. If I had to choose the best dark horse in terms of betting value, I would likely side with Daniel Hemric. Though Hemric is still winless in Xfinity Series action, he has been really good in recent years at Phoenix and the #8 team provides the type of equipment to get the job done.For H2H targets, I believe both Ross Chastain and Justin Haley provide the best betting value. Both drivers have been really solid at the shorter layouts this season and have shown solid performance trends at Phoenix. Considering both drivers are somewhat underdogs, in comparison to the favorites, I think they provide the best H2H value going into Saturday.

Drivers to Fade

When I look at betting odds, I see several drivers that are overvalued which I alluded to above. However, I believe Austin Cindric is the most overvalued driver on Saturday’s card. For clarity, Cindric has not been “bad” at Phoenix by any stretch of the imagination. However, I don’t think the #22 will be good enough to win the championship nor beat out the majority of his championship competitors that he is paired against in most match-ups. For that reason, I believe Cindric is an ideal fade option. Another driver that deserves outright fade consideration includes the #51 of Jeremy Clements. Clements has been offered in low-tier match-ups and most books this season. If that happens again on Saturday, I would fade the #51 with complete confidence. These short-flat layouts are not Clements’ strength. In fact, he has only cracked the top 15 twice in 20 career starts at Phoenix. Therefore if match-ups are offered with Clements, we should consider fading the #51 without hesitation!

2020 Desert Diamond Casino West Valley 200 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Desert Diamond Casino West Valley 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Briscoe +350 (2 units)
Harrison Burton +800 (1 unit)
Daniel Hemric +1500 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups

Riley Herbst -115 over Myatt Snider (3 units)
Justin Haley +100 over Noah Gragson (2 units)
Justin Allgaier -155 over Austin Cindric (2 units)