2025 Weather Guard Truck Race Picks

Date/Time: Friday April 11th, 2025. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s touring series will return to Thunder Valley this weekend for short-track racing at Bristol Motor Speedway. The action begins on Friday with the Craftsman Truck Series and the running of the Weather Guard Truck Race. Last week, Daniel Hemric became just the 2nd full-time Truck Series driver to win this season following a victory at Martinsville. So far this season, Corey Heim and part-time Cup Series drivers (Kyle Busch/Kyle Larson) have won 4 of the 5 races to start the season. Late Friday, Kyle Larson will make another Truck Series start following his victory at Homestead just two weeks ago. While Larson and Heim are the major betting favorites going into Friday, bettors will have more betting options that need to be considered!

In many ways, Hemric’s win last week at Martinsville was the first time this season that the Truck Series has produced a winner that was not among the betting favorites. In some ways, short tracks provide those upset opportunities because these races are more about taking advantage of restarts and late cautions as opposed to races that typically end under normal racing circumstances. As we approach Friday’s Weather Guard Truck Race, one thing that I noticed is that Bristol has produced 12 different winners in the last 12 races. The other main item that I noticed is that there are 3 former winners at Bristol that will be competing on Friday and that does not include Cup Series star Kyle Larson! Furthermore as I examine the entry list, I can quickly realize that the Craftsman Truck Series has an abundance of drivers with short track skills. Needless to say, bettors should realize that while there are some heavy hitters in Friday’s field and big betting favorites, I think we have many more drivers worth of betting consideration at the bare minimum.

Betting Strategy

Despite suffering terrible luck in recent weeks, I am determined to get things turned around this week at Bristol. While Kyle Larson deserves to be the betting favorite due to the fact he is the best driver in the sport and has been really good at Bristol, I am not sure that he deserves to be the -165 sized betting favorite that is currently listed. For starters, it’s harder to dominate in the Truck Series which is something that was evident in Larson’s last appearance at Homestead. Luckily, Larson is such a heavy favorite that we are receiving relatively generous odds on the rest of the field. For that reason, there is enough ROI to warrant considerable betting action for some of Larson’s biggest competitors. As a result, we will be fairly aggressive in futures and potentially in H2H formats.

Bristol – Truck Series Notes

• Ty Majeski (2022), Corey Heim (2023), and Layne Riggs (2024) are all former CTS winners at Bristol.
• Corey Heim has produced a stout 115.0 average driver rating over the last 3 races at Bristol.
• Kyle Larson has never competed in a Truck Series race at Bristol.
• Layne Riggs dominated last year’s race at Bristol by leading 80 laps and posting a 132.0 driver rating.
• Rajah Caruth has finished 6th, 8th, and 3rd in the last 3 races at Bristol.
• Matt Crafton has finished 7th or better in 4 of the last 5 races at Bristol.
• Grant Enfinger has finished 6th or better in 6 of 9 career starts at Bristol.
• Brandon Jones (Xfinity) has just 1 career win in 50 career Truck Series starts. Jones has 1 top 5 finish in 5 career starts at Bristol.
• Toyota drivers have won 3 of the last 5 races at Bristol.
• There have been 6 or less cautions in 5 of the last 6 races at Bristol.
• The eventual race winner has started from the pole in 3 of the last 9 races at Bristol.

Betting Targets

While I would love some extra confidence from practice on Friday, I believe both Corey Heim and Daniel Hemric are worthy of immediate betting consideration. Heim has been the best in the Truck Series this year and had Larson beat straight-up at Homestead before electrical issues led to his demise. Heim has been really strong at Bristol which makes his +550 odds look very tasty as a top two betting favorite that could have arguments for the outright betting favorite. Meanwhile, Hemric is coming off a confidence building win at Martinsville and is behind the wheel of the #19 truck that has been very strong in recent races at Bristol with former driver Christian Eckes. Not to mention, Hemric has been very solid at Bristol throughout his career which makes him a complete steal at 20-1 odds and an ideal target in H2H formats as well!

As we move deeper into the field, I can’t help but notice relatively generous odds for the likes of Grant Enfinger, Brandon Jones, and Rajah Caruth who all are capable of stealing a victory on Friday given the right circumstances. Personally, I think Caruth is the driver that is hitting on the most handicapping angles to warrant betting consideration. However, all 3 of those drivers can be considered in both H2H and fantasy formats. Meanwhile deeper into the field, Matt Crafton and Gio Ruggiero are a duo of drivers that have much higher upside than current betting odds suggest. Crafton has been really good at Bristol with top 10 finishes in 14 of his last 16 career starts which makes his +10000 odds salivating in all formats. For Gio Ruggiero, he is a much less confident play but has shown strong short track skills and competes in top-tier equipment which yields prop bet (low risk/high-yield) betting consideration.

Draftkings Weather Guard Truck Race Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Weather Guard Betting Picks

*More picks may be added closer to race time. Continue to check back until “FINAL” status is displayed* Corey Heim +550 (1 unit)
Layne Riggs +1000 (.5 unit)
Daniel Hemric +2000 (.5 unit)
Rajah Caruth +2800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Daniel Hemric -120 over Tyler Ankrum (2 units)
Corey Heim -125 over Layne Riggs (2 units)
Grant Enfinger -110 over Brandon Jones (2 units)
Rajah Caruth +300 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Matt Crafton +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)