2020 Alsco 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Friday July 10th, 8:00PM (EST) at Kentucky Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

In Thursday night’s Shady Rays 200, Austin Cindric finally got his 1st victory of the season at Kentucky Speedway. Cindric has shown winning speed in several races this year but failed to get the job done. However that was not the case Thursday, Cindric nailed his final two restarts denying Chase Briscoe his 6th victory of the season. On Friday, the Xfinity Series will prepare for round 2 at Kentucky with an extra 100 miles in the Alsco 300. We take the time to discuss everything we learned from Thursday night’s event and what bettors should expect on Friday by way of our 2020 Alsco 300 race picks!

Honestly, Thursday’s Shady Rays 200 went according to plan from a handicapping standpoint. I really felt like all of my picks were really strong. Granted Brandon Jones got wrecked on the opening lap and we never really got to see his potential speed. Michael Annett had a really strong night despite the fact he struggled to pass cars. In my big H2H match-up bet favoring Annett over Anthony Alfredo, Annett nearly let Alfredo around him on the last lap but the caution perhaps saved us. Initial scoring had Alfredo in the 5th position but that was later given correctly to Annett who was still ahead when the caution waved. Despite the scary last lap, Annett was clearly the faster car for the majority of the night and should be given a lot of respect going into Friday in H2H situations once again.

Since I felt like the majority of my expectations for Thursday came to fruition, I am not going to spend too much time going over prior history and trends again. We have already discussed those topics prior to Thursday’s event. Instead, I am going to briefly discuss some of the relatively surprising factors from Thursday’s 200 mile race that should be considered ahead of Friday night’s encore. I will try to keep most of these topics relatively brief because I am about to jump into preparation for Saturday’s Truck Series race. Therefore, let’s hit the important notes from the Shady Rays 200 as we prepare for another keen betting opportunity.

Drivers to Target

From a winning standpoint, Thursday’s preview was nearly on point. Despite Chase Briscoe not having the best car and admittedly Kentucky not being his best track, he still had a chance at victory in the closing laps. I simply base this on Briscoe’s talent and expect him to be around the front again on Friday. Behind Briscoe, I thought Austin Cindric clearly had the fastest car on Thursday. Noah Gragson led the most laps (87) but I attribute most of that success to track position. I warned bettors that Kentucky is a very difficult track for passing and clear air is king. We saw the proof of that concept on every restart and green flag run in the Shady Rays 200.

Behind Briscoe and Cindric, there was not a clear 3rd best car and was really just about track position. We could say that Noah Gragson was among the best cars but Gragson really struggled after he lost the lead. I was impressed with Ross Chastain who rallied to finish 3rd after losing track position at the end of stage 2. I still feel like the Kaulig Racing cars lack aero speed but Chastain had a solid performance behind the wheel. Justin Allgaier got considerably better as the night progressed but got into another late race accident which seems to be the norm. Perhaps the two biggest surprises in terms of speed and performance were from the Joe Gibbs Racing camp in youngsters Harrison Burton and Riley Herbst!

I actually took Burton at 12 to 1 odds for Thursday’s race. Burton was really strong early but the 2nd half of the race was filled with errors. The pit crew was penalized, Burton had a terrible restart, then was wrecked during the final stage. I am not sure what Burton’s odds will be on Friday but if there are near the 12 to 1 range that was offered on Thursday; I will be targeting the #20 team simply based on speed alone. Similar notions can be focused towards teammate Riley Herbst as well. Herbst was 33 to 1 at closing and posting his best career performance with a runner-up finish. To be honest, Herbst was probably more like a 5th-6th place car for most of the night before capitalizing on the restarts. Either way, the team and driver still exceeded expectations and may be worth a H2H look on Friday.

Drivers to Fade

I advocated fading the Kaulig Racing cars Thursday night because I expected they would have an aero speed disadvantage. Though the prediction was correct both Chastain and Haley salvaged their results by gaining ground on the final two restarts. I warned bettors Chastain was probably the least favorable fade option because of his knack for overachieving. The #10 car was a borderline top 5 car on Thursday and I would expect that to be his ceiling on Friday. I believe Justin Haley is still a good fade option going into Friday. Despite salvaging a 7th place result, Haley was struggling to stay inside the top 10 during green flag portions of Thursday’s event. Therefore, I believe Haley is an ideal fade for the 2nd night in a row.

Another driver that I will be looking to fade going into Friday includes the #21 of Anthony Alfredo. I thought Alfredo overachieved with a 6th place finish on Thursday. Granted the #21 car was fast, I thought Alfredo was probably more along the lines of a 10th place car. The young driver made some aggressive moves throughout the night and ruffled a lot of feathers. If he races that way for a 2nd straight night, it is very likely he will be in the fence at some point. If you can get good odds fading the #21, I think Friday will be an opportune situational fade.

Fantasy Targets

The starting lineup for the Alsco 300 will feature the top 15 inverted positions from Thursday’s race which puts Myatt Snider on the pole. Though there are numerous options to consider, I feel like Brandon Jones, Daniel Hemric, and Harrison Burton are nearly must-play drivers because of their starting positions. Justin Allgaier likely deserves to be in that group but his price tag is more expensive as well. Jeb Burton and Jones were involved in a wreck on lap 1 and will be starting at the rear of the field which provides a ton of upside in place-differential potential. Hemric takes over the #8 car for Jeb Burton and should provide an upgrade behind the wheel. If you remember, I was really high on Jones going into Thursday. I’m not sure how the back-up car will be in terms of speed but he is a must-play fantasy option.

In terms of dark horses and flier options, I thought Brandon Brown was the correct fantasy option on Thursday. Brown was involved in an accident and finished 27th. The #68 car has top 10 potential and will be worth a look. Another driver that had a disappointing outing was Jeffrey Earnhardt. Earnhardt had mechanical failure in the final stage which yielded a 29th place finish and provides another value option with top 20 upside. Lastly, I am going to throw Noah Gragson into the sharp fantasy bets for Friday despite the price tag. Gragson slid back on the final two restarts to an 11th place result. The good news for Friday is he could easily jump out into the lead early again with no big competition threats around him. The #9 car was really stout in clean air on Thursday and since he is the best car starting inside the top several rows; I believe Gragson could be the early recipient of clean air yet again on Friday!

2020 Alsco 300 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Alsco 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Cindric +370 (1.5 units)
Noah Gragson +400 (1.25 units)
Harrison Burton +1400 (.75 unit)
Brandon Jones +1400 (.75 unit)
Riley Herbst +3700 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Harrison Burton -135 over Justin Haley (2 units)
Riley Herbst +125 over Justin Haley (2 units)
Michael Annett +120 over Anthony Alfredo (2 units)