2020 Clean Harbors 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Betting Predictions
Saturday October 10th, 4:10PM (EST) at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

After a rare off week, the Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series returns this week for the start of the Round of 8 in the Truck Series playoffs. With just 3 races remaining for all series until the championship finale at Phoenix, it is safe to say that every race holds extreme importance for all championship contenders in NASCAR’s top divisions. On Saturday, the Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series will hold a double header with the Xfinity Series in back to back races at Kansas Speedway starting with the Clean Harbors 200!.

Back in July, Truck Series competitors competed in back to back races at Kansas as part of the schedule adjustments stemming from COVID-19. Both Austin Hill and Matt Crafton emerged from those races victorious and luckily we had Crafton at 18 to 1 odds to win the E.P.T 200. Therefore, I am anticipating another strong betting weekend in the Truck Series. Furthermore, this Saturday’s race will mark the first time in history the series will compete at the same track 3 times in the same calendar year. For bettors, the extra Kansas races are encouraging as we have plenty of performance data to analyze to help narrow down the best betting options for the Clean Harbors 200!

Loop Data

While I believe both Kansas races back in July are important towards our expectations for Saturday’s Clean Harbors 200, I also wanted to include the most recent results from Las Vegas just 3 weeks ago to compile loop data analysis for all 3 races. For those unaware, Kansas Speedway and Las Vegas share a lot of similarities and it is always important to include recent performance information for tracks that are reliant upon aerodynamic speed trends. Therefore, the loop data you see compiles both Kansas races and the recent World of Westgate 200 that was also won by Austin Hill at the end of September.

Without much surprise, Austin Hill tops the list in the compiled performance data during the timeline with wins in 2 of the 3 events. Hill’s average driver rating (124.7) is really impressive when you consider the two victories are Hill’s only wins this season in the Truck Series. Personally, I was surprised to see Zane Smith’s average rating at 116.5 because he has not been overly impressive at the 1.5 mile venues. Smith’s two victories were produced at Dover and Michigan and his 3 finishes for both Kansas races at Las Vegas featured modest results of 6th, 9th, and 7th. However, loop data stats include more than just average finishing position metrics and is elevated for Smith because he has the 2nd best (5.0) average running position through those 3 events.

