2020 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday September 19th, 7:45PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

One of the most exciting races of the year will take place tomorrow night when the green flag waves for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Not only is the Bristol night race one of the most exciting races of the season but tomorrow night’s event will be intensified because it will be the final race in the Round of 16. After the checkered flag waves, 4 drivers will be eliminated from the championship race. Currently, popular names like Ryan Blaney, Clint Bowyer, and Kurt Busch are among the drivers hovering around the cut-line. Needless to say the gloves will be pulled up at The World’s Fastest Half-Mile and we are ready to dive into our 2020 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race picks!

If you look at the history of Bristol Motor Speedway, Kyle Busch has easily been the best driver among active Cup Series drivers with 8 victories in the Cup Series. Rowdy’s 8 victories at Bristol currently ranks 5th all-time behind Darrell Waltrip (12), Dale Earnhardt (9), Rusty Wallace (9), and Cale Yarborough (9). With another win, Rowdy would join an elite group of drivers that have scored 9 career victories at Bristol and you have to think this Saturday will be one of Busch’s best chances to end his 28 race winless streak which is nearing the longest mark of his career. Behind Rowdy, older brother Kurt Busch owns the 2nd most wins (6) among active drivers with the most recent victory coming in the 2018 Bristol night race. As this Saturday’s race approaches, the elder Busch is among those that really need a quality performance to keep his championship hopes alive!

Bristol Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Busch	109.8	11.8	7.2	6.0	10.2	71	212	232	318	2497
Ryan Blaney	102.4	6.8	19.2	19.2	8.8	21	178	127	439	1815
Joey Logano	101.5	10.0	8.4	10.6	8.8	18	271	126	244	2497
Clint Bowyer	100.2	16.2	9.6	6.0	9.4	55	315	104	144	2500
Brad Keselowski	100.1	8.0	8.2	12.2	8.2	2	266	138	313	2493
Denny Hamlin	97.2	9.6	10.4	10.2	10.6	20	307	84	221	2499
Chase Elliott	97.0	6.2	10.6	14.0	10.6	11	217	131	271	2473
Jimmie Johnson	93.7	18.8	11.8	8.8	11.6	61	293	59	0	2496
Kurt Busch	90.6	10.8	13.4	8.2	12.8	26	207	64	33	2495
Kevin Harvick	89.6	14.8	17.0	16.0	15.6	48	199	205	36	2244
Erik Jones	85.8	11.0	12.8	16.4	13.2	-15	247	96	33	2486
Martin Truex Jr	78.8	14.8	17.4	22.0	15.8	0	171	123	52	2386
Ryan Newman	78.7	19.2	11.0	11.4	14.4	-23	238	11	1	2499
Daniel Suarez	77.1	21.6	12.6	12.6	16.0	13	225	31	5	2498
Alex Bowman	75.7	13.0	19.4	17.6	17.8	0	207	37	0	2222
Matt DiBenedetto	74.0	18.0	19.0	17.6	17.6	3	131	38	97	2449
Austin Dillon	73.7	18.6	18.0	16.4	17.4	-15	212	10	0	2386
Aric Almirola	70.3	8.0	22.4	26.4	19.6	-56	204	53	2	1883
William Byron	69.3	10.4	13.0	17.2	17.0	12	160	28	0	2490
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	68.6	13.2	22.6	25.6	21.4	40	163	75	0	2009
Chris Buescher	60.6	24.6	17.8	23.4	19.4	17	109	8	0	2106
Bubba Wallace	59.7	26.6	20.6	19.6	21.0	2	60	2	6	1999
Ryan Preece	56.6	28.7	25.7	18.3	24.0	32	5	2	0	1493
Ty Dillon	53.9	28.2	26.2	24.6	24.4	-12	77	2	6	2168
Corey LaJoie	43.8	30.8	24.0	29.8	28.0	-50	12	1	0	1905
Michael McDowell	42.1	22.2	29.6	30.8	28.2	-48	16	1	0	1380
Timmy Hill	39.6	36.7	30.0	27.3	30.7	-30	0	0	0	1220
J.J. Yeley	39.3	36.7	28.7	28.3	30.3	0	0	2	0	1400
B.J. McLeod	36.9	36.0	33.5	30.0	33.0	6	0	3	0	887
Reed Sorenson	36.5	36.3	31.3	34.3	32.0	-17	0	0	0	949
Quin Houff	32.4	32.7	33.7	29.7	34.0	-3	0	3	0	1437

Without much surprise, Kyle Busch leads our loop data rankings this week with a 109.8 average rating over the last 5 races. Rowdy’s top market should not be surprising when you consider Busch has won 3 of the last 6 races at Bristol. Personally, I’m slightly surprised Rowdy’s average rating is not much higher because the likes of Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Clint Bowyer, and Brad Keselowski are all closely behind with triple digit average ratings. Neither Bowyer nor Blaney have ever visited victory lane at Bristol. However, Bowyer owns the 4th best career average finishing position (13.66) among active drivers and Blaney owns the most laps led (439) over the past 5 races. As a result, both Blaney and Bowyer deserve elevated consideration this week.

