2020 Buckle Up Your Truck 225 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 11th, 2020 6:15PM EST at Kentucky Speedway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

The Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series returns to action this Saturday at Kentucky Speedway with the running of the Buckle Up Your Truck 225. After having a week off since Brandon Jones’ most recent victory at Pocono, the Truck Series will embark on a stretch of 4 races at 1.5 mile venues over the next 3 weeks. Therefore, Saturday night’s 150 lap event could provide a strong indicator of expectations over the next several races. As we prepare for the Truck Series at Kentucky, let’s discuss our expectations along with our 2020 Buckle Up Your Truck 225 race picks!

If you are like me, perhaps the Truck Series has felt like the Wild Wild West in 2020. From race to race, we have seen huge fluctuations in performance and it has been extremely hard to handicap these races. The lack of practices affects handicapping more in the Truck Series than any other series because the trucks typically yield the most comparable carryover speed from practice to races. Also because trucks drive differently than stock cars, it becomes imperative that teams must nail the balance on the setup. If you miss the balance with the trucks, you will not run at the front of the field which is one of the reasons we have seen so much variance from race to race in the Truck Series thus far.

Over years of betting the Truck Series, one betting angle that never disappoints revolves around current performance trends. I will take current performance over track/driver history almost every time in the Truck Series and I believe that is important to remember over these next few weeks at races on similar 1.5 mile layouts. Since these races will have many similarities and we have already witnessed 4 races on 1.5 mile layouts this season, I thought this would be a good opportunity to compile loop data stats from the prior races this year on 1.5 mile surfaces. By examining this information, it gives bettors a strong baseline of current performance trends going into this stretch of 1.5 mile venues!

Loop Data

*Data reflects collective results of the 4 races this season on 1.5 mile surfaces (Las Vegas, Charlotte, Atlanta, and Homestead)

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Pct. Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Austin Hill	115.2	4.0	9.3	5.3	5.8	47	169	71.9	31	91	538
Christian Eckes	96.5	3.8	9.0	12.0	10.5	1	104	57.3	19	45	534
Johnny Sauter	96.5	7.3	12.0	7.8	10.8	91	198	65.5	11	10	538
Todd Gilliland	94.9	16.5	7.0	13.5	9.8	12	157	79.7	6	0	506
Ben Rhodes	94.6	8.0	7.3	10.5	8.8	44	191	72.9	12	2	538
Matt Crafton	92.2	11.0	10.3	15.0	12.0	47	151	63.0	7	7	511
Grant Enfinger	90.7	6.5	12.0	15.3	11.8	38	134	66.0	6	7	493
Sheldon Creed	89.2	10.0	12.5	12.3	10.5	10	180	66.0	5	8	538
Zane Smith	81.7	14.5	18.0	12.8	16.3	38	126	67.0	8	20	423
Tyler Ankrum	81.6	5.5	18.5	10.3	14.0	-14	128	54.8	3	0	538
Raphael Lessard	81.3	15.3	10.8	18.8	13.8	-54	138	59.3	2	2	494
Brett Moffitt	80.1	11.0	14.0	16.0	14.3	6	154	83.6	7	2	424
Ty Majeski	79.4	12.8	14.3	12.8	14.3	-19	121	54.6	1	0	537
Derek Kraus	75.6	14.8	14.3	15.0	15.0	-23	128	47.8	5	0	535
Tanner Gray	74.2	14.5	21.5	12.8	16.8	57	97	36.0	4	0	538
Stewart Friesen	73.6	15.8	13.0	15.8	17.0	20	112	44.5	0	0	534
Brennan Poole	64.0	26.5	17.5	22.5	20.3	32	89	31.5	0	0	487
Spencer Davis	60.9	28.8	23.5	22.8	22.3	34	68	20.1	1	0	456
Austin Wayne Self	57.8	25.0	22.3	20.8	22.0	-50	31	16.0	0	0	534
Tate Fogleman	56.0	22.5	28.0	22.8	24.5	-7	25	10.0	1	0	533
Codie Rohrbaugh	50.3	21.5	27.3	24.5	26.5	-113	4	5.0	1	0	530
Cory Roper	46.8	22.5	22.5	25.8	23.3	-76	12	8.3	0	0	526
Jordan Anderson	43.5	19.5	26.5	30.0	27.3	-58	8	5.0	1	1	477
Angela Ruch	42.3	25.8	27.8	25.0	27.5	-8	9	4.1	0	0	531
Spencer Boyd	40.5	27.0	27.0	25.0	27.3	-48	10	5.3	2	0	530
Korbin Forrister	39.8	30.0	30.3	29.0	29.7	-26	9	5.5	1	0	362
Clay Greenfield	38.8	37.3	31.3	28.7	30.0	-59	3	2.1	2	0	386
Jennifer Jo Cobb	33.5	33.7	33.0	30.0	32.0	-36	0	0.0	1	0	374

As you can see from the loop data above, Austin Hill has clearly been the best driver/truck combination on the 1.5 mile tracks with an impressive 115.2 rating. I actually feel like Hill may be the best driver in the series right now despite the fact he is still seeking his 1st win of the season. Behind Hill, I was rather surprised to see Christian Eckes ranked 2nd. It seems like Eckes has been hit or miss this season. However, the stats show the #18 team has been best on the 1.5 mile surfaces which directly correlates to the raw speed often shown by the KBM Trucks.

