2020 O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday October 24th, 2020 4:30PM EST at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

Last week, Chase Briscoe scored his most important victory of the season at Kansas to earn a spot in the championship finale at Phoenix. The win marked Briscoe’s 9th victory of the season which is the most wins for an Xfinity Series regular in several years and the most for a Ford manufacturer in series history. On Saturday, the Xfinity Series will turn their focus to Texas Motor Speedway and the running of the O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 as playoffs drivers look for another opportunity to secure their championship bid to Phoenix. As we prepare for the 2nd straight race at a 1.5 mile speedway, let’s take the opportunity to discuss the best betting options for Saturday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 at Texas!

Back in July, Austin Cindric won the My Bariatric Solutions 300 by default following Kyle Busch’s post-race disqualification at Texas. Normally when Rowdy suits up for the Xfinity Series races, he has a habit of dominating events but that was not the case back in July. In fact, Justin Allgaier led the vast majority of the laps (98) in one of his strongest performances of the season on 1.5 mile layouts which resulted in a 3rd place finish. Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric, who finished in the top two positions, both led more laps than Busch. Since the July race was semi-recent, we should expect those drivers to be strong again which is not really a surprise especially for Briscoe and Cindric who have dominated the 2020 season with 14 combined victories.

From a betting standpoint, odds makers continue to put unrealistic odds on both Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe who are both listed at less than 3 to 1 odds. Briscoe has now won 3 of the last 5 races including the last 2 events on 1.5 mile surfaces at Las Vegas and Kansas. Meanwhile after going on a hot streak over the summer, Cindric has cooled significantly and is winless in the last 11 races. However, Cindric’s odds still reflect his midsummer performance as a weekly overall favorite. Simply put, odds makers have completely saturated the betting value on both drivers. If we were at Homestead, Atlanta, or some other 1.5 mile surface with higher tire-wear, I would consider just going big on Briscoe and/or Cindric. However, Texas Motor Speedway has a high-grip level that yields opportunistic possibilities for underdogs or drivers that just happen to gain track position in the closing laps. Therefore, our best value must be found outside of the overall favorites this week as we hope to see a new face in victory lane!

Betting Targets

Last week, I pointed out that Harrison Burton and Justin Allgaier both had surprisingly strong driver rating averages from the loop data I compiled for the 3 races at Texas, Kansas, and Las Vegas. Unfortunately, both Allgaier and Burton underperformed last week at Kansas. However, I am not backing off my expectations again and will double down on both driver’s chances for Texas. I mentioned earlier that Allgaier had one of his best performances of the year at Texas back in July and this week’s event should provide an excellent rebound opportunity. For Burton, he has not exactly performed well in recent weeks compared to the start of the season. However, he is another driver that performed well back in July and also at all of Texas’s sister tracks like Charlotte and Atlanta. As a result, I am expecting both drivers to have strong performances this weekend.

Before I move into the potential dark horse discussion, I will elevate Ross Chastain’s status this weekend. I am still not a big believer in Kaulig Racing’s intermediate speedway program however Chastain quality performances and consistency cannot be undermined. After a 2nd place finish in this race one year ago, Chastain deserves some respect despite still being slightly overvalued in terms of betting odds. For true dark horses, I would consider both Ryan Sieg and Anthony Alfredo your best long shot possibilities. Nobody is giving Sieg much attention but he is having a career season which includes two top 5 finishes at Las Vegas (5th) and Kansas (3rd) in recent races. If an upset is going to happen, Texas is a great place for it to happen because track position is so important just as Austin Dillon proved back in July by winning the Cup Series race after staying out on olds tires during the final caution. Personally, I believe both Sieg and Alfredo are better H2H options but the long shot winning potential is still within the realm of possibility.

Drivers to Fade

Last week, I got unlucky fading Ross Chastain in multiple plays. Justin Allgaier had a terrible performance and Austin Cindric was caught up in a wreck in the opening laps. However, I did get the call on Riley Herbst correct and I am sticking with the #18 as a primary fade candidate again this week. In the last 4 races on similar surfaces which include Texas, Kansas (X2), and Las Vegas; Herbst has averaged a 21.75 finishing position and has finished inside the top 10 just once in the 1st Kansas race. We have a couple of candidates with value paired against Herbst this week and I will be looking to double down on fade opportunities against the #18. Another risky fade option that I think people should consider is Austin Cindric. At face value, is never comforting to fade the overall race favorite. However, the #22 team has not shown the speed in recent weeks to deserve the lofty expectations stemming from the results earlier this year. Obviously the #22 team has been fast this year and there is a chance that they could turn things around. However, the majority of match-ups fading Cindric has plus value odds and I think that is worth consideration based on recent mediocre style performances in recent weeks.

Fantasy Targets

For fantasy purposes, I would feel confident listing Chase Briscoe as my anchor this week. Briscoe has won 3 of the last 5 races including last week’s event at Kansas. Briscoe will be starting on the pole and I don’t see many people starting around him that should pass him in the opening laps which means the #98 should produce some extra dominator points. Briscoe is actually cheaper than Austin Cindric on Draftkings and I believe he may have the higher ceiling of the two unless Cindric suddenly finds the speed they showed at Kentucky. At $10,800, Justin Allgaier is definitely in the conversation among the favorites. Granted the #7 car has been inconsistent but he could also be a sharp pick among the favorites with less ownership

Michael Annett ($8,700) and Ryan Sieg ($8,600) are affordable options that could hit value despite the place-differential risk. Both drivers have performed well on similar layouts and should be able to keep their cars inside the top 10. If you can afford slightly more expensive options, Riley Herbst ($9,000) and Anthony Alfredo ($9,600) have upside potential with more advantageous starting positions. Austin Hill and Brett Moffitt have been finding quality finishes in the drivers in the $8,000 range. Meanwhile, guys like Myatt Snider, Alex Labbe, and B.J McLeod are decent fantasy options for drivers listed at less than $7,500. I don’t like many drivers this week under the $6,500 range but if I was forced with a dart throw, Chad Finchum at $4,900 creates reasonable value.

Draftkings O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Optimal Lineup

2020 O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +800 (1.25 units)
Harrison Burton +1000 (1 unit)
Brandon Jones +1200 (1 unit)
Jeb Burton +6600 (.5 unit)
Ryan Sieg +6600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Ryan Sieg +100 over Riley Herbst (3 units)
Justin Allgaier -125 over Ross Chastain (3 units)
Brandon Jones -130 over Justin Haley (3 units)