2025 Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday April 5th, 2025. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: CW

NASCAR’s throwback weekend will officially begin on Saturday as the Xfinity Series returns to The Lady in Black, at Darlington Raceway, for the running of the Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200. The entry list for Saturday’s return to Darlington is stacked with Cup Series talent which includes the likes of Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, and Chase Elliott who will be piloting top tier rides with Joe Gibbs Racing, J.R. Motorsports, and Hendrick Motorsports. Needless to say, the Cup Series drivers will enter the weekend as justifiable heavy betting favorites to earn the first checkered flag of the weekend at Darlington!

As I am sure everyone is aware, Darlington Raceway is known for its high-level difficulty. The racing surface is extremely narrow and the racing surface is extremely aged which yields some of the lowest grip levels in the sport. Drivers will be faced with the challenge of trying to make lap times under very loose racing conditions while in tight quarters with the competition. On top of those challenges, tire wear will also be very important throughout the weekend in both races for teams and drivers. The ability to save tires and keep long-run speed will be just as important as executing the best tire strategy on pit road.

Due to the difficult racing conditions, Darlington Raceway has a long history of producing prestigious winners that have the luxury of saying they tamed the track that is considered “Too Tough To Tame.” In Xfinity Series competition specifically, the last 8 of 10 drivers to win at Darlington are currently on a Cup Series full-time roster. The only winners that are not in the Cup Series stem from veteran Xfinity Series’ drivers Justin Allgaier and Brandon Jones who are very experienced talents. Needless to say, the Cup Series talents that will be competing on Saturday are rightful heavy betting favorites because the top drivers typically shine at Darlington. With that being said, we will still explore all betting options this weekend to determine the drivers that provide the best path to a profitable betting card!

Betting Strategy

Since betting odds are very saturated among the betting favorites, I will likely limit our overall risk in futures formats because there simply is not a lot of value. Christopher Bell is listed as a huge favorite at less than 2-1 odds following a dominating victory in last year’s Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200. To be fair, Bell is the likely candidate to repeat this weekend. However the 4-5 drivers with the highest likelihood of upsetting Bell’s chances for a repeat are also listed at very conservative betting odds which limits our betting value. Furthermore, I believe betting odds have been appropriately priced this week which raises the level of difficulty towards identifying sharp value. In fact, I fully expect the bulk of our sharp value to come from H2H match-ups and props this week which is typical for betting at Darlington!

Darlington – Xfinity Series Notes

Justin Allgaier leads all active drivers with 3 career wins at Darlington.
Chase Elliott, Brandon Jones, and Christopher Bell are also former winners at Darlington.
Since winning as a rookie in Xfinity Series competition at Darlington in 2014, Chase Elliott’s best finish is 4th (2024) in 3 additional starts at Darlington.
Justin Allgaier has 3 wins and 5 top 5 finishes in the last 8 starts at Darlington.
Austin Hill has finished in the top 10 in all 7 career starts at Darlington. Hill has also finished runner-up in 2 of the last 3 races at Darlington.
Jesse Love finished 6th and 8th in last year’s two races at Darlington as a rookie.
Ross Chastain has just two top 10 finishes in the last 9 starts at Darlington.
Brandon Jones has finished outside the top 10 in 6 of the last 7 starts at Darlington.
Ryan Sieg has finished outside the top 10 in 13 of 16 career starts at Darlington.
Chevrolet teams have won 6 of the last 8 races at Darlington.
The eventual race winner has started in the top 8 qualifying positions in 7 straight races at Darlington.

Betting Targets

I am hesitant to pull the trigger on many of the betting favorites prior to Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions simply because betting odds are pretty ugly. With that being said, Christopher Bell can likely be locked into parlay opportunities if you choose to go that route. Bell’s odds could get better after qualifying but I doubt it will be enough to make a difference in singles wagers. Bell dominated this race last year with Chase Elliott and others in the field and appears to be best suited to repeat that performance. Neither Elliott or Chastain, the two other big names, have shown enough dominance to guarantee betting action. Chastain has routinely been in subpar equipment throughout his career but I’m still not exactly confident he will be among the 2-3 drivers to beat on Saturday either.

If you can stomach avoiding Elliott and Chastain, I personally believe Justin Allgaier and Sam Mayer have the best opportunities to be spoilers on Saturday. Allgaier is a 3-time winner at Darlington and the #7 team has been producing the best speed in the series for the last several weeks. Meanwhile, Sam Mayer is one of my sharp picks on Saturday that should yield strong value in all formats. Mayer has been really good this year but is flying under the radar. More importantly, Mayer has shown strong skills at low-grip venues like Homestead and Darlington in previous outings. In fact, Mayer was the only driver to pass Christopher Bell in green-flag conditions during last year’s Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 however Mayer cut down a tire shortly after that pass while leading and never recovered. Going into the weekend, Mayer has posted 3 straight top 5 finishes including a runner-up finish at Homestead. As a result, Mayer is one of my favorite H2H and dark horse options for the entire weekend.

For additional H2H, fantasy, and prop bet options, I am following the likes of Jesse Love, Connor Zilisch, and Harrison Burton as potential betting targets. Love and Zilisch are top-tier talents that are being somewhat disrespected by odds makers. Zilisch showed a lot of speed at Homestead despite his limited experience and I believe he could surprise competitors again on Saturday. Love is in a similar boat following strong performances in both races at Darlington in 2024 as a rookie and should simply outperform his current betting odds. Meanwhile, Harrison Burton has been showing solid speed with AM Racing this season and keeps getting very generous odds in prop bet formats. Burton is one of those drivers that typically produces long-run speed and I believe is worthy of top 10 style prop bets yet again this week!

Draftkings Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 Betting Picks

*FINAL* Justin Allgaier +750 (.75 unit)
Sam Mayer +1000 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Sam Mayer -115 over Sheldon Creed (3 units)
Jesse Love -115 over Sammy Smith (3 units)
Brandon Jones -115 over Ryan Sieg (2 units)
Austin Hill +250 wins Group C (Creed, Zilisch, Jones)(1 unit)
Harrison Burton +350 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)