2020 E.P.T. 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 25th, 2020 1:30PM EST at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

Last night Austin Hill scored his 1st victory of the season in the Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series at Kansas Speedway by winning the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 200. Today, Truck Series teams and drivers will prepare for a quick turnaround using the same trucks for the running of the E.P.T. 200. Today’s encore in the Truck Series will be the opening act in a double header with the Xfinity Series. With two betting opportunities left this weekend, let’s discuss what we learned from tonight’s opening Truck Series race at Kansas and identify the best bets for today’s with our 2020 E.P.T. 200 race picks!

A lot of my expectations going into Friday night were on target specifically around the optimistic outlook on guys like Matt Crafton, Zane Smith, and Derek Kraus. Unfortunately, I was hugely mistaken by fading Austin Hill. I personally thought the #16 team had lost their momentum and thought they were overvalued going into the opening Kansas race. Instead, Austin Hill put those thoughts to bed. The truck was extremely fast and the driver did one heck of a job behind the wheel. The only driver that could show similar lap times throughout the night was Brett Moffitt. Moffitt appeared to have similar speed as the #16 but struggled significantly beside other trucks. If Moffitt can get clean air Saturday, he could become a dangerous threat for the win.

Perhaps the biggest surprise to Friday night’s race was the performance of the Kyle Busch Motorsports trucks. I thought this opening race at Kansas was setting up nicely for Christian Eckes following an outstanding performance last week at Texas. Instead, all of the KBM trucks looked bad. Christian Eckes was the outright betting favorite going into the opening race and Brandon Jones was a heavy favorite as well. Jones did get a penalty on pit road but don’t let that fact fool you; the #51 truck was never competitive. In fact, all 3 KBM trucks finished outside the top 10 for the first time at a 1.5 mile speedway in recent memory. With a quick turnaround on Saturday with the same equipment, it’s hard to imagine that KBM can make the changes necessary to be potential winners on Saturday and that significantly downgrades the value on both Eckes and Jones.

Drivers to Target

Clearly Austin Hill and Brett Moffitt were the top 2 trucks in Friday night’s event and I would expect both trucks to be very fast again on Saturday. I am sure Hill’s betting odds will be nearly unplayable from the speed he displayed at the end of the race. However, I think we can still be semi-aggressive on a few long shots. Despite the speed by the top 2 trucks, this is still a race for track position which means clean air can definitely shake things up.

Among the guys that I believe are within striking distance on speed include Matt Crafton, Zane Smith, and surprisingly Derek Kraus. I put Kraus on my fantasy target list prior to Friday’s Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 200. Despite missing the pick on Eckes, Kraus single-handedly saved my fantasy lineups. The rookie just keeps getting better with every start and the team has solid speed. I expect Kraus’s win odds to be very generous tomorrow and potentially playable for a big underdog. Meanwhile, I still believe Zane Smith and Matt Crafton are performing well enough to win as well. Once again, Zane Smith was in the top 5 nearly all afternoon and once again Matt Crafton finished inside the top 5 with really good long run speed. Both trucks need to be better to beat Hill but they are close on speed.

Drivers to Fade

I alluded to earlier that the KBM trucks were pretty awful Friday night and I really don’t see them turning things around under the circumstances tomorrow. There are very few changes the trucks can make overnight without having to start from the rear. It’s really weird that all 3 trucks struggled on speed which makes me think they all missed the camber setup or something to that effect. While I am purely speculating, I still love to suggest a fade play against Rafael Lessard. Lessard has continued to be paired against decent competitors like Tyler Ankrum, Derek Kraus, and others. I’m assuming Lessard continues to get respect because he is driving KBM equipment. The truth is Lessard has not finished inside the top 10 all season in that prestigious KBM equipment and he appears to be completely outclassed by his closest competitors. Therefore, keep Lessard at the top of your fade list for Saturday.

One additional driver that could be targeted in fades is the #2 of Sheldon Creed. I nearly put Creed on my fade list going into Friday’s event but the speed shown from the entire GMS Racing stable kept me from doing that. While GMS Racing continues to show speed, I thought Creed was the worst of the group on Friday. The truck had significant handling issues. Creed constantly complained about being loose and none of the adjustments seemed to help. In recent weeks, Creed’s H2H value has risen sharply and while I believe he is a talented driver; Saturday’s race at Kansas could be a sharp fade opportunity against the #2 truck.

Draftkings E.P.T. 200 Optimal Lineup

2020 E.P.T. 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Hill +350 (1 unit) *courtesy of MyBookie
Brett Moffitt +690 (1 unit)
Matt Crafton +1800 (.75 unit)
Stewart Friesen +3500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups

Austin Hill -115 over Brandon Jones (3 units) *courtesy of MyBookie
Matt Crafton -105 over Sheldon Creed (2 units)
Stewart Friesen -115 over Tanner Gray (2 units)