2020 Xfinity 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday November 1st, 3:30PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Just 500 miles remain to decide the final 4 drivers that will fight for a championship next week at Phoenix. Technically, the only driver that is locked into the Championship 4 at Phoenix is Joey Logano thanks to his victory back at Kansas. Kevin Harvick, who owns the most wins (9) in the Cup Series this season, is nearly locked-in on points thanks to a 42 point cushion. Meanwhile, Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski are both 24 and 25 points above the cut-off line and simply need to avoid any type of disastrous scenario that will include a poor performance or victory from one of the drivers below the cut-off line.

As a result, playoff contenders Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, and Martin Truex need to either win or hope for a semi-miracle in the form of maximal points. Kurt Busch currently sits in the 8th position in the points and is mathematically out of the championship picture meaning his only ticket to Phoenix would be via a victory in the Xfinity 500. Back in March, Martin Truex won his 2nd straight race at Martinsville in the Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 in relatively dominating fashion. Truex likely poses the biggest threat as the driver that could shake up the champion picture with another Martinsville victory but he is listed at just 3 to 1 odds which saturates any type of betting value in backing Truex’s run for a 3rd straight victory at the paperclip.

Personally, I continue to be extremely frustrated with betting odds and the absence of parlay options handicaps our ability to improve value on the favorites. There are 7 drivers that are currently listed at less than 10 to 1 odds which includes 2 drivers that are not even playoff contenders which is rather ridiculous from a historical odds narrative. Either way, let’s move into the discussion of the drivers that should contend for the victory in tomorrow’s Xfinity 500 and dissect the best betting options based on what is being offered.

Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Martin Truex Jr	116.5	10.0	8.0	3.4	6.2	40	104	299	618	2500
Joey Logano	112.6	5.4	5.0	7.6	5.8	-28	98	140	548	2500
Brad Keselowski	111.2	7.0	7.0	4.4	7.6	37	113	162	493	2500
Ryan Blaney	108.3	6.6	6.0	6.8	7.4	14	82	134	179	2500
Kyle Busch	104.1	7.2	9.6	8.4	8.8	-2	98	188	124	2499
Denny Hamlin	100.9	5.4	9.0	9.4	9.0	14	92	187	172	2497
Clint Bowyer	100.5	6.4	12.2	16.2	9.2	-5	105	145	216	2447
Kevin Harvick	97.9	11.2	9.0	8.6	8.4	11	138	92	0	2499
Chase Elliott	96.9	12.0	14.4	11.8	12.2	48	108	147	50	2445
Kurt Busch	92.8	14.0	11.2	8.8	10.4	31	152	55	0	2500
Aric Almirola	83.2	4.6	12.2	20.8	13.8	-12	102	101	19	2339
Jimmie Johnson	79.1	21.6	12.8	19.8	15.0	46	100	43	70	2358
Alex Bowman	76.8	14.6	16.4	14.8	15.8	-5	94	48	0	2494
Ryan Newman	75.3	20.2	15.2	14.4	15.8	-9	100	37	0	2496
William Byron	75.2	18.2	16.4	18.2	18.0	22	76	64	0	2360
Daniel Suarez	71.0	17.2	17.2	19.0	18.0	-16	104	22	0	2479
Chris Buescher	67.6	18.2	18.8	16.4	18.4	4	63	7	0	2495
Erik Jones	67.4	14.6	18.4	22.6	20.4	-46	59	17	0	2478
Matt DiBenedetto	63.6	21.8	18.0	22.2	20.6	-8	75	12	0	2439
Austin Dillon	63.1	22.2	25.4	26.0	23.6	12	69	61	0	2382
Ryan Preece	60.9	21.3	22.3	20.3	20.3	-6	46	3	0	1496
Bubba Wallace	59.7	26.2	22.4	21.8	22.8	49	74	23	0	2474
Ty Dillon	58.9	26.8	20.6	19.2	22.0	32	34	18	0	2491
Matt Kenseth	55.3	22.0	22.5	23.0	23.0	-4	6	2	0	996
Michael McDowell	54.5	20.2	22.4	22.8	23.2	-25	24	8	0	2484
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	53.0	18.4	24.4	23.4	24.2	-10	41	12	0	2476
Corey LaJoie	49.6	31.0	23.7	23.0	24.0	-9	10	0	5	1488
J.J. Yeley	37.1	33.5	32.0	30.3	31.5	-26	0	0	0	1971
Reed Sorenson	33.2	35.0	34.5	35.5	34.5	-10	0	0	0	747
Joey Gase	30.5	33.0	36.0	35.0	36.0	2	0	10	0	931
Timmy Hill	28.4	38.3	38.3	37.0	37.3	-7	0	6	0	923
Garrett Smithley	27.9	34.5	37.0	34.0	36.5	2	0	1	0	937

Martinsville is a half-mile paperclip shaped oval with a flat racing surface. When you compare speeds between Martinsville and the high banks of Bristol Motor Speedway, Martinsville is much slower. Drivers will speed plenty of time on the brakes and because green flag runs can stretch out to 130 laps; long run speed is very important. Typically success at Martinsville is learned from a unique driving style and that is why we can trust traditional narratives this week unlike many of the 1.5 mile speedways we have visited in recent weeks. In the last 5 races at Martinsville, Martin Truex Jr tops our loop data ratings with an average of 116.5 which is elevated thanks to the last 2 races where he has led a total of 596 laps which is roughly 60% of the total laps. Simply, impressive!

