2020 Henry 180 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday August 8th, 12:00PM (EST) at Michigan International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Before the Cup Series drops the green flag at Michigan on Saturday, the Xfinity Series will get their moment in the spotlight with the running of the Henry 180. While the rest of NASCAR’s touring series will be in the Irish Hills of Michigan this weekend, the Xfinity Series will host their 2nd road course event of the season at Road America. Back at the Indianapolis road course, we witnessed one of the best finishes of the season between Austin Cindric, A.J. Allmendinger, and Chase Briscoe. As we prepare for another exciting road course event, let’s take the time to discuss the best betting options with our 2020 Henry 180 race picks!

Back at Indianapolis, Austin Cindric and A.J. Allmendinger appeared to be on a collision course all afternoon in the fight for the victory. However, Chase Briscoe was able to hold both drivers at bay in a chaotic run to the finish in the final laps. This week A.J. Allmendinger returns to the #16 car and will be among the heavy betting favorites alongside Austin Cindric. Allmendinger captured a win at Road America in 2013 and is among just two drivers in the field this week that has prior wins at Elkhart Lake; Justin Allgaier is the other former winner stemming from the 2018 Johnsonville 180. Though prior winners are always given respect, it’s worth noting that there have been 10 different race winners in the 10-race history of the Xfinity Series at Road America. Allgaier and Allmendinger have the opportunity to become the first repeat winner but history tells us that a new face could likely end up in victory lane at the end of 180 miles.

Betting Strategy

Unfortunately, betting odds for the Henry 180 are extremely conservative this week. Austin Cindric is barely above even money which is absurd. Cindric is the best road course talent in the field but there is no way he deserves “Kyle Busch” type betting odds. Allmendinger is the 2nd betting favorite at 3.5 to 1 odds which seems oversaturated as well. In fact, the top 4-5 guys lack any significant betting value and the probability of someone outside of those drivers winning seems extremely small. I don’t necessarily blame odds makers because this definitely seems to be a race that will be decided among 3-4 drivers but it does make things difficult from a betting standpoint. As a result, my betting strategy will be conservative for Saturday’s Henry 180 in the realm of win odds and I will look for better value in H2H match-ups if possible.

Best Odds Value

When you look through the history at Road America, the best drivers in the series typically emerge at the front of the field and I don’t mean the best road course talents. From a layout perspective, Road America is not extremely difficult when it comes to road course venues. There are few heavy braking zones and car speed is more dynamic that many bettors would expect. In last year’s race, Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick battled in the closing laps for the victory along with Austin Cindric. In 2018, it was Justin Allgaier and Daniel Hemric that were beating the road course specialist like Justin Marks and James Davison. Therefore, we do not have to put all of our betting focus on the drivers with road course background this week.

With that being said, Chase Briscoe is an obvious choice at 6 to 1 odds. I thought Briscoe’s win at Indianapolis was the most impressive of his career and this layout at Road America provides another opportunity for Briscoe to prove he is the best driver in the series. My favorite sharp pick among the non-favorites involves Noah Gragson. Personally, I am not a fan of Gragson but I must admit that he has been rock solid on the road course venues through his young career. Gragson has finished in the top 5 in his last 4 starts at road course venues and I believe it is time people start respecting his skills for this type of racing. At 10 to 1 odds, Gragson is a live dark horse option at Road America. Lastly, don’t overlook Ross Chastain this week. Chastain is not considered a “road course” driver but he is insanely talented. Not only was Chastain solid back at Indianapolis but he drove to a 7th place finish at Road America in 2018 with an underfunded team with Johnny Davis. At 55 to 1 odds, Chastain is being downright disrespected!

Fantasy and Match-Up Targets

For potential H2H match-ups, I would reiterate that Noah Gragson is an excellent H2H option against other drivers with similar betting odds. Another driver I like in both H2H and fantasy formats includes Jeremy Clements. Clements won this race in 2017 and always performs better than normal at the road course venues. Justin Haley also deserves some consideration this week in H2H match-ups but it depends on the drivers that he will be paired against. I have personally faded Haley in recent weeks in most match-ups but this will be a race where the driver can overcome a lot of the aerodynamic disadvantages experienced at the 1.5 mile venues. Lastly, I believe everyone should have Preston Pardus ($7,500) in their fantasy lineups this week. Pardus provides the best value on the board as a result of starting dead last in the 37th position. Pardus has been very impressive in his limited starts especially on these road course layouts and enters must-play territory this week at Road America.

2020 Henry 180 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Henry 180 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Briscoe +600 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +750 (1 unit)
Noah Gragson +1200 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +5500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Ross Chastain -105 over Harrison Burton (2 units)