2020 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 12th, 2:30PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The Cup Series will return home to Charlotte on Sunday with the running of the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at the infamous ROVAL course at Charlotte Motor Speedway. On the heels of a chaotic race at Talladega last Sunday, tomorrow’s return to the ROVAL will bring a solemn conclusion to the Round of 12 with championship hopes hanging in the balance. Currently some of the sport’s biggest names like Joey Logano, Clint Bowyer, and Kyle Busch are flirting with the possibility of elimination. To complicate matters, Mother Nature will surely put a wrench in this weekend’s plans and could alter the racing conditions once the green flag waves.

As of the time of this writing, Hurricane Delta is preparing to make landfall on the coast of Louisiana which will ultimately disperse throughout the southeast over the weekend. As a result, rain is expected in the Charlotte region throughout the weekend which could muddy expectations for both Xfinity and Cup Series. On one hand, the ROVAL provides the opportunity to use rain tires which we have seen previously in NASCAR’s top divisions at the road courses. However, NASCAR will not proceed with either event if the weather is accompanied by thunderstorms or substantial rain is prevalent. Therefore, there is a chance that we could see rain tires unveiled this weekend but there is also a good chance that Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 could be pushed into Monday when the forecast is expected to be more optimistic.

When the racing does begin, I feel confident that we will have the opportunity to find strong betting opportunities. The ROVAL layout is still relatively new and this weekend’s event will mark just the 3rd race at Charlotte’s ROVAL. Ryan Blaney won the inaugural race in 2018 thanks to Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex tangling in the final chicane as both drivers came to the checkered flag. Last year, Chase Elliott wrecked while leading and was able to drive back through the field to capture the win in the 2019 Bank of America ROVAL 400. We will take a look at some of the results from those two races and compare it with recent activity to formulate a solid handicapping baseline for this Sunday’s event!

ROVAL Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	2018 ROVAL	2019 ROVAL	2020 Daytona RC
Chase Elliott	126.4	104.7	139.2	135.3
Martin Truex, Jr.	109.7	102.3	100.4	126.5
Jimmie Johnson	104.1	107	103	102.2
Clint Bowyer	102.1	95.7	111.3	99.3
William Byron	99.8	74.3	122.8	102.3
Kevin Harvick	99.3	93.7	129.6	74.7
Brad Keselowski	89.7	90.1	105.2	73.8
Ryan Blaney	86.5	104.2	88.1	67.2
Joey Logano	86.0	82.8	88.9	86.3
Kurt Busch	85.5	105.2	66.7	84.7
Alex Bowman	84.8	88.9	80.8	84.8
Denny Hamlin	83.2	71.4	62.3	116
Aric Almirola	77.5	65.7	88.3	78.5
Michael McDowell	77.4	67.4	79.2	85.7
Matt DiBenedetto	73.0	59.8	84.1	75
Kyle Busch	72.6	92.9	65.2	59.8
Christopher Bell	71.5			71.5
Cole Custer	70.5			70.5
Chris Buescher	69.5	60.6	72.2	75.7
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	69.4	62.8	70	75.5
Ryan Preece	65.5		63.2	67.7
Daniel Suarez	65.0	62.4	78	54.7
Tyler Reddick	64.8			64.8
Ty Dillon	64.1	56.2	67.8	68.2
Austin Dillon	58.7	57.2	60.2
Ryan Newman	58.6	58	55.8	62
Erik Jones	58.6	51.3	38.7	85.7
Bubba Wallace	51.4	49.3	52.5	52.5
Corey LaJoie	50.4		49.2	51.5
Matt Kenseth	47.2			47.2
James Davison	42.5			42.5
Ross Chastain	40.9	41.7	40.1
J.J. Yeley	36.2	35.2	37.7	35.7
John Hunter Nemechek	35.7			35.7
Timmy Hill	35.5	25.7	34.1	46.8
Garrett Smithley	34.4		36	32.7
Quin Houff	28.0			28
Stanton Barrett	24.3			24.3

For this week’s loop data statistics, I have compiled the averages for the last two ROVAL races and the results from the Go Bowling 235 on the Daytona International Speedway Road Course back in August. Back in August, I described the new Daytona road course as another version of Charlotte’s ROVAL because the similarities are undeniable. As a result, I decided to include the results from Daytona since we only have two prior ROVAL events in effort to provide a better analytical narrative.

