In terms of betting, last weekend’s races at Pocono were rather forgetful. A pair of 2nd place finishes in both the Truck and Xfinity Series races marked by some bad luck in H2Hs in Sunday’s Pocono 350 proved costly. Despite hitting a parlay winner in Sunday’s Cup Series race, we still dropped about 4 units on the weekend to bring our YTD profit to nearly 20 units. Obviously this has been a tough stretch of races but I am confident the wins are coming. To only hit one race winner in 4 races is obviously disappointing but strong H2H bets throughout the weekend helped sustain minimal losses which is a good sign that at least the majority of the bets were sharp. This week our betting focus turns to Indianapolis Motor Speedway for two betting opportunities on Saturday and Sunday. On Sunday, the Cup Series will wave the green flag for the infamous Brickyard 400 which goes by the new sponsor name titled the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 at the Brickyard. Before we dive into Sunday’s race, I wanted to take a few moments to shed some light on the Xfinity Series that will get the luxury of debuting on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course for the first time on Saturday.
About 3 years ago, Charlotte Motor Speedway shook up the NASCAR world by announcing the creation of the ROVAL course at Charlotte. Once the ROVAL debuted at Charlotte in 2018, it proved to be a success with great racing and a chaotic last lap that featured Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex wrecking on the last lap yielding Ryan Blaney the winner. Charlotte’s move to create the ROVAL course was bigger than just a random anomaly. The move came at a time when fans, drivers, and promoters voiced displeasure towards running so many similar 1.5 mile races that dominate the Cup Series schedule. Not only did the ROVAL prove successful but it ensured that Charlotte would retain the multiple dates on the NASCAR schedule with two points paying races and remain home of the annual All-Star Race.
This week Indianapolis Motor Speedway will become the 2nd traditional speedway to experiment with their own version of a road course. Though Sunday’s Cup Series event will remain on the legendary 2.5 mile surface at the Brickyard, Saturday’s Xfinity Series will be featured on the new 14-turn 2.439 mile road course at Indianapolis. If successful, the hope is that this new road course at Indianapolis could also be featured in the Chase during the Cup Series stretch of playoff races. Obviously, the possibility and need for another road course in the Chase will be highly debated and discussed in the coming weeks. Before that debate heats up, we first must learn if this new road course will be successful and perhaps wait to see how the racing unfolds this Saturday before making any speculation towards the future of Indianapolis.
Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course Layout
Since we do not have any data on this new road course, I wanted to take a few moments to describe the new layout and how we should approach this weekend’s Pennzoil 150 at the Brickyard. For starters, the road course (pictured above) will utilize the majority of the front stretch and the same brick start/finish line used on the traditional course. The kicker will be the road course will feature cars competing in a clockwise motion going the opposite direction down the frontstretch. After cars travel down the frontstretch, they will come to a heavy braking zone entering a 90 degree right turn in turn 1 before quickly turning into a sharp left hand turn (2) to bring the cars back parallel with the frontstretch.
The sharp 90 degree opening turn will provide a critical passing zone shortly after the start/finish line. However, if cars are unable to complete passes on the inside of turn 1, they will quickly find themselves on the outside of turn 2 but will be in optimal position going into turns 4-6 which are predominantly right turns with a chicane (turn 5-6) before entering the backstretch. Obviously, positioning and protecting the bottom (right) through these corners will be very important for maintaining track position. After cars come out of the chicane, there will be a ⅓ mile backstretch before cars enter a sharp 80 degree left hand turn (7) which is followed by an inverted S-shaped stretch from turns 8 through 10. The only real passing zone at this stretch of the track will be entering turn 7 as this corner will feature another braking zone and sharp left hander for drivers to set up passing attempts.
After cars exit turn 10, turn 11 will feature a sweeping right hand turn that uses the traditional oval banking between turns 1-2 (oval). Through this area of the track, it is expected that things will be relatively calm. After the sweeping turn 11, the two final passing opportunities will come in turns 12 and 13 which features a sharp 90 degree right hand turn followed by a big turn back to the left through the slowest part of the track in turn 13. Both turns 12-13 will again be heavy braking zones and the last passing opportunities before cars enter a lazy right hand final turn (14) before heading back towards the start/finish line.
Handicapping Indianapolis Road Course
When I break down this new road course layout at the Brickyard, it really reminds me of Watkins Glen. The long front stretch and sharp 90 degree right hander in turn 1 nearly mirror the opening corners at the Glen. The “Inner-Loop” at the Glen will be very similar to the chicane in turns 5-6. In fact, I expect turns 5-6 to be less problematic than the “Inner-Loop” because Xfinity Series cars will be much slower at the exit of turn 4 meaning this part of the track should not be nearly as difficult compared to Watkins Glen. The biggest difference for the Indianapolis road course this week is the number of sharp left hand turns. Turns 2, 7, and 13 are all 90 degree or greater turn angles. Turns 7 and 13 could easily be the two most critical points of the track for passing. The balance between turns angles between right hand and left hand turns means that setups will need to be extremely balanced unlike Watkins Glen or Sonoma which is predominantly biased to right-hand setups.
The good news for bettors is that because this is a completely new layout, Xfinity Series teams will get two practice opportunities on Friday to prepare for Saturday’s 62 lap event. Practice observations will likely play heavily into our betting targets this week. However, we should expect that Austin Cindric and AJ Allmendinger will likely be the two biggest favorites on Saturday. Allmendinger will be making his 5th start of the season with Kaulig Racing and won in his 2nd start at Atlanta. Allmendinger has an excellent open wheel/road course background which will likely garner some betting attention this week especially considering he won the ROVAL race in 2019 which was the last road course test among Xfinity Series competition.
However, I firmly believe that Austin Cindric is the best driver in the field for this type of racing. Justin Allgaier, Allmendinger, and Chase Briscoe will likely also be favorites once odds are released. Drivers to keep on your radar from a value standpoint that have shown some upside at road course venues include Noah Gragson and Jeremy Clements. Both drivers could yield some H2H value. Obviously we will wait to see opening odds and then re-evaluate our betting targets following practices to ensure we are placing the best bets for Saturday. Be sure to check back later this week for the full preview and race picks for the Pennzoil 150 at the Brickyard!
