2020 South Point 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday September 27th, 7:45PM (EST) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The next stage in the Cup Series playoffs will take place Sunday night with the start of the Round of 12 when the green flag waves for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Back in February, Joey Logano took home the checkered flag in the Pennzoil 400 in Sin City which marked Logano’s 2nd victory in the last 3 starts at Vegas. With the heat of the playoffs picking up, Logano and teammate Brad Keselowski will look to keep the Team Penske momentum alive having combined for 5 of the past 9 victories at Las Vegas. However, things are certainly going to be different from the racing we witnessed in February. Take a look as we discuss our expectations and provide our 2020 South Point 400 race picks!

Throughout this weekend’s races I have mentioned that while we definitely want to look back at the results from February, we should not expect the results to be the same. The Pennzoil 400 occurred in the 2nd race of the season meaning teams and drivers have made tremendous strides to change these racecars. Even in the February race, there were several surprises with the likes of Matt DiBenedetto, Ricky Stenhouse, and Austin who all finished in the top 5 positions. For this Sunday’s race, we should expect some surprises yet again. From a handicapping perspective, bettors should look at more recent performance trends on the 1.5 mile surfaces to formulate a baseline of expectations.

Surprisingly, it has been two months since the Cup Series last competed on a 1.5 mile layout. In the last event on a 1.5 mile surface, Denny Hamlin captured the checkered flag in the Super Start Batteries 400 at Kansas Speedway. More importantly, the Cup Series embarked on 3 straight races on 1.5 mile layouts back in July which produced a ton of shocking moments including wins by Cole Custer at Kentucky and Austin Dillon at Texas. While Las Vegas is more favorable to Kansas in track comparison, the wide open driving style and track position game will be extremely important this week. If a driver can take advantage of late race track position, another surprise winner is not out of the question.

Las Vegas Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	127.2	2.8	5.4	10.8	6.2	10	203	180	455	1215
Joey Logano	120.0	9.8	4.4	4.4	4.8	26	271	95	316	1340
Martin Truex Jr	112.9	12.6	4.4	7.2	6.8	84	297	172	135	1340
Brad Keselowski	103.0	13.2	9.8	3.8	8.8	39	250	86	92	1340
Ryan Blaney	98.2	10.0	11.4	9.6	9.8	-10	232	60	21	1339
Chase Elliott	96.3	8.6	8.0	21.8	10.6	36	309	103	82	1194
Kyle Busch	94.6	8.2	18.2	9.2	13.0	23	231	65	24	1339
Aric Almirola	86.5	17.6	14.2	11.4	12.8	19	240	22	3	1339
Kurt Busch	85.8	11.4	7.6	25.0	13.4	5	221	22	23	1174
Alex Bowman	84.1	14.2	11.6	13.0	12.4	19	312	41	0	1337
Denny Hamlin	81.1	8.2	15.2	18.2	14.0	-38	255	20	4	1311
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	80.0	13.4	17.4	15.8	16.6	6	157	19	35	1315
Austin Dillon	79.8	13.2	16.0	12.0	14.8	-13	193	13	3	1338
Jimmie Johnson	78.9	13.4	15.6	13.8	14.0	15	264	29	0	1336
William Byron	77.9	16.6	14.0	21.8	16.4	-5	253	51	27	1274
Erik Jones	74.7	14.0	20.2	24.0	19.8	-8	151	33	0	1202
Clint Bowyer	74.4	10.6	15.6	18.4	15.2	-56	202	6	1	1335
Ryan Newman	72.2	23.3	16.8	13.5	16.5	23	147	6	0	1070
Daniel Suarez	63.6	19.2	22.0	20.2	19.2	-10	129	11	41	1331
Matt DiBenedetto	63.0	25.6	23.4	18.0	21.0	7	86	6	9	1332
Chris Buescher	62.8	26.8	20.8	16.0	19.6	21	119	8	1	1337
Bubba Wallace	53.3	27.2	24.6	22.8	25.0	13	16	2	0	1226
Ty Dillon	51.1	25.2	24.4	22.6	25.4	13	58	10	0	1280
Michael McDowell	49.4	18.6	32.6	31.2	27.2	-85	48	9	27	1139
Corey LaJoie	48.4	31.3	23.3	21.8	27.3	10	26	2	0	1068
Ryan Preece	47.4	20.0	26.0	29.7	25.3	-6	15	0	0	752
Cole Custer	45.5	23.5	29.0	22.0	27.5	-10	2	1	0	531
J.J. Yeley	40.5	36.3	31.0	25.7	31.0	-7	4	1	0	796
B.J. McLeod	30.6	35.7	36.0	32.7	35.0	3	0	0	0	747
Garrett Smithley	28.7	34.0	36.5	35.0	36.0	-4	0	0	0	507
Reed Sorenson	28.7	37.5	37.0	34.5	36.0	16	0	0	0	1001
Joey Gase	26.6	35.8	36.0	34.8	36.3	-9	0	0	0	770
Timmy Hill	26.2	38.5	37.5	35.5	37.0	3	0	2	0	406