The remaining top drivers in the loop data listed below includes many of the usual suspects. Matt Crafton locks in the 3rd position following his win at Kansas earlier this year and strong 1.5 mile trends. Brett Moffitt and Sheldon Creed have produced solid results which aligns with their overall body of work throughout 2020. Creed ranks 2nd in laps led (107) for the performance time frame captured which deserves some respect. Perhaps the more surprising metrics entail the likes of Christian Eckes and Derek Kraus. Eckes owns the 3rd best average running position (6.7) through the 3 races observed and Kraus is in the midst of the leaders with a triple digit average rating. I have been favorable towards Kraus’s improvement throughout the 2nd half of the season and he will once again be a solid H2H target on Saturday.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Austin Hill	124.7	10.7	9.7	2.7	5.3	37	100	33	123	402
Zane Smith	116.5	8.0	3.0	7.3	5.0	13	97	31	67	402
Matt Crafton	108.4	11.7	8.0	4.7	7.0	28	120	20	25	402
Brett Moffitt	106.1	5.7	5.3	14.7	7.7	25	104	33	33	362
Sheldon Creed	106.1	7.3	7.0	12.0	7.3	47	119	66	107	386
Christian Eckes	103.8	4.3	3.7	7.7	6.7	-24	87	13	21	402
Derek Kraus	100.2	13.3	9.3	14.0	9.7	44	144	11	0	393
Grant Enfinger	96.5	8.0	9.7	4.0	9.3	-7	115	8	0	402
Chandler Smith	95.3	5.0	12.0	5.0	9.0	-1	40	2	0	134
Ben Rhodes	89.8	7.3	11.7	11.7	11.0	19	108	23	4	400
Tanner Gray	86.2	14.3	16.0	8.3	12.3	14	100	15	3	402
Todd Gilliland	81.9	6.3	11.0	14.3	11.0	-9	107	5	15	401
Johnny Sauter	81.3	12.7	6.7	17.7	14.0	17	90	3	0	351
Stewart Friesen	78.1	19.3	14.7	21.7	18.3	5	71	2	3	348
Chase Purdy	74.4	11.0	16.0	17.3	16.0	-9	107	3	0	399
Raphael Lessard	67.9	14.3	15.7	15.7	17.3	-23	97	8	0	401
Tyler Ankrum	67.4	14.7	21.7	23.7	20.7	4	68	13	0	338
Austin Wayne Self	65.2	21.7	18.3	18.0	17.7	8	39	0	0	400
Tate Fogleman	60.8	22.7	20.7	18.3	20.7	2	2	0	0	401
Cory Roper	59.8	23.5	20.0	28.0	25.0	-16	0	0	0	210
Spencer Davis	58.9	27.0	24.3	20.7	21.7	3	14	0	0	398
Jordan Anderson	50.9	27.3	27.0	25.7	25.7	8	4	1	0	348
Natalie Decker	49.0	21.3	24.7	30.7	27.7	-35	0	0	0	215
Spencer Boyd	47.9	25.7	28.0	23.0	26.0	-72	1	2	0	396
Cody Rohrbaugh	43.9	26.5	29.5	26.5	27.5	14	0	1	0	224
Clay Greenfield	42.9	27.3	24.7	27.0	26.3	-36	0	0	0	355
Robby Lyons	42.9	30.0	29.5	23.5	27.0	6	0	1	0	265
Dawson Cram	37.3	29.5	30.5	30.0	30.0	-19	1	0	0	149
Ray Ciccarelli	36.2	34.0	32.0	27.3	30.7	-3	0	1	0	382
Kevin Donahue	34.5	29.5	31.0	30.5	31.0	-46	0	2	0	147
Jennifer Jo Cobb	30.8	31.7	32.7	32.3	33.0	0	0	1	0	277
Bryan Dauzat	24.7	36.5	37.0	37.0	36.5	1	0	2	0	87

Betting Targets

Speaking of H2H targets, betting match-ups may be our best friend this week if we do not see improvement in betting odds. Odds for all NASCAR’s series have been very conservative this week in terms of win (futures) bets. With saturated value involving odds to win the Clean Harbors 200, we may have to rely more on match-ups unless we get positive line movement closer to race time. Obviously, Austin Hill deserves the favorite status due to his performance described above but his 3 to 1 odds are not exactly appetizing. I would like to be a bigger fan of Sheldon Creed this week but I think there is far too much risk than reward in his current betting odds. Creed finished 2nd at Las Vegas but was not necessarily that great through either Kansas race back in July.

I’m not sure if you call these next two drivers “dark horses” but I remain high on the likes of Christian Eckes and Matt Crafton mainly because they have the most value in current odds. I mentioned above that both Eckes and Crafton were strong in the categories of average running position and overall driver ratings. I know Eckes is still searching for that first victory and while I think his best chance will be on a 1.5 mile surface; I still don’t like his current betting odds. I find more of Eckes’ value in the realm of H2H match-ups against a few drivers with similar odds around him. Meanwhile, I am confused why Crafton is listed as the 7th-8th betting favorite for most sportsbooks when his performance indicates that he is in the top 3 in nearly every performance category. Crafton’s strength throughout the latter part of his career has been compiled on the 1.5 mile surfaces and I will take the value being given on the #88 machine again this week.