Without much surprise, Chase Elliott top’s the loop data ratings with wins in the last two road course races. I have considered Elliott and Martin Truex Jr the best road course talents in the Cup Series over the last several years and the metrics validate that sentiment. Elliott (4) and Truex (3) have combined for 7 of the 9 victories on road course layouts since the start of 2017 which is a really impressive stat. Behind Elliott and Truex, veterans Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer continue to showcase their skills at these types of layouts. Despite Johnson’s decline in the latter stage of his career, he has actually been really strong on the road courses and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday.

On the other side of the performance spectrum, guys like Austin Dillon and Erik Jones have produced notable poor trends. For Dillon, this may create a potential fade opportunity due to his strong runs in recent races in the playoffs. Erik Jones did have a quality run at Daytona among a few others in recent years on road courses. However, Jones’ best finish in two starts at the ROVAL is a disappointing 30th which keeps him in the underperforming discussion. Another driver that has continuously underperformed is Ryan Newman who has averaged a 19.5 finishing position since 2017 on road course layouts. For clarity, the drivers that I am mentioning that have shown poor performance trends do not automatically equate to fade candidates. We have to leverage odds evaluations before putting trends into actual betting wagers.

Betting Targets

For betting targets, I don’t think anyone can deny Chase Elliott’s status as the favorite going into Sunday and while I don’t always back heavy favorites; I will have Elliott on my betting card in some form or fashion this weekend which will likely be in the form of a parlay courtesy of BetAnySport. Martin Truex makes sense as a reasonable favorite with a decent price tag however his prior performances at the ROVAL are not overly impressive. Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin are both legitimate options based on their 2020 campaigns with Harvick being the far betting road course driver historically.

With those things in mind, I really like some of the bigger underdogs this week. Jimmie Johnson ranks 3rd on our loop data driver ratings (shown above) and is listed at plus 20 to 1 odds. Hendrick’s improvement this season vaults Johnson’s underdog status following a 4th place result at the Daytona road course in August. Meanwhile, I believe drivers like William Byron and Alex Bowman provide sharp betting value in both win (futures) and H2H formats.

I watched the ROVAL race in-person last year and made a mental note of how impressive Byron looked despite limited road course experience. Following another solid showing in August at Daytona, Byron is vaulted to one of my favorite H2H targets this week. Likewise, Alex Bowman is a sneaky sharp betting target as well. Despite showing up on some of our loop data and prior stats, Bowman’s best road course results have come at the ROVAL with finishes of 4th and 2nd. In fact, Bowman and Clint Bowyer are the only two drivers that have recorded top 5 finishes in both starts at the ROVAL. As a result, both drivers deserve some respect as Sunday’s race approaches!

Drivers to Fade

Until this point, most sportsbooks only have a limited number of H2H match-ups offered so I don’t have many drivers jumping out in terms of fade candidates because the amount of drivers being included in match-ups is limited. However, I can tell you from current odds that guys like Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Erik Jones are likely overvalued based on current win odds. I also believe you can fade the likes of Austin Dillon with complete confidence due to his recent strong runs in the playoffs combined with his disastrous performance trends on road courses. Normally, I would have more drivers included in the “fade” category but I am waiting for further line movement and extended match-ups to be offered.

Fantasy Targets

In the essence of time, I am not going to discuss the favorites which were described mostly above in the realm of fantasy. I have outlined the guys I expect to be towards the front of the field. For fantasy value based on potential, starting position, and salary price, Jimmie Johnson ($9,100), Michael McDowell ($8,100), and Christopher Bell ($7,700) are my favorite fantasy plays this week based on value. I mentioned Johnson’s impressive road course trends above and his 30th starting position will elevate his ceiling. Meanwhile both McDowell and Bell are underrated road course talents. McDowell has posted top 20 finishing positions in both ROVAL starts and Bell was running pretty well at Daytona before late race trouble. If you look at Bell’s performance in the Xfinity Series on road courses, then you would know he has some serious talent for this type of driving. If you consider both drivers will be starting towards the rear and are reasonably priced, both drivers present a ton of value to build fantasy lineups around.

Draftkings 2020 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Optimal Lineup

2020 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Kevin Harvick +750 (1 unit)
Alex Bowman +2000 (.75 unit)
Jimmie Johnson +2200 (.75 unit)
William Byron +3000 (.5 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Christopher Bell -105 over Erik Jones (3 units)
Alex Bowman -115 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
Jimmie Johnson -110 over Kurt Busch (2 units)
Tyler Reddick +145 over Erik Jones (2 units)
Kevin Harvick +155 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Christopher Bell +280 wins Group D (Jones, Almirola, and McDowell)(1 unit)