As we look through the rest of the loop data, I would like to point out that all 4 of the Thorsport Racing Trucks are listed in the top 8 positions. Despite some struggles this year, Thorsport Racing continues to show speed and post quality finishes. If you look past the loop data, Kentucky has been a strong track for this team as well. Ben Rhodes and Matt Crafton are former winners. Meanwhile, Johnny Sauter and Grant Enfinger have been close on several occasions. In the Xfinity Series preview, I mentioned that Kentucky most closely resembled Las Vegas out of the tracks already visited this season and I would further state they are running the same tire compound from Las Vegas as well. If you look back at the results from Vegas, Thorsport Racing had 3 drivers (Sauter, Rhodes, Crafton) finish inside the top 5. Therefore while the likes of Hill and Eckes are the betting favorites, this could be the perfect opportunity to pivot back to the likes of Sauter, Rhodes, or Crafton.

Drivers to Target

In terms of drivers to target, Austin Hill is an obvious choice as I believe the #16 truck is overdue for a victory. However, I am not nearly as confident towards some of the other betting favorites like Christian Eckes and Brett Moffitt. I don’t believe either of those drivers have shown consistent speed or ability to stay upfront to justify their odds. Chandler Smith steps into the #51 truck this week for his 1st start of the season. Smith was excellent in limited starts in 2019 finishing inside the top 5 in 3 of 4 races. I believe the expectations are high because of the equipment and the success in 2019. However, I don’t believe Smith deserves the “favorite” style odds considering this will be his 1st Truck Series start at a track over 1 mile in length.

To be completely honest, I do not have strong leans towards any drivers this week. I explained how important track position and clean air is at Kentucky in my Xfinity Series preview. For Saturday’s Truck Series race, the same rules apply and perhaps clean air will be even more important with how sporadic these competitors have been this season. Therefore I am going to approach this race conservatively and seeks value bets. I mentioned the Thorsport Racing drivers performance trends that suggest consideration and I really like their betting value as well. Ben Rhodes and Johnny Sauter stand out as the most likely breakout drivers for the group but all 4 drivers deserve legit consideration.

Outside of Thorsport Racing, Sheldon Creed and Zane Smith remain ideal targets. Some may be expecting Tyler Ankrum’s name to show up in our targets based on his win at Kentucky in 2019 but I simply have not witnessed enough speed from the #26 truck to warrant the notion they could win for the 2nd straight year. For Zane Smith, he did not show up in our loop data because of one disastrous finish. However, Smith has posted finishes of 6th, 3rd, 5th, and 37th on the 1.5 mile track this year. Smith will be starting from the 2nd position Saturday and though there are good tracks around him; he could be a legit factor if he can stay towards the front near clean air.

Drivers to Fade

I have faded Stewart Friesen for several weeks with success but odds makers are now starting to pair Frisen against lower-rated drivers which may put an end to our streak of fades against the #52 truck. For Saturday’s Buckle Up Your Truck 225, my main fades include Brett Moffitt and Tyler Ankrum. I think both drivers are being given too much historical value here and Moffitt’s odds are likely overvalued because he drew the pole position. Either way, the #23 and #26 trucks have not shown a lot of speed this season. Moffitt is supposed to be one of the best in the series but he ranks far down our loop data stats shown above. Moffitt has just one top 5 finish for the entire year but is getting enormous favorite style odds which provides the perfect fade formula. For Tyler Ankrum, I imagine he would be the more risky fade because of the team’s inconsistency combined with the fact Ankrum will be paired against bottom-tier drivers. Still, I would keep Ankrum on your radar for fade purposes if you can find him against some of the drivers listed above that should compete for the outright victory!

Draftkings Buckle Up Your Truck 225 Optimal Lineup

2020 Buckle Up Your Truck 225 Race Picks

*Final*

Christian Eckes +565 (1 unit)
Johnny Sauter +1000 (.75 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1200 (.75 unit)
Zane Smith +1400 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1800 (.75 unit) *early play
Todd Gilliland +1600 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Johnny Sauter +115 over Chandler Smith
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Sheldon Creed -110 over Tyler Ankrum (2 units)
Christian Eckes -115 over Brett Moffitt (2 units)