If we turn our focus strictly to past performance data at Las Vegas, Kevin Harvick tops this week’s loop data ratings with a 127.2 average over the past 5 races. Harvick has secured two career wins at Las Vegas which have come in the last 8 starts but should likely have scored 1-2 more victories based on pure speed. Harvick leads all drivers with 455 laps led over the past 5 races and will be heavily favored again this week due to his 9 victories on the season. Behind Harvick, Joey Logano, Martin Truex, and Brad Keselowski all have secured triple digit average ratings over the last 5 races. I mentioned both Keselowski and Logano’s success earlier. However, Truex has also been really strong with 2 wins in the last 6 starts and finishes of 4th or better in 4 of the last 6 starts.

Again, I would not pay too much close attention to loop data ratings this week. This type of track favors pure aerodynamic speed which is more relative towards recent performance trends on similar surfaces. If you notice, Denny Hamlin is listed with a measly 81.1 rating over the last 5 races at Vegas. However, Hamlin is a strong betting option because he has actually been better than Harvick on the 1.5 mile layouts this season. Therefore, the loop data ratings hold minimal weight this week towards producing actual betting predictions.

Betting Targets

I know you are not going to convince odds makers to yield better odds for Denny Hamlin or Kevin Harvick due to their success this season but I honestly don’t believe anyone should be listed at 5 to 1 or less odds at Vegas. There are simply too many variables towards deciding this race that saturate value from those types of betting odds. As a result, I remain committed to Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano this week that are listed slightly more favorably from an odds perspective. For the record, I am not backing Logano due to his victory in February but rather for Team Penske’s performance at 1.5 mile tracks in general. I believe the Ford teams have the best aero advantage and Team Penske has performed exceptionally well on similar layouts this season. I slightly favor Keselowski as the best out of the two options but both drivers are receiving similar odds.

Since we no longer have the parlay options, our win (futures) bets must remain somewhat conservative and yield sharp value. For that reason, I am conflicted around my thoughts for Martin Truex Jr. Truex has shown tremendous performance trends in recent races on 1.5 mile surfaces but I still believe he is overvalued at 5.5 to 1 odds. Perhaps, Truex could become a better option with more favorable line movement closer to race time. Until then if we are going to take chances in the realm of win bets, Aric Almirola, Austin Dillon, and Ryan Blaney are all live dogs. Blaney is a part of the Team Penske brigade that has shown winning speed several times this year.

Meanwhile, Aric Almirola and Austin Dillon are both having the best years of their career. Dillon has been the biggest surprise story of the playoffs with finishes of 2nd, 4th, and 12th in the opening 3 races. Dillon has shown great speed and should be given legitimate betting consideration in all formats on the heels of a 4th place finish at Vegas back in February. Meanwhile, Aric Almirola may hold more value in the realm of H2H match-ups. Almirola had the best performance stretch of his career over the summer which included 5 straight top 5 finishes followed by 3 top 10 finishes in a row at Kentucky, Texas, and Kansas. Recently, Almirola has put together another solid streak of 3 straight top 10 finishes in the playoffs. If the Fords perform like I expect, Almirola should be poised for another quality afternoon.