For additional betting targets in the realm of H2H match-ups, don’t overlook the talents of Derek Kraus and Tanner Gray. Despite not getting the best finishes in recent weeks, Kraus has shown plenty of speed in the #19 truck and had two of his most solid performances back at Kansas in July which produced finishes of 5th and 7th. From the start of the year, I believe the rookie is probably the most improved driver in the series and I will continue to support his H2H value until odds catch up to his talent. Meanwhile, Tanner Gray is my long shot driver of the week and sharp H2H target. Gray has produced two 3rd place finishes over the last 3 races which includes the similar layout of Las Vegas. Additionally, Gray posted a solid 4th place finish in the 2nd race at Kansas back in July. At 40 to 1 odds, Gray has far more upside than any of the drivers in the vicinity of those odds and provides really sharp H2H value going into Saturday’s race.

Drivers to Fade

For potential fade targets this week, I am fading the likes of Zane Smith, Ben Rhodes, and Timothy Peters across 3 different levels of favorites, intermediates, and long shot categories. I mentioned earlier that I was surprised to see Smith ranked so high on our loop data stats. However, I am not going to be persuaded by solid finishes when Smith has not been as fast as the likes of Hill, Creed, or Moffitt this season on the 1.5 mile surfaces. Obviously any time you fade a driver that tends to produce good finishes it is a risky fade option. However, I just don’t believe Smith should be in the same odds category as the overall favorites. Meanwhile, Stewart Friesen has completely under-performed for the majority of the 2020 season in the #52 trucks especially on similar layouts. Friesen has the worst average running position (18.3) out of the top half of the field and while I have expected a trend reversal oftentimes this season; it is fairly obvious that the time has run out on that possibility.

This week, Friesen will be out of action due to scheduling conflicts and Timothy Peters will get the opportunity to pilot the #52 truck. While I respect Peters’ talent, the time outside of the driving seat combined with the #52 team’s performance this year provides a clear fade opportunity. Lastly, Todd Gilliland and the #38 team are on my radar this week due to the decline in performance during the 2nd half of the season. Gilliland was one of the biggest surprises at the beginning of the season but since the strong run at Gateway; the #38 truck has produced just one top 10 finish in the last 5 races. At the most recent 1.5 mile event at Las Vegas, the #38 truck was outside of the top 10 nearly the entire event and it is apparent that they have lost some momentum which deserves our betting attention.

Fantasy Targets

For fantasy racing options, there are numerous angles this week to consider. Parker Kligerman ($11,100) is the most expensive option on the board from the 35th starting position. Kligerman has often produced strong fantasy results yielding at least 45 points in 5 of 6 races this year. With that said, I’m not sure if Kligerman provides the most outlandish ceiling based on the price tag but has shown consistency. Austin Hill ($10,700) and Christian Eckes ($10,400) are two favorites that could easily hit value based on starting positions and potential upside. Hill obviously has the most legitimate ceiling due to his 2 wins at Kansas and Las Vegas.

Outside of the favorites, Tanner Gray ($8,000), Hailie Deegan ($7,100), and Raphael Lessard ($7,400) provide affordable value options. Deegan will be making her first start this weekend for DGM-Crosley and her 34th starting position boosts her fantasy appeal. I am fearful that Deegan’s popularity will likely vault her usage but she has legitimate fantasy upside where a top 15 finish is not completely out of the question. I mentioned Tanner Gray’s potential above which provides a complete steal at just $8,000 from the 19th place position. Meanwhile, Raphael Lessard is another affordable option fresh on the heels of his win at Talladega. Lessard has been running well at the 1.5 mile tracks and if Lessard just mirrors his starting position (10th) with his finishing position, it would be a solid 34 points minimum.

2020 Clean Harbors 200 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Clean Harbors 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Hill +350 (1.5 units)
Zane Smith +700 (1 unit)
Matt Crafton +1200 (.75 unit)
Derek Kraus +4000 (.5 unit)
Tanner Gray +4000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Derek Kraus -110 over Tyler Ankrum (3 units)
Matt Crafton -130 over Grant Enfinger (2 units)
Tanner Gray -130 over Timothy Peters (2 units)