2025 Sciaps 300 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday April 12th, 2025. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
TV: CW

Last week, Brandon Jones became the 6th different winner this season in the Xfinity Series and the 5th full-time driver that has already clinched a playoff spot. On Saturday, the Xfinity Series will take center stage at Bristol Motor Speedway for the running of the Sciaps 300. For bettors, Bristol has been somewhat unpredictable in the Xfinity Series. In fact, the Xfinity Series has produced 12 different winners in the last 13 races in Thunder Valley. Therefore, we must consider numerous drivers for the victory despite the heavy favorite status of superstar Kyle Larson who will make his 2nd start of the season!

Before we begin our discussion for handicapping the Sciaps 300, I think it is worth reminding bettors of how things unfolded in the last short track race, in the Xfinity Series, at Martinsville just two weeks ago. In that race, there were numerous wrecks which ultimately led to an embarrassing finish where Sammy Smith took out leader Taylor Gray on the last lap. The last lap wreck and volatility throughout the entire race absolutely destroyed our betting card. While Martinsville is normally a solid handicapping track much like Bristol, our betting picks may need to be somewhat conservative in-case the racing turns volatile yet again.

With that being said, Kyle Larson returns to the Xfinity Series following a dominant performance at Homestead just a few weeks ago. Despite nearly lapping the field, Larson was overtaken during an overtime finish thanks to a late caution. Despite those previous results, Larson will suit up for his 10th career start at Bristol in Xfinity Series competition. In 9 previous starts, Larson has 1 victory and finished 3rd or better in 5 other instances. While I faded Larson in Truck Series competition Friday night, I am not sure that would be advisable for tomorrow’s Sciaps 300. We may have to find some ways to bring exposure to Larson in our lineups while still seeking better value options in-case we have yet another chaotic or unexpected finish!

Betting Strategy

While I do want some exposure to Kyle Larson, I am willing to wait until after practice and qualifying on Saturday in hopes of better odds. Currently, Larson is listed at -150 which seems extreme for a place like Bristol where small mistakes can be costly and where track position is so important. With that being said, even if Larson’s odds improve he will likely only be a candidate for inclusion in a parlay or potentially in H2H match-ups. Fortunately due to Larson’s heavy favorite status, we can take some early gambles on drivers that are receiving relatively generous odds to bring some strong ROI to our betting card. Additionally, we should be able to find some sharper value in H2H match-ups if we handicap things appropriately.

Bristol – Xfinity Series Notes

• Kyle Larson (2018) and Justin Allgaier (2023) are the only former winners at Bristol.
• Kyle Larson has finished 3rd or better in 6 of 9 career starts at Bristol.
• Despite just 1 win at Bristol in 24 career starts, Justin Allgaier has finished top 5 in 3 of the last 5 races which also includes 5 stage wins.
• Jesse Love finished 4th in his only career start at Bristol last year.
• Brandon Jones have averaged a strong 100.5 average driver rating over the last 7 races at Bristol.
• Sheldon Creed posted a 122.5 average driving rating which resulted in a runner-up finish in last year’s race at Bristol.
• Ryan Sieg has finished top 10 in the last 3 races at Bristol.
• Jeremy Clements has finished 13th or better in 7 of the last 9 races at Bristol.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 6 of the last 9 races at Bristol.
• There have been 7 or more cautions in 5 of the last 6 races at Bristol.
• The eventual race winner has started from row 5 (9th place/10 place) in 6 of the last 7 races at Bristol.

Betting Targets

From a handicapping perspective, Kyle Larson and Justin Allgaier have relatively high winning percentages going into Saturday. Larson is currently a massive favorite but Allgaier has enough value to warrant immediate betting consideration. Allgaier’s odds could get better if he qualifies poorly on Saturday but he has qualified in the top 10 in 21 straight starts at Bristol. Personally, I lean towards using both Larson and Allgaier in parlay formats because I think it creates the best ROI for the weekend. However, I think Allgaier is the only driver among the “favorites” that we can pull the trigger on right away!

Behind the top two favorites, things get really difficult from a handicapping perspective. Surprisingly, Brandon Jones is hitting all the right handicapping indicators. Jones won last week at Darlington and has been extremely solid at Bristol throughout his career. To be fair, I rarely bet on Jones because he often underperforms and he has never won back to back races in his career. However, I must admit that a lot of handicapping angles are pointing in Jones’ favor. Behind Jones, Jesse Love and Connor Zilisch are among the drivers that I believe have legitimate dark horse upside. Love was really good in this race last year and Zilisch is a driver that I am expecting to perform well based on a variety of factors. Both of these drivers have solid H2H appeal as well.

I will wait until Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions before I make any additional bold predictions. I would like to see some lap times before I add any other thoughts. With that being said, Ryan Sieg, Jeremly Clements, and Harrison Burton are some lower-tier drivers that should outrun their current betting odds. All 3 drivers should have fantasy appeal as long as they do not qualify too well. More importantly, I will be keeping an eye on those names for potential prop bets that should provide low-risk/high-reward opportunities.

Draftkings 2025 Sciaps 300 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Sciaps 300 Betting Picks

*More picks may be added closer to race time. Continue to check back until “FINAL” status is displayed*

Brandon Jones +1200 (.75 unit)
Jesse Love +2000 (.5 unit)
Connor Zilisch +2200 (.5 unit)
Sam Mayer +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Connor Zilisch -110 over Austin Hill (3 units)
Brandon Jones -105 over Sam Mayer (2 units)