2020 SportClips Help a Hero 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday September 5th, 2020 12:30PM EST at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

The Xfinity Series will kick off the racing weekend at Darlington Raceway on Saturday with the running of the SportClips Help a Hero 200. Back in May, Chase Briscoe and Kyle Busch put together one of the most exciting race finishes in the Xfinity Series this season by trading paint several times on the final few laps. Despite Busch’s status as the all-time winner in the Xfinity Series, Chase Briscoe scored the upset by holding off Busch in the final laps. Despite 6 wins on the season, Briscoe’s performance at Darlington earlier this year earned vaulted his perception value and elevated the discussion that he is ready for Cup Series competition. On Saturday, Briscoe will dance with the Lady in Black again as he goes for the repeat!

Even with Briscoe’s impressive performance back in May, he will only be the 2nd betting favorite this week because Denny Hamlin will step into the #54 car for Joe Gibbs Racing. Many could argue that Hamlin has been the best driver in the sport for the last two years with 12 combined Cup Series victories. While that argument is up for debate, I would confidently call Hamlin the best driver at Darlington Raceway in the sport today. Hamlin earned his 3rd career Cup Series victory in the 2nd Darlington race earlier this year following the COVID-19 hiatus and is also a 5-time Xfinity Series winner at Darlington. This week, Hamlin will have the opportunity to go after another Darlington victory and potentially set up a chance at the weekend sweep across both series.

As many can imagine, Hamlin has absorbed all of the betting value this week as the overwhelming favorite. Depending on the sportsbook, Hamlin has been listed anywhere from even money to a -130 chalked line. As much as I wanted to fade Hamlin and seek bigger ROI potential in the rest of the competition, I must admit Hamlin’s betting odds are deserving. Not only is Hamlin a 5-time Darlington winner in the Xfinity Series, but he also won this race a year ago. Only that victory does not show on the stats because the #18 (#54 this week) was disqualified after failing post-race inspection. If you throw away that disqualification, Hamlin has finished in the top 2 positions in 9 of his last 10 starts in the Xfinity Series at Darlington Raceway which is simply incredible!

Betting Value and Targets

Since we know that betting on Hamlin will produce minimal ROI, I find the most (win) odds are more hopeful than probable. As a result, I plan on minimizing my win bets this week to just 2-3 units. I already jumped on both Noah Gragson and Ross Chastain early in the week at 15 to 1 odds. I like both drivers ability at a place like Darlington and believe the odds warranted action. Both Gragson (5th) and Chastain (7th) ran better than they finished in the May race and I believe their aggressiveness could really pay off if somehow they can get track position in the closing laps.

Realistically, Chase Briscoe is the only driver that I feel has a legitimate shot to challenge Hamlin and not need the #54 to have misfortune. I know many would expect Austin Cindric to be in the picture this week based on his incredible run in recent weeks. However, Darlington’s abrasive surface will eliminate the raw speed advantage the #22 has shown in just a handful of laps. The guy behind the wheel has to be the main betting focus this week and that is why I believe Briscoe is the only driver with a reasonable shot to go after the win unless someone nails a magical setup this week. Since Briscoe is the 2nd betting favorite this week, our ROI ceiling is still pretty low. Therefore, I believe our best value this week relies in the H2H match-ups where I would encourage everyone to target the likes of Briscoe, Gragson, and Chastain in all match-ups as long as they are not against each other or Denny Hamlin!

Drivers to Fade

The one thing I like about Darlington is that we can usually trust the historical trends. Because this track is extremely driver dependent, you can count on the historical trends to hold weight towards future expectations. With the historical narrative in-play again this week, my favorite drivers to fade include the likes of Brandon Jones and Austin Cindric. I will admit that Cindric is a riskier fade but he will also be considered one of the overall favorites this week which will be advantageous in match-ups. We could get some decent underdog value or target match-ups favoring Briscoe over Cindric which I believe will win the majority of the time barring misfortune on the #98 team.

For Brandon Jones, he is more of a wide-open driver to fade in multiple match-ups if you choose. Jones has averaged a 14.2 average finishing position through 5 career Darlington starts and his best was just 7th in last year’s race. If you look at average driver rating and stage points, Jones has been one of the worst performing drivers among the top half of the Xfinity Series regulars and his performance weakness at Darlington should be exploited this week! Before I conclude my thoughts on fade targets, let me also mention Riley Herbst as a potential fade target. Herbst started 5th in his 1st start at Darlington in May and quickly fell like a rock once the green flag waived. The #18 did not receive a single stage point throughout the race and was largely a non-factor finishing 18th. I’m not sure what type of drivers Herbst will be paired against this week but he is worth keeping on your radar as a driver that could potentially struggle again!

Fantasy Targets

Denny Hamlin is steeply priced this week at $16,000 which obviously sacrifices value throughout the remainder of your fantasy line-up if you decide to select him. Personally, I don’t think you can leave Hamlin off your line-up due to the insane ceiling since he will be starting dead last in the 37th position. If you play multiple line-ups, I would definitely fade Hamlin in some form or fashion because his ownership will possibly be insane. Still if I had to bet, I would count on Hamlin to return value which means we have to be very sharp with the remainder of our selections. If you decide that you cannot afford Hamlin, Chase Briscoe is a must-have from the 2nd position simply based on the fact that he could lead the majority of the opening laps and still have a shot at the victory.

A few of my favorite fantasy targets this week include Noah Gragson ($8,800), Austin Hill ($6,900), and flier B.J. McLeod at just $5,100. For Gragson, he is one of the cheaper drivers of the top 10 fantasy options yet he has the better place-differential potential starting 14th. I think Gragson is a legitimate top 5 driver which he proved in May by leading the most laps. Therefore, he is a value play. Likewise are the likes of Austin Hill and B.J. McLeod due to starting spots towards the rear. Outside of getting caught up in a pair of wrecks, Austin Hill has looked really solid in his few Xfinity Series starts finishing as high as 9th. At a track like Darlington, Hill can also overcome some of the equipment disadvantage to salvage some needed fantasy points. Lastly, B.J. McLeod ran exceptionally well back in the May race if you compare it to his average running position on the season. As one of the cheapest options on the board, he has a chance to return value and provide that salary relief that you need!

Draftkings SportClips Help a Hero 200 Optimal Lineup

2020 SportClips Help a Hero 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Briscoe +550 (1 unit)
Noah Gragson +1500 (.75 unit) *early play
Ross Chastain +1500 (.75 unit) *early play
Daniel Hemric +4500 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Ross Chastain +140 over Justin Allgaier
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Chase Briscoe -135 over Austin Cindric (2 units)
Noah Gragson -130 over Harrison Burton (2 units)
Ryan Sieg -110 over Brett Moffitt (2 units)