2020 Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday July 5th, 3:30PM (EST) at Indianapolis Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series will step into the spotlight as the main event of this weekend’s racing festivities at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Just one day after both Xfinity Series and the NTT Indycar Series debuted on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course on Independence Day, the Cup Series will return to the traditional 2.5 mile rectangular oval for a chance to kiss the yard of bricks at the start/finish line which is the most hallowed ground in all of motorsports. As we prepare for another historic Brickyard 400, let’s take a look at how we should approach Sunday’s race in terms of betting. We breakdown everything you should know and provide our 2020 Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 at the Brickyard race picks!

One of the huge storylines going into Sunday’s event surrounds Jimmie Johnson. Friday afternoon, NASCAR announced Jimmie Johnson tested positive for COVID-19 and would miss the Brickyard 400. Johnson must sit out until he is removed of all symptoms and can pass two consecutive tests meaning the extent of his absence is still uncertain. Johnson is a 4-time winner of the Brickyard which is the most among active drivers. Obviously he was not a betting favorite for Sunday’s race but surely Johnson was hopeful of another run at the bricks in his last season. Instead, Johnson becomes the 1st Cup Series driver to test positive for COVID-19 at the Cup Series level and will be out of action for an undetermined amount of time.

Outside of Johnson, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch are the only drivers in the field with multiple wins at the Brickyard. Harvick is a two-time winner and defending winner of this race. This week’s race at Indianapolis comes at a great time for the #4 team fresh off a win followed by a runner-up finish at both Pocono races last weekend. Pocono and Indianapolis have a lot of similarities therefore we can look at last week’s performances and apply them towards expectations to Sunday. The tunnel turn at Pocono was designed after Indianapolis and both tracks share similarities in banking and overall size. Outside of Harvick, Kyle Busch is the only other driver with multiple wins. Busch scored back to back wins at Indianapolis in 2015 and 2016. However, Busch is still searching for his 1st win of 2020 marking his longest winless start to a season since 2006.

The good news for Busch is that the Joe Gibbs Racing cars were really strong at Pocono. Denny Hamlin, like Harvick, finished with a victory and runner-up finish making the #11 a prime candidate for a run at the bricks on Sunday. Meanwhile, Martin Truex, Erik Jones, and Busch all had their moments during last weekend’s double header at Pocono. After a 5th place finish on Saturday, the #18 team improved and appeared to be in position to challenge for a victory on Sunday. Unfortunately, Busch was wrecked by Ryan Blaney as the two attempted to race back through the field after a pit stop. While it was another blunder for the #18 team in terms of finish, we should not look past the performance and speed shown by Rowdy’s group last week.

Brickyard 400 Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	120.9	3.6	4.0	4.0	6.0	-22	138	107	215	821
Kyle Busch	117.4	3.8	6.8	16.2	9.6	33	115	140	282	691
Matt Kenseth	104.4	21.0	9.3	6.5	9.0	73	154	32	26	661
Joey Logano	103.0	6.4	10.6	5.6	8.2	3	130	14	45	821
Denny Hamlin	100.3	13.8	14.4	7.0	9.8	24	150	30	37	820
Brad Keselowski	95.5	11.8	16.2	13.6	13.0	44	125	17	64	709
Clint Bowyer	91.4	13.4	15.2	13.6	13.6	-23	112	16	37	801
Ryan Blaney	89.3	15.0	7.8	17.8	11.4	5	118	21	26	798
Kurt Busch	85.5	9.8	12.6	17.8	13.4	-44	134	31	19	798
William Byron	85.0	25.5	16.0	11.5	13.0	15	38	4	4	320
Erik Jones	84.5	12.0	18.3	23.7	16.3	32	80	7	10	356
Martin Truex Jr	82.6	11.4	19.0	22.4	18.6	50	94	35	8	641
Jimmie Johnson	80.5	9.6	16.8	19.2	14.4	54	138	10	4	757
Ryan Newman	78.5	19.2	14.6	12.6	14.6	10	112	2	0	817
Daniel Suarez	76.2	18.3	13.0	12.0	15.7	12	63	1	0	487
Aric Almirola	70.8	20.4	14.8	22.6	20.0	-1	80	5	0	815
Chase Elliott	70.5	18.8	20.6	19.2	20.8	2	77	9	0	697
Austin Dillon	69.5	18.6	21.6	17.8	18.8	-9	78	6	0	816
Chris Buescher	68.6	21.8	20.3	15.8	21.0	61	50	1	0	655
Bubba Wallace	64.9	21.5	32.5	20.5	23.5	6	23	4	0	217
Ty Dillon	59.4	27.7	21.3	17.7	22.0	-25	22	0	0	485
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	58.2	18.8	18.4	29.4	23.8	-67	55	2	0	726
Michael McDowell	56.2	26.0	26.4	21.2	24.6	3	21	1	0	816
Alex Bowman	53.1	21.0	34.7	32.3	25.3	-21	36	2	0	380
Matt DiBenedetto	43.7	30.8	30.4	26.8	30.2	-26	24	1	0	582
Corey LaJoie	42.0	31.7	33.7	28.7	31.3	-24	0	0	0	327
B.J. McLeod	35.7	38.3	33.3	29.0	33.0	-3	0	0	0	449
J.J. Yeley	34.2	36.5	36.0	32.8	34.3	-17	0	0	0	544
Timmy Hill	33.3	39.3	36.7	30.0	36.7	-12	0	0	0	402