Drivers to Fade

I have seen a lot of experts and respected media elevate Kyle Busch’s chances at a victory this week. While I believe Busch is the most talented driver in the Cup Series and perhaps the most talented in recent memory, the #18 should not be among the favorites for Sunday’s South Point 400. Despite all the bad luck this season, Busch has not experienced any DNF’s or mechanical failure at 1.5 mile layouts this season. Still, Busch has averaged just a 12th place finishing position in 11 starts on 1.5 mile surfaces. What does this mean? It means the #18 team has struggled with their package on these surfaces. Busch has made a few solid runs in recent weeks on smaller surfaces where aerodynamics yield minimal impact. That will not be the case this weekend when the #18 returns to Las Vegas and I suspect this team will struggle especially against the favorites who Busch is paired against in the form of match-ups.

I would also throw Chase Elliott and most of the Hendrick Motorsports cars into that same group. Elliott’s last 3 performances on 1.5 mile layouts have produced driver ratings of 91.0, 83.2, and 85.2. While those performance trends are not terrible, it is also not strong enough to be paired against the likes of Logano, Keselowski, and others in the same odds range. For whatever reason, Hendrick Motorsports has not improved throughout the year on 1.5 mile surfaces. However, the biggest fade value lies with Elliott because he is considered one of the overall favorites for the outright victory.

Fantasy Targets

In fantasy racing, we have numerous options to consider for constructing an optimal lineup. Obviously, multiple variances of line-ups are the prime strategy but that is not always the most feasible financial option. From the pole position, Kevin Harvick is the most expensive priced ($11,700) option this week which is justified due to Harvick’s potential to rack up dominator points during the first stage. Personally, I like Brad Keselowski ($11,400) as my top option who will be starting from the 12th position. I really believe Keselowski has a great opportunity to score another playoff victory and he should be given legitimate consideration for line-ups.

I believe the difficult decisions come behind Harvick and Keselowski, we have a group of 7 drivers from Denny Hamlin through Ryan Blaney that yield 2nd level favorite status. Picking the correct driver from this group will be critical towards cashing a winning ticket because the risk of a poor performance could really hurt the overall lineup. Personally, I side with the cheapest option of Ryan Blaney and even Erik Jones ($8,500) as more reasonable options based on price and value. By selecting those cheaper drivers with similar upside, we can salvage some quality in the bottom half of our lineup.

For lower-tier options, I really like Ricky Stenhouse’s upside from the 33rd starting position at the $7,800 price tag. Both Aric Almirola and Austin Dillon are within that same price range but have a limited ceiling due to their starting position. However, Stenhouse and Cole Custer ($6,660) are vastly underpriced for their potential. Custer falls into that category of Ford drivers that I expect to perform well. Custer finished 1st at Kentucky and 7th at Kansas which are the most comparable tracks to Vegas over the summer. If you want a more risky flier option, the only driver I would mention that has cheaper value is Corey LaJoie ($5,500). LaJoie has been a bang or bust fantasy option in recent weeks which is the same scenario again for Vegas. However, LaJoie provides salary relief for fantasy owners looking for more top heavy lineups.

Draftkings 2020 South Point 400 Optimal Lineup

2020 South Point 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Joey Logano +750 (1 unit)
Brad Keselowski +800 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1000 (.75 unit)
Aric Almirola +2500 (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +5000 (.5 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Cole Custer +100 over Matt Kenseth (3 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr -110 over Ryan Newman (3 units)
Joey Logano -110 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Aric Almirola -115 over Alex Bowman (2 units)
Austin Dillon +250 wins Group 4 (Byron, Bowyer, and Reddick) (1 unit)
Erik Jones +900 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Cole Custer +2500 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)