If you observe the rest of the loop data ratings, there are not too many surprises among the top of the list. With that being said, Martin Truex (78.8), William Byron (69.3), and Ricky Stenhouse Jr (68.6) are among the drivers with noteworthy disappointing marks. Historically, Bristol has been one of Truex’s worst tracks with just 3 top 10 finishes in 29 career starts resulting in a measly 20.62 average finishing position. William Byron scored his best Bristol finish in May with an 8th place finish which may indicate a trend reversal. However, Byron had never cracked the top 15 in 4 previous Bristol starts before this year’s 8th place result. Lastly, Ricky Stenhouse Jr is a driver that has always perceptually been strong at Bristol. In 2016, I still remember hitting one of my most profitable prop bets with Ricky Stenhouse at nearly 60 to 1 odds for a top 3 finish. I have always thought Bristol is one of Stenhouse’s best ovals but he had experienced a lot of trouble over the last 4 races which has weakened his averages. I still believe Stenhouse’s skill set is strongly suited for Bristol and perhaps there will be some value this week for the #47 car to turn things around.

The Favorites

One of the important factors that may hold more weight than prior track performance is the performance trends using the 2020 short-track package. As most are aware, all short tracks and road courses run a 750 horsepower package but specific changes to the 2020 package includes the reduction of downforce around the front splitter and rear spoiler. Under this package, Team Penske cars have excelled this season winning 4 of the 7 races utilizing this package. Specifically, Brad Keselowski owns 3 of those victories including the Food City 500 at Bristol back in May. Teammate Ryan Blaney led 60 laps in that race and wrecked while leading. Additionally, Joey Logano was racing for the lead when he got door slammed by Chase Elliott in the closing laps which means all 3 Team Penske cars had a chance at winning at Bristol back in May. As a result, Team Penske cars are at the top of my betting radar Saturday’s spectacle.

If you consider Denny Hamlin’s season long performance, you would have to keep the #11 towards the top of the favorites list this week. Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson are tied for the best average finishing position (9.0) over the last 10 races. Therefore, Hamlin deserves legitimate favorite consideration as Saturday night’s race approaches and he is also the defending winner of the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. Additionally, I would list Chase Elliott towards the top of that list. I mentioned earlier that Elliott got into Logano while racing for the win in the closing laps back in May. If not for the blown finish, Elliott was closing in on his 3rd top 5 finish in the last 4 starts. The driver of the #9 has been really close to getting a win at Bristol despite sometimes not getting the finishes he deserves. Therefore, Elliott deserves legitimate favorite status.

Dark Horses and H2H Targets

The good thing about Bristol is that there are legitimate dark horses that could get a surprise victory Saturday night under the right circumstances. Passing can be extremely difficult at Bristol especially early in the green flag runs so don’t rule out a pit strategy call to gain track position in the closing laps which could shake up the running order. A few guys that immediately stick out as legitimate dark horses include the likes of Clint Bowyer, Erik Jones, and Matt DiBenedetto. Jones and DiBenedetto may be surprising names in the dark horse category. However, Jones has recorded 3 top 5 finishes in his last 6 starts which includes a runner-up finish. Meanwhile, two of DiBenedetto’s best career moments occurred at Bristol including last year’s emotional battle with Denny Hamlin that resulted in a runner-up finish. Both drivers are not exactly polarizing betting options this week but have the upside potential we look for a true dark horse.

For Clint Bowyer, he has proven to be really good at Bristol simply on performance with 5 straight finishes of 8th or better including a runner-up finish back in May. To be fair, Bowyer was probably more of a 4th-6th place car back in May but he continues to perform well at Bristol. Considering the recent performances from the #14 car, I really like Bowyer as a H2H target this week against other mediocre type talents. Aside from the #14, I am also cautiously optimistic for Christopher Bell and Ricky Stenhouse’s chances to cash H2H bets this week. Bell finished 9th in his 1st Bristol start in May and remains an exceptional short-track talent. Meanwhile, I spoke earlier to Stenhouse’s success at Bristol which has been overshadowed by a string of bad finishes in the last few years. I believe both have the upside in the H2H match-ups based on the competition they are paired against.

Drivers to Fade

Without much debate, Martin Truex is one of my favorite fade candidates this week. After a few strong performances at Darlington and Richmond, Saturday’s race at Bristol is the perfect fade opportunity to bet against the #19 at one of his worst tracks. Other drivers that are definitely in contention for fade consideration are the likes of Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman. I point out Harvick because he is paired against the top favorites this week and I am just not convinced he deserves that much respect based on his performance history at Bristol. Meanwhile, Ryan Newman is a driver that has risen on my fade radar over the last several weeks. Newman is having an awful year and honestly looks like he is on his way to retirement. Newman’s stats at Bristol have been really solid but I just don’t think he deserves the respect he is getting based on current form.

Draftkings 2020 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Optimal Lineup

2020 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Picks

*Final*

Joey Logano +1200 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1400 (.75 unit) *early play
Kurt Busch +2700 (.5 unit) *early play
Erik Jones +3000 (.5 unit)
Clint Bowyer +4000 (.5 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlay

Anthony Alfredo +115 over Ryan Sieg (win)
Denny Hamlin/Chase Elliott +250 wins Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race
Risking 1 unit to win: +650

Kyle Busch +585 wins Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race
Matt Kenseth +155 over Ricky Stenhouse Jr
Risking .75 unit to win: +1235

Match-Ups and Props

Kevin Harvick -115 does not finish Top 5 (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Christopher Bell +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)