I am not going to spend too much time talking about loop data this week. I actually prefer loop data statistics more at tracks we visit more than once per year. In the focus of Indianapolis, we have stats included this week that dates back to 2015 which is not exactly ideal for establishing newer trends. Still, these statistics point to the drivers that often emerge at the front and have a knack for getting around the fast flat corners at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

With that being said, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch have maintained tremendous driver ratings over the last 5 races at the Brickyard. Meanwhile, Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano, and Denny Hamlin are the only other drivers to establish a plus 100 rating through the same stretch. I would also point specific mentions to Clint Bowyer and Joey Logano. Despite never winning at Indianapolis, Logano has been really strong over the years including two runner-up finishes in the last 5 races. Meanwhile, Clint Bowyer is a driver that I think could be a legitimate sleeper this week. Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing, Bowyer has been really solid at the Brickyard including back to back 5th place finishes in the last 2 starts. Similar to JGR’s speed shown last week, Stewart-Haas Racing also displayed a lot of raw speed which vaults Bowyer’s dark horse chances going into Sunday’s event.

Drivers to Target

Despite Denny Hamlin’s speed last week at Pocono and overall momentum, he has never been “great” at Indianapolis. Part of me thinks this is Hamlin’s best chance to win at Indianapolis and the other half is saying that we should likely steer clear of the #11 team based on his track history combined with current odds. As a result, I really believe Kevin Harvick remains the top target on Sunday if you had to choose among the favorites. The #4 team has had the best raw speed. Despite winning on Saturday, Harvick was actually much faster in Sunday’s race last week but simply got behind in the game of track position late in the race. I think that is a strong sign for Harvick going into Sunday’s race because they obviously have enough speed in that car that they just have to get close on the setup for a chance to win.

For drivers battling for the outright win, I expect Kyle Busch will be a factor this weekend. I really thought Busch’s winless streak would end at Pocono with two chances at a track where Rowdy has been really strong. Perhaps the winless streak will continue but Indianapolis presents another great opportunity. The #18 team simply needs a little luck. Avoid trouble and just get in position to win a race. If you could guarantee me that Busch gets track position in this race late, I would put heavy money on him despite the “favorite” odds. Since track position is never guaranteed, my expectations for Busch remain conservatively optimistic. Another driver that I think is flying under the radar is Joey Logano. Team Penske has shown plenty of speed this year and while Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski have been best in recent races, this is the perfect position for Joey Logano to deliver a somewhat underdog style victory. Logano will start from the pole position which will help in the battle for track position. Earlier this week, Logano’s odds varied by a wide margin at different sportsbooks before taking a dive with the announcement of the pole position. I expect Logano’s odds will improve as we move closer to race time and if I see a number around the 10 to 1 range, I will be adding the #22 to my lineup.

When it comes to true betting targets in the form of match-ups, Clint Bowyer and Aric Almirola are at the top of my list this week. I mentioned the reasons I favor Bowyer this week above but the same can be said for Aric Almirola. Obviously, overall speed shown by Stewart-Haas Racing at the “horsepower” tracks plays a big role into these betting targets this week. Many people will likely look away from Almirola this week because his stats at Indianapolis have been rather forgettable. However, you cannot overlook raw speed at Indianapolis and the #10 team has a ton of momentum. For the first time in Almirola’s career, he has posted 4 straight top 5 finishes including two last week at Pocono. For whatever reason, this team has been putting fast cars on the track and this week’s race at Indianapolis is the perfect venue to build off last week’s success!

