2020 Chevy Silverado 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Betting Predictions
Saturday October 3rd, 1:00PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

For just the 2nd time this season, the Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series will get the opportunity to go superspeedway racing this Saturday in the running of the Chevy Silverado 250 at Talladega Superspeedway. Back in February, Grant Enfinger kicked off the 2020 season with a victory in the NextEra Energy Resources 250 at Daytona International Speedway. This Saturday, Truck Series teams and drivers will get the opportunity to tackle Talladega’s 2.66 mile layout that has produced surprise winners in each of the last 3 races in the series. Check out our thoughts as we prepare for a wild weekend at Talladega with our 2020 Chevy Silverado 250 race picks!

The Truck Series only visits Talladega Superspeedway once each year and usually it’s solely alongside the Cup Series at this time each year. Due to schedule adjustments this season, the Xfinity Series will also compete at Talladega for the 2nd time this season in a double header with the Truck Series on Saturday. It is the first time in NASCAR history that all 3 series will compete at the same weekend at Talladega. Like I mentioned earlier, this race has produced spectacular finishes and surprise winners in recent years. The last 3 winners have included Parker Kligerman, Timothy Peters from a part-time role, and most recently Spencer Boyd scored his first and only career win in this race one year ago.

Needless to say, this race can produce the most unlikely winners because the draft is the ultimate equalizer. From a betting standpoint, this can be both frustrating and rewarding. Often betting the superspeedway races leads to disappointment because we have a lower probability of hitting winners in these types of races. However if you maintain a solid low risk/high reward betting strategy that focuses on value in terms of ROI, then these races can be rewarding in both short term and long term formats. Therefore, we will take our best swings this week and focus our betting attention towards drivers that provide optimal value that have shown the ability to excel in this style of racing.

Betting Targets

We can use several observable angles to formulate predictions this week. The beauty of superspeedway racing is that there are not many bad “picks” but rather just few winners. If we look back at the Daytona race in February, Grant Enfinger not only captured the victory but he posted the highest driver rating (127.5) and led the most laps (41). Therefore, Enfinger’s victory was not the result of the right place right time scenario but rather a product of a strong performance. In that race in February, guys like Austin Hill, Ben Rhodes, and Sheldon Creed had notable strong runs.

Of course we cannot expect the exact same expectations on Saturday but it is worth noting how drivers/teams performed in the only other superspeedway race of the season. If we focus our energy solely on recent Talladega races among the veteran drivers, Enfinger, Stewart Friesen, Austin Hill, and Todd Gilliland are a few names that stick out with quality performances. Enfinger is probably one of the best veterans in the field at superspeedway racing. However, Friesen and Austin Hill have posted top 10 finishes in their last two starts at Talladega. Additionally, I would mention Todd Gilliland for the really strong run he had in this race one year ago. While I know he was with a different team at the time, Gilliland ran inside the top 5 for most of the race, led several laps, and earned the most stage points. As a result, Gilliland is a sneaky dark horse consideration going into Saturday.

Speaking of dark horses, do not overlook drivers like Derek Kraus and Trevor Bayne this week. Bayne is a former Daytona 500 winner and respectable superspeedway talent. So far this season, Bayne’s performance in the Truck Series has been forgettable but Talladega is the type of place where the former Cup Series driver could find gold. Likewise, rookie Derek Kraus has been on my radar for weeks now. I have been extremely impressed by Kraus’s growth this season and he is getting close to scoring a win. Following a 4th place finish at Daytona, Kraus will have another opportunity this Saturday to get that first victory!

Betting Strategy

I mentioned above that superspeedway racing requires a low risk/high reward betting philosophy for long term success. However, I also want to be clear that H2H match-ups are extremely risky for superspeedway racing. There is not usually much value in betting match-ups because the odds of the chaotic circumstances that entail this style of racing. The only H2H bets that make sense this week are those that are offering significant underdog value or small risk options to set up parlay opportunities for other events. Throughout Saturday’s races in both Trucks and Xfinity, I will be making 1-2 plays to set up potential parlay opportunities to yield value in Sunday’s YellaWood 500. I sent out an email this week advising everyone that parlay options are available at BetAnySport which uses the same interface as 5Dimes. I encourage everyone to check it out!

Fantasy Targets

For fantasy racing options, it is similar to H2H bets where everything is extremely volatile due to the high frequency of huge multi-car accidents that can take out multiple innocent victims in the blink of an eye. If you are a serious fantasy player, the best option is constructing multiple line-ups with variance. If you are looking to submit one optimal or a lower quantity of line-ups, I would focus heavily on place-differential potential by targeting drivers with subpar starting positions. The reason for this is relatively simple. The ceilings for these drivers are higher and if we do have the big wrecks, it may not destroy your lineup if you have 1-2 drivers involved that are starting towards the rear.

As I mentioned earlier, Derek Kraus ($8,600) and Trevor Bayne ($8,200) are among my favorite value plays this week based on starting position and ceiling potential. Among the top 6-7 priced options that includes the favorites, it is mostly a guessing game towards predicting the driver that will produce the most points. The top 8-10 drivers are all feasible options. From the pole position, Sheldon Creed ($9,200) is a boom or bust play. Creed’s aggressive driving style could possibly keep the #2 truck out front and if that happens, Creed could rack up some valuable dominator points. I also like guys like Todd Gilliland and Grant Enfinger are solid pivot options among the top drivers. If you are looking for cheaper value options, consider drivers like last year’s winner Spencer Boyd ($5,600), Bayley Currey ($6,900), and Cody Rohrbaugh ($5,800) are all cheap options that could easily hit value.

2020 Chevy Silverado 250 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Chevy Silverado 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Sheldon Creed +850 (1 unit)
Todd Gilliland +1800 (.75 unit)
Christian Eckes +2200 (.5 unit)
Stewart Friesen +2500 (.5 unit)
Derek Kraus +3300 (.5 unit)
Chandler Smith +3300 (.5 unit)
Spencer Boyd +8800 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Derek Kraus -115 over Tanner Gray
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD