NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Wednesday July 15th, 8:30PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
For the first time since 1986, the NASCAR All-Star Race will be held outside of Charlotte, NC. Due to complications around scheduling related to COVID-19, NASCAR’s most prestigious non-points race will move to “The Last Great Colosseum” at Bristol Motor Speedway late Wednesday night for the 2020 rendition of the All-Star Race. Since the inception of the All-Star Race in 1985, only once (Atlanta) has this race been held outside of Charlotte and this Wednesday’s event will be the first of its kind on a short track. Bristol has always provoked the “bullring” reputation and surely action will be intensified with a million dollars on the line. With the anticipation building, let’s take the time to provide a preview of the 2020 All-Star Race at Bristol Motor Speedway!
2020 All-Star Race Format and Rules
Similar to prior All-Star Race formats, The NASCAR Open will be held prior to the All-Star Race which will give non-qualifying drivers the opportunity to race their way into the main event. There will be 3 stages in the open (35/35/15) with the winner of each staging earning a ticket into the All-Star Race. One final spot will be given via an All-Star Fan Vote to the remaining eligible drivers. The fan vote will be given to the driver with the most votes following the NASCAR Open. Once the All-Star Race begins, there will be 4 stages consisting of 55 laps, 35 laps, 35 laps, and a final 15 lap shootout to decide the winner. The final 15 lap stage will be accounted for by green flag laps only. All prior stages will count both green flag and caution laps.
From a rules and competition standpoint, NASCAR will not experiment with new rules packages this year. The 2020 short-track rules package will be unchanged with teams utilizing the same rules that were run in the SuperMarket Heroes 500 back in May. The one significant change that will take place Wednesday will be the “choose rule” which will allow drivers the decision of which lane they will select on the restarts. In current rules, the leader of the race has the ability to choose the inside or outside lane for each restart while all other competitors line up according to the running order. For Wednesday’s All-Star Race, the top driver in each row will have lane choice as they come to the 1 to go lap. For example, Bristol’s outside groove is typically where you want to be on restarts. However, we have seen competitors lose significant ground by starting 3rd, 5th, or on the inside lane in certain situations over the years. Those drivers will now have the option to start on the outside lane if they choose to do so in an attempt to create a more fair playing field for restarts relative to the running order.
Eligibility
The drivers listed below are currently eligible for the 2020 All-Star Race. Eligibility includes full-time drivers that have won a race from 2019-2020, former Cup Series Champions, and former winners of the All-Star Race:
| No. | Driver | Sponsor | Make | Organization |
|---|
| 1 | Kurt Busch | Monster Energy | Chevrolet | Chip Ganassi Racing |
| 2 | Brad Keselowski | Discount Tire | Ford | Team Penske |
| 4 | Kevin Harvick | Busch Light Apple | Ford | Stewart-Haas Racing |
| 6 | Ryan Newman | Oscar Mayer Bacon | Ford | Roush Fenway Racing |
| 9 | Chase Elliott | Unifirst | Chevrolet | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 11 | Denny Hamlin | FedEx Ground | Toyota | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 12 | Ryan Blaney | BodyArmor | Ford | Team Penske |
| 18 | Kyle Busch | M&Ms | Toyota | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | Bass Pro Shops/Tracker/USO | Toyota | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 20 | Erik Jones | Craftsman | Toyota | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 22 | Joey Logano | Shell Pennzoil | Ford | Team Penske |
| 41 | Cole Custer | HaasTooling.com | Ford | Stewart-Haas Racing |
| 42 | Matt Kenseth | McDonald’s McDelivery | Chevrolet | Chip Ganassi Racing |
| 48 | Jimmie Johnson | Ally | Chevrolet | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 77 | Justin Haley | Fraternal Order of Eagles | Chevrolet | Spire Motorsports |
| 88 | Alex Bowman | ChevyGoods.com/NOCO Patriotic | Chevrolet | Hendrick Motorsports |
Handicapping Notes
For my new followers, I do not release official betting picks for the All-Star Race or any non-points paying events. The reason for this is because these races have a high degree of uncertainty and the actual format is assembled to entice chaos. As a result, it is not an ideal betting event especially when you consider this race will likely come down to short-run speed and restarts in the closing laps. Despite the fact that I will not be releasing “official” picks, I still want to point out a few topics for those that want to lay some action.
It was not long ago the Cup Series visited Bristol with the running of the SuperMarket Heroes 500. If you remember that race, it was a 3 car battle in the closing laps between Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano. Ultimately the race ended with Elliott running into Logano which allowed Brad Keselowski to seemingly come out of nowhere to steal the victory. We may very well see something similar this Wednesday night in this short action-packed event that will surely provoke aggressive driving.
From the race in May, it was relatively clear that 5 cars emerged as the best driver/car combinations which included Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Kyle Busch. Busch did not get into the battle for the victory at the end but he led 100 laps with an ill-handling race car. The #18 team has not been performing to expectations this season but if there is any place on earth where Rowdy can overcome equipment factors; it is Bristol where he was won 22 times across all of NASCAR’s touring series including 8 times in the Cup Series.
Obviously we cannot expect things to play out like they did in May. Teams are going to adjust and experiment with new setups which will cause some degree of variance. With that being said, I still believe that Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Busch are the best drivers at this particular track. Despite 0 wins, Elliott actually leads all active drivers with a 12.67 average finishing position at Bristol. Elliott has finished inside the top 5 in 2 of the last 4 Cup Series races at Bristol and that does not include the 22nd place finish in May when he was battling for the lead with 2 laps to go. Meanwhile when you look over the last 7 races at Bristol, Kyle Busch and Logano are the only drivers that have posted an average rating over 100. Denny Hamlin deserves a notable mention for being close in that category as well.
Betting Notes and Dark Horses
One of the reasons I have never enjoyed betting on the All-Star Race is because you rarely find valuable odds due to the limited number of competitors based on eligibility. From a personal betting standpoint, I usually will place a few low risk bets on dark horses to pique my betting interest. I will be looking at that opportunity again this week with a few dark horses that likely deserve some betting consideration. If you are looking for more value, we may be able to pivot from the “favorites” towards a few dark horses that I have on my radar including the likes of Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Ryan Blaney.
Obviously when I say dark horses, we are not going to see extremely long odds this week but these drivers should have better odds than the top competitors. Blaney has been so good throughout the 2020 season and many people may forget that he had the dominant car in May before he wrecked while leading the race. Meanwhile, Kurt Busch is a 6-time winner at Bristol and I love his aggressive driving style for this type of event. If the elder Busch can get in position to make something happen in the last stage, it will be exciting. Lastly, I would not be surprised if Jimmie Johnson pulled out a miracle Wednesday. Johnson is a two-time winner at Bristol and is one of the most consistent front-runners. He does not always post dominant statistics (fast laps/laps led) but he always finds a way to be upfront which is exactly what you want in a dark horse.
I have not seen any odds for the NASCAR Open at this time but this qualifying event is going to be exciting. We have several popular drivers that will be fighting for an opportunity at the All-Star Race including guys like Clint Bowyer, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Ricky Stenhouse, and others. If match-ups or NASCAR Open odds become available, I really like Bowyer and Stenhouse as the main targets. I’m sure Bowyer will be in the “favorite” category but do not overlook Ricky Stenhouse’s talent for getting around Bristol Motor Speedway. Both drivers are excellent options to emerge out of the Open and into the All-Star Race!
