2020 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday August 2nd, 2020 3:08PM EST at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

For the first time in several weeks, the Cup Series will step away from the larger speedways to embark on a different style of racing when the green flag waves for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. This Sunday’s event will be the lone stop for the Cup Series in Loudon this year and perhaps provides a refresher from a schedule that has been dominated by intermediate tracks in recent weeks. Luckily, this style of racing has historically favored bettors and handicappers alike. I’ll explain the reasons behind that trend and discuss the best betting options for Sunday in our 2020 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 race picks for New Hampshire!

In the last few weeks, I have spoken frequently about “aerodynamic speed” and performance trends that have carried over from week to week. The last 3 races were all held at 1.5 mile venues with similar grip level and before that we had 3 races at Pocono and Indianapolis. Needless to say, raw aerodynamic speed has been extremely important over the last few weeks. However, this week the handicapping changes from performance trends and raw speed towards driver input. New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a one-mile flat racetrack. Drivers must roll the corner and be smooth to keep rear grip in the tires to maintain long-run speed. Driving styles on flat surfaces differ greatly from banked ovals and it is usually a direct result of the guy behind the wheel. Think about it, how many times do we see similar names emerge at the front of tracks like Martinsville, New Hampshire, and Phoenix? It’s because these tracks require more from the driver and that is exactly what our handicapping will be focused around this week. More importantly we can use this week’s handicapping focus to potentially fade against recent performance trends especially in the form of H2H match-ups.

Before we dive into driver and track history for New Hampshire, I would also note that this will be the 4th event this year where Cup Series teams will utilize the 750 horsepower package. Actually, it will be the 5th event if you count the non-points paying All-Star Race at Bristol. In the 3 prior points races, Joey Logano scored a victory at Phoenix, Brad Keselowski won at Bristol, and Martin Truex scored his only win of the season at Martinsville under this same package. Personally, I’m not quite sure the package carries heavy significance because it is designed to give more power to the driver which in-turn helps point us back to those driver trends previously mentioned. Still, it is worth at least mentioning and reviewing prior performances under the 750 horsepower package to ensure we are doing our due diligence.

New Hampshire Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Busch	126.4	5.0	3.8	5.2	4.0	61	156	264	439	1503
Martin Truex Jr	121.8	3.2	8.4	5.0	4.8	39	137	201	473	1503
Matt Kenseth	107.0	13.0	8.3	6.0	7.8	37	107	108	109	1202
Kevin Harvick	106.4	13.0	8.6	8.8	8.6	37	164	103	61	1351
Denny Hamlin	104.8	8.6	7.2	8.6	8.6	24	153	101	167	1503
Brad Keselowski	94.4	8.2	11.8	11.8	9.6	-14	178	44	14	1495
Chase Elliott	93.0	11.4	12.8	13.8	11.4	14	169	38	24	1492
Ryan Blaney	91.7	9.0	11.8	10.2	10.2	22	175	18	0	1503
Jimmie Johnson	91.2	9.8	9.2	14.4	11.4	-24	167	20	0	1490
Kurt Busch	91.2	6.6	10.4	15.2	11.4	-13	132	66	94	1351
Erik Jones	83.0	6.3	19.5	16.0	15.3	5	64	45	4	942
Joey Logano	79.7	18.8	12.6	15.2	15.0	13	152	19	1	1471
Ryan Newman	77.9	17.8	13.0	14.6	14.6	24	146	6	0	1502
Clint Bowyer	77.3	20.6	16.6	18.2	16.0	29	164	9	0	1456
Aric Almirola	76.3	19.6	15.6	16.2	16.8	36	108	62	54	1500
Daniel Suarez	75.2	15.3	14.8	13.8	16.8	26	96	10	0	1201
Alex Bowman	74.3	21.0	16.7	13.0	16.0	25	70	0	0	902
William Byron	73.9	16.5	12.0	13.0	16.0	8	61	0	0	602
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	61.9	19.2	24.0	23.8	21.4	-17	78	5	11	1331
Austin Dillon	60.5	22.0	22.0	20.6	22.2	15	43	12	0	1469
Ty Dillon	57.8	24.5	25.0	19.3	24.0	-5	18	3	0	1200
Chris Buescher	56.0	24.2	25.0	22.2	22.8	-17	27	0	0	1498
Matt DiBenedetto	51.9	22.0	28.8	24.4	26.0	-35	37	3	0	1491
Michael McDowell	49.7	24.8	25.4	23.6	25.0	-65	4	0	0	1495
Bubba Wallace	48.8	27.0	23.5	23.0	25.0	-21	4	0	0	599
Corey LaJoie	41.6	31.5	27.3	27.0	28.0	-31	0	1	0	1192
Ross Chastain	39.7	32.0	28.5	25.0	28.5	22	0	1	0	597
Reed Sorenson	33.8	35.3	33.5	31.3	32.8	-4	0	0	0	1180

