2020 Go Bowling 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Friday September 11th, 2020 7:00PM EST at Richmond Raceway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

The Xfinity Series will go under the bright lights of Richmond Raceway this Friday for the running of the Go Bowling 250. Last week, Ross Chastain and Denny Hamlin put on a show for spectators in one of the most exciting races of the season. Both cars got together in the closing laps which allowed Brandon Jones to score an improbable victory. This week we should expect the fender banging action to return at one of the best short-tracks in NASCAR. Take a look as we preview Friday night’s race and provide our 2020 Go Bowling 250 race picks for Richmond!

Though Denny Hamlin came up short at Darlington last week, Hamlin was the dominant car and driver in the #54 for Joe Gibbs Racing. On Friday, Kyle Busch climbs aboard the #54 as the overall betting favorite. Similar to Hamlin’s storyline success last week at Darlington, the same can be said for Busch this week at Richmond. The Xfinity Series’ all-time win leader has produced 6 victories at Richmond in Xfinity Series competition and owns another 6 victories in the Cup Series at Richmond which is the most among all active drivers. As a result, Busch is undeniably the heavy favorite this week especially in an Xfinity Series field that lacks a lot of overall experience.

Betting Targets

Busch’s win odds are approaching irrational territory this week at -150. Though I agree Busch should be a heavy favorite, anything more than even money seems a bit overvalued. The good news is that we can take some low risk/high reward gambles for some of the drivers behind him. Since Busch has absorbed all the betting attention this week, the rest of the field has favorable value. From collective research, I can’t deny the value for drivers like Austin Cindric +700 and Justin Allgaier +1100. Both Cindric and Allgaier finished in the top 3 positions in both Richmond races last year. Allgaier has performed exceptionally well at Phoenix which shares some resemblances to Richmond and it is extremely surprising that he has never won at Richmond despite several quality finishes. As a result, both drivers have really good ROI potential if the #54 runs into issues.

Since Busch remains a heavy favorite and we can salvage a few low risk win bets, the rest of our betting focus should shift towards H2H match-ups. One of the drivers very high on my radar this week in terms of H2H match-ups includes the #18 of Riley Herbst. Herbst won the pole and finished 9th in his 1st Richmond start last year (2nd Xfinity start overall). More importantly Herbst’ has momentum with two straight 4th place finishes and comes to a track that suits his skill set. I believe Herbst has a high ceiling this week and has really strong value in H2H match-ups judging by the drivers he is paired against. Another driver that I have high expectations for is the #20 of Harrison Burton. Like his teammate, Burton has been really strong on the shorter/flatter style layouts. Burton finished 6th in his 4th career Xfinity Series start at Richmond last fall and has legitimate top 5 upside again this week.

Drivers to Fade

Since Richmond remains a stylistic type of layout, I am looking to fade a few drivers that have shown struggles at similar venues. For example, Justin Haley has rarely shown upside at the small tracks despite a decent amount of experience. Outside of the win at Daytona, Haley has also finished outside the top 10 in 5 of the last 6 races. If you combine skill set with momentum, Haley is a driver to consider fading this Friday. Additionally, Brandon Jones is also high on my fade list this week. Admittedly, I was not high on Jones last week and he somehow scored a victory at Darlington. While the victory was a gift, Jones still performed above expectations. However in 8 prior starts at Richmond, Jones has an 19.5 average finishing position and has only finished inside the top 10 once which makes him a solid fade candidate this week.

Fantasy Targets

If you thought Denny Hamlin’s price tag of $16,000 was high at Darlington, Kyle Busch ($17,000) is even more expensive this week. I attempted to play around with drivers in an effort to fit Busch into my fantasy line-up but every time I sacrificed too much quality for my overall roster. Busch definitely has a high probability to yield the most fantasy points this Friday but if he does not get close to his ceiling; it may be more wise to fade Busch in fantasy to yield a better overall fantasy card. As a result, I am pivoting towards both Austin Cindric and Justin Allgaier as my two fantasy favorites this week. I mentioned earlier that both drivers have been strong at these types of layouts and believe both warrant fantasy consideration especially Allgaier who will be starting 16th.

If you are looking for dirt-cheap flier options, I would suggest the likes of Vinnie Miller ($6,700) and B.J. McLeod ($5,800) who will be starting towards the rear of the field. Both drivers ceilings are likely limited but their salary price offers more opportunity throughout the remainder of fantasy line-ups. Meanwhile, value options include Ryan Sieg ($7,500), Riley Herbst ($7,400), and Brett Moffitt ($8,600). Sieg and Herbst have limited ceilings due to their starting positions. However, both drivers could maintain their positions at the front of the field despite relatively cheap price tags. Meanwhile, Moffitt will likely be a low-owned option that has solid upside to hit value!

Draftkings Go Bowling 250 Optimal Lineup

2020 Go Bowling 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Cindric +700 (1 unit) *early play
Justin Allgaier +1100 (.75 unit) *early play
Harrison Burton +1600 (.75 unit)
Riley Herbst +8800 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch -152 wins Go Bowling 250
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.52 units to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Jeb Burton -130 over Michael Annett (2 units)
Harrison Burton +110 over Noah Gragson (2 units)
Riley Herbst -115 over Justin Haley (2 units)