2020 Lucas Oil 150 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series Betting Predictions
Friday November 6th, 8:00PM (EST) at Phoenix Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

NASCAR’s season will come to fruition this weekend at Phoenix Raceway as the championship each series is determined. On Friday, the Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series will wave the green flag for the running of the Lucas Oil 150 and first championship race of the weekend. Unlike Xfinity and Cup Series teams, the Truck Series has not participated at Phoenix this season which means the Championship 4 contenders will battle for the title without any practice or prior laps at Phoenix this season. As the championship anticipation builds, let’s take the opportunity to discuss our expectations of Friday’s finale and identify the best betting options for the 2020 Lucas Oil 150 at Phoenix!

To refresh everyone’s memory, Grant Enfinger, Brett Moffitt, Zane Smith, and Sheldon Creed are the drivers that will be fighting for the championship Friday night. With the lack of practices or races this season at Phoenix in the Truck Series, some could perceive that as an advantage for Brett Moffitt. Moffitt is a former Phoenix winner (2018) and has the most experience among the championship contenders in the Valley of the Sun. In fact, Zane Smith has never competed at Phoenix in Truck Series competition. Smith does have a start in both ARCA and Xfinity to his credit but never in the trucks. Meanwhile, Creed and Enfinger have both competed in recent years at Phoenix. Creed’s best finish is 10th in two starts though he has performed better everywhere in 2020. Meanwhile, Enfinger has 3 starts at Phoenix which includes finishes of 4th and 5th in the last two starts.

Obviously the championship predicament will be the popular focus of the weekend but bettors should be looking at the entire race from a holistic standpoint to find the best betting options. Though the Truck Series has not raced at Phoenix this season, the series did compete at Richmond for the first time in 15 years back in September. Richmond and Phoenix often draw similarities because the driving style and handling aspects to succeed are similar. In the race back at Richmond, Thorsport Racing cars dominated the event finishing in the top 3 positions. Our betting picks cashed with Enfinger at 22 to 1 odds and we can hope for similar possibilities again this week. The important aspect to preparing for Sunday is understanding the drivers that have typically shined at these stylistic types of tracks!

Truck Series Championship Prediction

When I analyze the championship contenders this week, I must say that Zane Smith and Sheldon Creed are on the wrong side of the expectations. Personally, I am pulling for Zane Smith. However, I just don’t think this style of racing is Smith or Creed’s strongest skill sets. I mentioned Creed has finished 10th and 12th in his prior two Truck Series starts at Phoenix and while I believe he will beat those finishes statistically; I don’t think this is a race that he will dominate or win which is normally needed to secure a championship. Therefore, my championship predicament comes down to Grant Enfinger and Brett Moffitt. Moffitt is the former Phoenix winner and former champion which likely is the most rational betting pick. However, I am going to side with Enfinger. I was thoroughly impressed with Enfinger’s performance last week at Martinsville. He had a 5th place truck but fought off everyone from passing him to secure his championship bid. I believe Phoenix strongly suits Enfinger’s driving style and if the Thorsport Racing guys can deliver a quality setup; I think Enfinger can get the job done!

Betting Targets

Though I am picking Enfinger to take down the championship, bettors should keep Brett Moffitt in close consideration. The #23 team has been the most consistent team all season and I mentioned Moffitt’s prior success correlations that make him a strong candidate this week. Moffitt’s win odds are not exactly desirable but I still believe he can be utilized in the form of H2H match-ups to yield profits. Another driver that I expect to provide sharp value includes the #99 of Ben Rhodes. Rhodes has been excellent on the shorter layouts this year but is largely undervalued on a weekly basis. Despite just 1 victory, Rhodes has 9 top 5 finishes this year including finishes of 5th at Dover, 3rd at Richmond, and 2nd most recently last week at Martinsville. As a result, Rhodes should be targeted for value in all formats.

If bettors want bigger dark horses, let me throw out two familiar names involving Johnny Sauter and Stewart Friesen. I know Sauter has experienced a disastrous season but I also mentioned last week that the #13 team has shown plenty of speed in recent weeks. I took Sauter in my betting card last week and it appeared like a sharp pick. Like most of my luck this year, Sauter cut down a tire while leading the race and was never able to recover. While we cannot control those circumstances, we should not ignore the fact that the #13 team has plenty of speed and Sauter has had plenty of success at Phoenix throughout his career. Meanwhile, Stewart Friesen is my favorite dark horse pick this week. The defending winner of the Lucas Oil 150 has the same narrative as Sauther involving plenty of speed but rarely has produced the finishes to show for it. I think Phoenix is an excellent setup for this #52 team to end the season on a strong note but they must avoid the bad luck bug that has plagued the team all season.

Drivers to Fade

I’ve stuck with the narrative all season towards fading Austin Hill at the shorter tracks and there is no reason to back away from that angle going into the final race of the season. Hill has posted finishes of 8th at Dover, 25th at Bristol, and 35th in last week’s race at Martinsville due to a blown engine. While the blown engine may yield bias to true performance, Hill was not exactly in top form before the engine expired last week which has been the case for most short track venues this season. Hill is normally listed among the betting favorites and this is a good spot to pivot against that stature. In 3 prior starts at Phoenix, Hill has never cracked the top 10.

Another considerable fade option includes Sam Mayer. The youngster’s expectations hit unrealistic heights following his win at Bristol. Last week at Martinsville, Mayer was listed in the top 5-6 betting favorites at less than 10 to 1 odds which is completely asinine. Mayer has struggled at these Phoenix/Richmond style layouts through all series he has competed in throughout his career and I will be looking to aggressively fade the #24 if he receives the same type of lofty expectations again this week.

Fantasy Options

I have already outlined the drivers that I expect to run well among the favorites above so I don’t want to be completely repetitive. However, the best value options for Truck Series drivers include Johnny Sauter ($7,800) and Todd Gilliland ($8,200). Both drivers are starting 16th and 22nd which provides some upside in the realm of place-differential. I mentioned earlier that I really like Sauter this week if he can just avoid the bad luck and his cheap price tag deserves fantasy consideration. Gilliland’s ceiling is likely lower than Sauter. However if you consider the price range, there are not many other options that can yield Gilliland’s value with legitimate top 10 potential. I would also include Ben Rhodes in that value range but his 6th place starting position is slightly more risky.

If you are looking for cheap bargain options, I would consider both Ryan Truex and Tyler Hill who are listed at less than $7,000. Both drivers will be starting towards the rear and should move forward. Truex has not performed as well as I expected in the NIECE Motorsports equipment this year but his experience should prevail at Phoenix to move the #40 truck forward. Tyler Hill will likely be a less popular option but he perhaps has even bigger upside. Hill has been a great fantasy driver this season recording at least 30 points in 7 of the last 8 races. Considering the price tag, he can provide some salary relief and still return value.

2020 Lucas Oil 150 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Lucas Oil 150 Race Picks

*Final*

Brett Moffitt +450 (1.5 units)
Grant Enfinger +1000 (1 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1800 (.75 unit)
Stewart Friesen +2500 (.75 unit)
Johnny Sauter +4000 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Grant Enfinger -130 over Austin Hill (3 units)
Johnny Sauter +100 over Tyler Ankrum (3 units)
Brett Moffitt +105 over Sheldon Creed (3 units)
Chandler Smith +140 over Sam Mayer (3 units)
Ben Rhodes -105 over Matt Crafton (3 units)