Surprisingly, Kyle Busch tops the loop data rankings this week for the last 5 races in Loudon. I say surprisingly because I initially believed the top spot would belong to Kevin Harvick who has won 3 of the last 5 races at New Hampshire. However, Harvick’s average running position and total laps led (61) over those 5 races are not overly impressive considering the 3 victories. Instead, Busch leads all drivers with an impressive 126.4 rating which includes the most fastest laps (264) during that stretch. Despite never winning in Loudon, Martin Truex has been equally impressive over the last 5 races posting a 121.8 average rating which includes the most laps led (473).

The other two drivers with triple digit averages include Denny Hamlin who is fresh off his 5th win (leads Cup Series) at Kansas. Hamlin is a 3-time winner at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and owns the best average finishing position (9.88) among all active drivers. Additionally, Matt Kenseth is also on this list with a solid 107.0 average rating. Honestly if this were a 1.5 mile speedway or bigger layout; I would probably ignore Kenseth’s loop data trends because he has under-performed to most expectations. However, New Hampshire is accurately one of Kenseth’s best tracks and the perfect place to shake off the struggles of 2020 on the intermediate speedways. I have had this race circled as one of Kenseth’s most promising opportunities and I remain optimistic going into Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.

Drivers to Target (win odds)

Do I really have to mention Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin? At this point, those two names are viable options each week based on their dominance throughout 2020 which includes wins in 4 of the last 6 races. Not to mention, both drivers have been great at New Hampshire. Harvick (4) has the most wins among active drivers but there is a big group of names with 3 victories including Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, and Kurt Busch. Despite the history, I am not the biggest fan of either Harvick and Hamlin this week mainly because both drivers’ odds are completely overvalued. At 3 to 1 odds, Harvick is receiving Phoenix type betting numbers and the statistics just don’t point to that type of dominance. Meanwhile, Hamlin has just 1 win in the last 12 starts in Loudon despite having 3 career victories and I will also throw out the fact that the #11 has not looked nearly as strong under the 750 horsepower package.

Instead of riding the Harvick and Hamlin wave, I will be pivoting against the top favorites this week. One of my favorite plays is Martin Truex Jr who is currently listed just under 10 to 1 odds. Truex has been so good in recent trips to Loudon but honestly just has not had much luck go his way. Still, this is the perfect type of race for the #19 team. The racing at New Hampshire usually produces a lot of long green flag runs which is perfect for Truex who thrives on long-run setups. From my perspective, Truex has statistics that rival most of the betting favorites, has already one using this package this year, and is getting twice the value as the other favorites. As a result, the #19 is one of my favorite picks this week to win the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301!