Behind Truex, the Team Penske trio of Joey Logano (112.6), Brad Keselowski (111.2), and Ryan Blaney (108.3) have sported impressive ratings as well. Both Logano and Keselowski won the prior two races before Truex’s win streak from 2018-2019. Keselowski is actually a two-time Martinsville winner and the best in the Cup Series at Martinsville in recent years. Keselowski has actually produced top 5 finishes in 8 of his last 9 starts which includes two victories during that stretch. Behind the Team Penske cars, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch have all produced triple digit averages. Hamlin owns the most wins (5) among all active drivers behind Jimmie Johnson. Meanwhile Kyle Busch has a lucrative 5.5 average finish at Martinsville over his last 10 starts.

Betting Targets

I am really frustrated that Martin Truex is listed at just 3 to 1 odds because I was debating going heavy if he was listed around the 5 to 1 range. Truex is my overall favorite pick this week. The #19 team and driver’s long run speed at Martinsville has been incredible. While we cannot always guarantee that Martinsville races will end with long green flag runs, the ability to have tremendous long run speed gives drivers and teams additional options to gamble with track position. It just creates a lot of advantages that can be used in several ways. I expect Truex will be among the best in the long-run speed department on Sunday which is something he has shown at all of the shorter flat surfaces that produce significant tire wear (E.g. Richmond, Loudon).

For H2H bets and fantasy drivers, Brad Keselowski is another high quality option due to his amazing consistency at Martinsville. Keselowski did not have a great car back in the March race but still managed to bring home a 3rd place finish. If the #2 team unloads a decent handling car on Sunday, it could be trouble for the rest of the field. Teammate Ryan Blaney may provide the most betting value for the top 6-7 drivers in terms of win odds. Blaney is listed at 10 to 1 odds with top 5 finishes in 4 of his last 5 starts at the paperclip. Lastly, I would also throw Kyle Busch into the same group. Granted, I want Busch’s odds to get better as they are currently around the 8 to 1 range. I mentioned last week that the #18 team was getting back into winning territory and backed him at his 14 to 1 odds a week ago. We will not see those odds this week but I would not be surprised to see Busch get near the 10 to 1 range closer to race time as I expect more money to flow towards the championship drivers.

Drivers to Fade

I’m staying away from fading any of the playoff contenders this Sunday simply because I expect the racing to be fierce and I have already been on the wrong side of every flat tire this weekend from the result of close racing at the front of the field. In fact, I think I have been on the wrong side of that scenario all season. Still, the playoff contenders are more likely to attempt desperate strategy calls late in the race that could ruin our H2H bets. As a result, I will be looking to fade drivers further down the ladder in the likes of Aric Almirola and Erik Jones. Both drivers have been relatively horrible at Martinsville without many signs of a trend reversal. Jones has only cracked the top 15 once in 7 career starts at Martinsville and that was a 12th place finish in his 1st start in 2017. Meanwhile, Almirola has just 1 top 10 finish in 9 of the last 10 starts at Martinsville with a dismal 21.9 average finishing position. Almirola has publicly stated that he struggles at these flatter layouts and the analytical data supports that narrative in an extreme way. Therefore, I feel we can confidently fade both drivers this week.

Dark Horses and Fantasy Options

For this week’s dark horses, I think you could point to the talents of William Byron and Kurt Busch as legitimate options that could surprise on Sunday. Byron, listed at $7,700 on Draftkings, is one of my sharpest picks in all formats this Sunday as he is extremely underrated in the eyes of odds makers. Byron has posted finishes of 2nd and 8th in his last two starts which provides legitimate fantasy and H2H upside. Sentimentally, I would love to see Jimmie Johnson make a run for his 10th Grandfather Clock but I simply have not seen enough from the #48 in recent years to place my money on him.

If you are looking for a few extreme dark horses or cheap fantasy options, I would include Ryan Newman as a candidate for consideration. I know Newman’s performance has declined but his stats at Martinsville are surprisingly strong; even in recent races. Newman has a 12.7 average finishing position in the last 10 races and seems to always find a way to run towards the front. At just $6,500 on Draftkings, Newman provides bargain value if he can just meet those averages. Another cheap solo fantasy option includes Bubba Wallace at $7,200. Wallace has a higher ceiling due to his 32nd place starting position. Though Bubba has run into bad luck in a few Martinsville races, he has finished 13th and 11th in his last 2 starts. This track actually favors Wallace’s talent and his inferior equipment should be able to produce a decent finish if he can avoid misfortune.

2020 Xfinity 500 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Xfinity 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Odds couresty of Bovada

Brad Keselowski +600 (1.5 units)
Ryan Blaney +1000 (1 unit)
William Byron +4000 (1 unit)
Ryan Newman +12500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

William Byron -130 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units)
Brad Keselowski -140 finishes Top 5 (2 units)
Total cautions over 7.5 (-130) (3 units)
Ryan Preece +350 wins Group 6 (McDowell, T. Dillon, and JHN)(1 unit)