Drivers to Fade

I was extremely disappointed with Hendrick Motorsports performance last week at Pocono. I thought it was the perfect opportunity to showcase Chevrolet and Hendrick’s improvement in the “raw speed” department. Instead, I was left with some skepticism. For Sunday, this should be another opportunity for Hendrick to rebound. Chase Elliott was reportedly really strong in the tunnel turn last week at Pocono which yields optimism this week and honestly Elliott’s odds definitely require betting consideration at nearly 15 to 1 odds. I can get behind Elliott and possible betting considerations for William Byron who has a strong track record at Indianapolis.

For the rest of the Chevrolets, I am not so confident. In fact, I would strong consider fading Justin Allgaier in all match-ups if presented. Allgaier will be filling in for Jimmie Johnson in the #48 car and while I’m not certain he will be offered in match-ups, I think bettors should jump at the opportunity to fade the full-time Xfinity Series driver. For starters, the difference in downforce between the Xfinity and Cup Series cars is extreme and Allgaier has never been great at Indianapolis even in Xfinity Series competition. With no practice, I would likely put heavy fade consideration into Allgaier if match-ups are offered.

If not, I would consider a few other Chevrolets to fade in the likes of Kurt Busch and Tyler Reddick should be explored. I am a huge fan of Reddick’s driving potential and pulling for him to win the Rookie of the Year race over the hyped talents of Cole Custer and Christopher Bell. However, Indianapolis is not exactly a track that fits Reddick’s strengths especially if the Chevrolets lack speed again this week. For Kurt Busch, he has never been good at Indianapolis with just a single top 5 finish in 19 career starts. Busch had some success last week at Pocono thanks to track position and I am hoping that vaults his value going into Indy. If I can find Busch paired against some of the faster JGR or SHR cars, I will fade with confidence.

2020 Brickyard 400 Fantasy Predictions

For fantasy purposes, I really like Joey Logano on Sunday though I am sure his ownership will rise because of the pole starting position. At just $9,200, Logano still holds some value as a potential driver that can lead some laps and provide a quality finish. Obviously, Kevin Harvick is the most sensible anchor play among the favorites. Harvick will be starting from the 10th position and if we follow the trends on the big tracks this year; he should be among the fastest cars in the field. It is also worth mentioning that the highest priced driver in the field is Christopher Bell at $11,500. Though Bell is not a race “favorite”, his 35th starting position provides plenty of fantasy potential especially on the heels of strong performances (in terms of speed) at Pocono. Even if Bell does not lead any laps, a mere top 10 could produce at least 60 fantasy points which is the reason his price is listed so high.

If you are looking for the value plays this week, I believe Ryan Preece, Cole Custer, and Michael McDowell are all solid options. All drivers are listed under $6,500 and should move up from their starting positions. I personally believe Preece has the most upside. However, McDowell has been pretty solid at Indianapolis in his career and will likely have lower ownership! Guys like Clint Bowyer ($9,000), Erik Jones ($8,300), and even Aric Almirola ($7,400) are all value options. Almirola is the most risky play in that group due to the fact he is starting from the 5th position. However, he is also a sharp play when most will stay away. Meanwhile, Bowyer and Jones are two of my favorite mid-range fantasy plays. Both drivers displayed promising speed at Pocono and have shown serious skills at Indianapolis in recent races at the Brickyard!

Draftkings Brickyard 400 Optimal Lineup

2020 Brickyard 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Joey Logano +850 (1 unit) *Click here for odds
Chase Elliott +1400 (1 unit)
Erik Jones +2750 (.5 unit) *early play
Clint Bowyer +2750 (.5 unit) *early play
Aric Almirola +3500 (.5 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlay

Kevin Harvick +400 wins Brickyard 400
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +135 over Ryan Newman
Risking 1 unit to win: +1075

H2H Match-Ups and Props

William Byron -115 over Matt DiBenedetto (2 units) *early play
Aric Almirola -130 over Kurt Busch (2 units)
Clint Bowyer +500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Christopher Bell +1300 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)