2020 KDI Office Technology 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Betting Predictions
Friday August 21st, 5:00PM (EST) at Dover International Speedway Road Course
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Friday, the Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series will kick off an action packed weekend of racing at Dover International Speedway with the running of the KDI Office Technology 200. Friday’s Truck Series race at the Monster Mile will be the first of 5 races over the 3 day weekend yielding several critical betting opportunities before next week’s wildcard at Daytona. Surprisingly Friday’s KDI Office Technology 200 will be the first race in the Truck Series at a track under 1.5 miles this season. Due to scheduling adjustments as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, this will be the first short track race of the season in the Truck Series and we hope to take advantage with our 2020 KDI Office Technology 200 race picks!

From a spectator standpoint, I am excited to see the Truck Series in action this weekend at the Monster Mile. The change of pace from the traditional 1.5 mile speedways is refreshing from a viewer position. From a betting position, we have some uncertainty due to the fact we don’t have any comparable performance data on the shorter tracks this season. Therefore, we will do our best to dial-in our expectations for what has become a somewhat unpredictable series. Fortunately, betting odds have been relatively fair going into Friday’s 200 mile race and we will look to stay aggressive in an attempt to get the weekend started in the right direction.

The major handicapping focus this weekend should entail experience and short-track talent. I have always stated that Dover is like “Bristol on steroids.” Dover is an extremely fast one mile circuit that requires drivers to be on the edge to make speed. The track can obviously be difficult for inexperienced drivers and there are quite a few drivers in Friday’s field that have never run a lap at Dover International Speedway including two Kyle Busch Motorsports drivers in Christian Eckes and Chandler Smith. Therefore we should keep the experience factor in mind because drivers will have just 200 short miles to get accustomed to the Monster Mile and those 200 laps will go by in a hurry.

From an experience standpoint, Johnny Sauter stands alone as the most decorated driver in the field at the Monster Mile. Sauter has won the last 3 straight races at Dover and trails Kyle Busch by just one victory for the most all-time in Truck Series competition. Matt Crafton is the only other driver in the field with a victory at Dover on their resume. Crafton’s lone victory at the Monster Mile came back in 2016 before Sauter’s most recent streak. Crafton deserves some elevated respect this week for the way the #88 has been running which includes top 5 finishes in 5 of the last 6 races including the victory at Kansas. With so much inexperience in the field, we would have to elevate both Crafton and Sauter’s chances on Friday. I’m just not quite sure if Sauter has shown the speed to show up at Dover and get a 4th straight win. Though I will say, Sauter must get a victory to make the playoffs and perhaps that will create an urgency to take some chances this weekend.

Fading the Favorites

One of the reasons that I mentioned that betting odds were relatively “fair” this weekend is because the betting favorites are not the ideal targets this weekend. Austin Hill has failed to show any serious short-track skills throughout his Truck Series career. Christian Eckes has never raced at Dover and is routinely overvalued each week. Meanwhile, Chandler Smith’s skill set is best for the short tracks which he proved in limited action in 2019. However, Smith has been far less competitive without Rudy Fugle this season at both Kentucky and Michigan. Does the young kid really deserve to be among the top 3-4 favorites in Friday’s field? I have my doubts!

Brett Moffitt is the only driver among the top 4-5 favorites that deserves to be in that category and even Moffitt’s odds are overvalued at less than 5 to 1 odds. Not only are the favorites overvalued outright but I believe there is legitimate value in fading the likes of Hill and Eckes in H2H match-ups. I personally believe Hill is the sharpest fade among the favorites. Eckes’ expectations are somewhat unknown because we have not seen his skills on surfaces with similarities to Dover. On the other hand, Hill has several starts at Dover, Bristol, and other short tracks in the Truck Series with very moderate results. Therefore, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on a few H2H match-ups this week against the betting favorites.

Drivers to Target

The drivers to target include the obvious choices of Johnny Sauter and Matt Crafton based on experience. Crafton’s value comes more from recent performance than track history. While I don’t like Sauter’s current performance, it is hard to ignore 3 straight victories at a track where the driver makes such a big difference. Additional guys that could be worthy of legitimate action include both Sheldon Creed and Zane Smith. Smith looked really solid in Xfinity Series competition at Dover and the majority of his starts in his young career have come on the shorter tracks.

Meanwhile, Creed simply keeps getting better each week which was evident by the victory at the Daytona road course last week. Creed showed a lot of strength in this race one year ago leading 59 laps before late race trouble. I expect Creed will be even better this week and his betting odds are the best among the most likely favorites. Lastly, I cannot deny Brett Moffitt’s knack for getting around Dover. I mentioned earlier that I am not a fan of Moffitt’s current betting odds but he is still very capable of contending for the victory this week. Perhaps Moffitt yields more H2H value against some of the fade targets described above, but should be given respect in all formats.

Fantasy Targets

Despite my dislike of Chandler Smith’s betting odds, the driver of the #51 has undeniable fantasy appeal from the 23rd starting position. At just $9,300 on Draftkings, Smith is a bargain play with strong upside. Though he does not have a favorable fantasy starting position, I also believe Sheldon Creed falls into that solid value range at just $9,100. Creed is an excellent pivot against the favorites like Sauter, Moffitt, and Eckes who are all priced higher. If Moffitt does not have a good start, Creed could have some early dominator points value as well.

For intermediate fantasy targets, I am a big fan of Derek Krauss at $8,000. Krauss finished 8th in his 1st start at the Monster Mile in 2019 and has been gaining momentum in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Todd Gilliland has enough experience and solid short-track ability to produce quality results. Gilliland is one of those drivers that you should probably mix into rosters if you play multiple line-ups. Lastly, I will mention Sam Mayer as one of my favorite flier options at just $5,600. The 17 year old made 3 starts in 2019 for GMS Racing. While the results were not the best, Mayer has upside and should perform better with a little experience under his belt combined with faster cars at GMS Racing this season!

2020 KDI Office Technology 200 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 KDI Office Technology 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Sheldon Creed +800 (1 unit)
Johnny Sauter +1200 (.75 unit)
Zane Smith +1200 (.75 unit)
Matt Crafton +1800 (.75 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Zane Smith +105 over Chandler Smith
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Brett Moffitt -130 over Austin Hill (3 units)
Sheldon Creed -140 over Chandler Smith (3 units)
Ben Rhodes +115 over Todd Gilliland (3 units)