2025 Marine Corps 250 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday March 29th, 2025. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Martinsville Speedway
TV: CW

Last week, Justin Allgaier capitalized on a late race restart to steal a victory from Kyle Larson in the Hard Rock Bet 300 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. With the victory, the reigning Xfinity Series Champion has won back to back races at Las Vegas and Homestead to become the first two-time winner this season. On Saturday, Allgaier will attempt to go for a rare 3-peat when the green flag waves for the Marine Corps 250 at Martinsville Speedway. However, Allgaier’s biggest obstacle towards the prestigious 3-peat may come from within the organization because rookie teammates Connor Zilisch and Carson Kvapil swept the front row in qualifying for J.R. Motorsports!

Prior to Friday’s on-track activities, Aric Almirola was the guy getting the most attention ahead of Saturday’s Marine Corps 250. After all, Almirola swept both Martinsville races last season and entered the weekend as the heavy betting favorite. However, Almirola did not look as dominant in Friday’s practice and qualifying sessions. In fact, the J.R. Motorsports drivers appeared to be the ones gaining momentum going into Saturday following strong speed in Friday’s session. All 4 of the J.R. Motorsports cars qualified in the top 10 positions and appear to be trending in a positive direction.

While we will discuss the drivers that appeared strong during Friday’s sessions, it is important to remember that long-run speed will be most important on Saturday. It’s often hard to identify the drivers that have long-run speed in practice because drivers normally max out at around 25-30 laps. Through both races on Saturday and Sunday, we could see green flag runs extending 100 laps or more. Therefore, it is important that we handicap and identify drivers that traditionally excel in long-run formats to ensure we are not letting practice/qualifying sessions influence us to make the wrong betting selections. Needless to say, we have plenty of things to consider in the overall handicapping equation in order to set a strong lineup for Saturday!

Betting Strategy

As I mentioned in the Truck Series race on Friday, betting odds have been downright ugly in futures (win) formats. Odds makers have been very conservative with betting odds this week and the “favorites” have received saturated numbers. For that reason, I have stressed that we must refrain from throwing away unnecessary units of risk in futures formats because the ROI simply does not make a lot of sense. However, I have been pretty aggressive thus far with H2H match-ups simply because there have been various match-ups offered and we have been able to find sharp value in match-up formats. If that continues on Saturday, I would expect the bulk of our betting card to be centered around H2H match-ups!

Martinsville – Xfinity Series Notes

Aric Almirola leads all active drivers with two career wins at Martinsville. *Note: Both of Almirola’s wins were during the 2024 season.
Harrison Burton (2020), Brandon Jones (2022), and Justin Allgaier (2023) are also former winners at Martinsville.
Justin Allgaier, Sheldon Creed, and Sammy Smith averaged +100 driver ratings in both Martinsville races last season.
Carson Kvapil (starting 2nd) finished 4th in his only start at Martinsville last year.
Sammy Smith has finished 3rd or better in 3 of the last 4 races at Martinsville.
Nick Sanchez finished 7th in his only start at Martinsville last year.
Justin Allgaier has finished 6th or better in 5 straight races at Martinsville.
Toyota drivers have won 5 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.
There have been at least 10 cautions in 10 straight races at Martinsville.

Practice Observations

Before Zilisch and Kvapil stole the spotlight in qualifying, Austin Hill was the driver that was trending to be the storyline on Friday. Hill qualified 3rd but he was super fast during practice. In fact, Hill led all drivers in the fastest 5, 10, and 15 lap categories. Behind Hill, Sammy Smith, Justin Allgaier, and Sheldon Creed were among the other drivers that were posting very similar lap times. Smith and Allgaier had very strong long-run times in the 25 and 30 lap categories which is a promising sign going into Saturday. On the other side of the equation, Aric Almirola was further down the speed charts than most would have expected. Likewise, I would mention names like Jesse Love, Ryan Sieg, and Harrison Burton as other notable names that did not show a lot of speed when examining overall lap times. With those things being said, keep in mind that practice observations are only a small part of the handicapping equation at Martinsville!

Betting Targets

Prior to Friday’s on-track activities, I really wanted to take Sammy Smith but his opening betting odds were downright disgusting. Luckily, Smith was the worst qualifier (10th) from J.R Motorsports and his betting odds have improved. I say luckily because I still believe Smith should be a top betting target. Behind Aric Almirola, he has been the best driver in the Xfinity Series at Martinsville for the last two years. Therefore, I believe Smith can be targeted in all formats. Personally, I think arguments can be made for all of the J.R. Motorsports drivers as they have all shown solid speed. Allgaier has been the fastest car on a weekly basis in the Xfinity Series and is also deserving of being an outright betting favorite with Almirola.

As things currently stand, betting odds have 6 different drivers listed at 8-1 odds or less which is simply outrageous. Therefore I stand by the statement that bettors should target H2H match-ups for the most value. For H2H specific targets, I favor the likes of Sammy Smith, Sheldon Creed, and Nicholas Sanchez as drivers that have a high likelihood of outperforming their suggested betting odds. I mentioned Smith above as top tier Martinsville talent. Sheldon Creed has also been really solid at Martinsville throughout his career and is receiving extra value due to a poor qualifying effort on Friday. Meanwhile, Nick Sanchez has performed solid for a mid-tier rookie this season and finished 7th in his only start at Martinsville last season. Needless to say, these drivers should yield H2H value specifically while names like Myatt Snider and Jeb Burton are additional names that can be considered strictly in fantasy formats!

Draftkings Marine Corps 250 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Marine Corps 250 Betting Picks

*More picks may be added closer to race time. Continue to check back until “FINAL” status is displayed* Sammy Smith +900 (1 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1600 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Sammy Smith -125 over Sam Mayer (3 units)
Austin Hill +175 wins Group B (Love, Gray, Eckes)(2 units) *Bovada
Harrison Burton +225 finishes Top 10 (1 unit) *Bovada
Nick Sanchez +350 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit) *Bovada