Despite the struggles, I also believe Kyle Busch has an excellent chance at the victory this week. The #18 team’s 1.5 mile program is obviously not where they want it but this week’s race goes back to the driver. Busch has been excellent at New Hampshire with 2 wins and 4 runner-up finishes in his last 12 starts. This should be a week the #18 team can put their struggles to the side and put it in their drivers’ hands. Finally if none of the previous guys can get the job done, I like Brad Keselowski as the best betting option in the intermediate range of drivers. The stats don’t tell enough of the story but Keselowski has been really solid at Loudon with a career 11th place finishing position which is 2nd to only Denny Hamlin. Keselowski scored his only Loudon victory in 2014 but has been really strong in recent races despite not always getting the finishes to show for it.

Dark Horses and H2H Targets

We have seen enough parity at the Cup Series level this season to keep throwing units towards drivers with big payout potential. Though New Hampshire is notorious for long green flag runs, strategy is not completely out of the question especially if a few late cautions occur. If that happens, a few underrated drivers that I expect will be top 10 competitors on Sunday become immediately potential homerun threats. Kurt Busch has been running solid and is getting extremely generous odds as a former 3-time winner at Loudon. Meanwhile, Matt Kenseth and Matt DiBenedetto are among my favorite sleepers going into Sunday. I alluded to Kenseth’s impressive stats earlier and I think this is the perfect track for him to shine at this point in his career. If we do get the long green flag runs, it should play into Kenseth’s driving style.

I personally like Kenseth more in the realm of a dark horse for either a top 5 bet or the outright win. Because of the 42 teams’ struggles, he remains a slightly risky bet. For Matt DiBenedetto, the #21 is among my favorite H2H targets this week. DiBenedetto has shown great speed in recent weeks and comes to New Hampshire where he drove the #95 car to a 7th place finish in 2019. If you also consider the short track 750 horsepower trends thus far in 2020, DiBenedetto has posted some of his best finishes at those particular venues. For those reasons, target the #21 in match-ups this week because he will be paired against inferior competitors.

Drivers to Fade

I have a few drivers on my fade list this week for different reasons. For starters, Aric Almirola enters fade consideration this week based on the fact we move away from a performance track to a driver track. Almirola’s H2H value has risen sharply in recent weeks but he has a near 20th place average finishing position in Loudon. Almirola is fresh on the heels of one of the best stretches in his career where the #10 car showed significant speed at speed sensitive tracks. Sure there is an opportunity the hot streak continues but I believe the car performance will not stand out this week. As a result, I expect Almirola’s streak of 8 straight top 10 finishes to be in serious jeopardy.

A few other fade options that are on my radar this week include both Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott. I believe Bowman has become one of my favorite drivers to fade in recent weeks. After posting a blistering start to the season, Bowman has failed to finish inside the top 15 in 4 of the last 6 races. On top of the recent struggles, we now move to a track that does not fit Bowman’s driving style where he has failed to crack the top 10 in 8 career starts. Since Bowman is still being paired against solid competitors in H2H match-ups, he remains a solid fade option. Lastly, I also have Chase Elliott on my radar as a potential fade candidate simply because of track history. Elliott has failed to finish inside the top 10 in 5 of 6 career starts. In fact, in 2 of the last 3 races Elliott has failed to earn a single stage point. Simply put, this is not one of Elliott’s strong tracks and while he remains one of the series’ top talents; New Hampshire is a venue where we can legitimately think about fading the recent All-Star Race winner.

Draftkings Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Optimal Lineup

2020 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Race Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +900 (1.25 units)
Brad Keselowski +1200 (1 unit) *odds via BetOnline
Kurt Busch +3500 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +4000 (.5 unit) *early pick
Matt Kenseth +5000 (.5 unit) *early pick

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch +535 wins Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
Christopher Bell -135 over Cole Custer
Risking 1 unit to win: +1005

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Martin Truex Jr -130 over Ryan Blaney (3 units)
Matt Kenseth -130 over Ryan Newman (3 units)
Erik Jones +130 over Aric Almirola (2 units)
William Byron +115 over Alex Bowman (2 units)