2025 Hard Rock Bet 300 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday March 22nd, 2025. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway
TV: CW

Earlier tonight, the Craftsman Truck Series delivered one of the best races of the season at Homestead-Miami Speedway. In the end, Kyle Larson was able to get around Corey Heim and Layne Riggs for the victory thanks largely to the fact that Heim suffered electrical issues in the closing laps. Either way, Larson has scored the first victory of the weekend at Homestead and is the only driver that is scheduled to compete in all 3 races throughout the weekend. Needless to say, Larson’s quests for a weekend sweep is still intact and he will be the heavy favorite once again on Saturday’s when the Xfinity Series drops the green flag for the Hard Rock Bet 300.

As everyone witnessed during Friday’s Baptist Health 200, Homestead-Miami Speedway is one of the most exciting tracks on the NASCAR circuit. The 1.5 mile speedway has a rugged surface that yields minimal grip and produces tremendous tire wear. The low-grip conditions means that drivers are consistently getting sideways throughout the corners and searching for grip with every circuit. Additionally, the tire wear component produces an intriguing dialogue of short-run speed vs. long-run speed that is fun to watch. For those reasons, I believe we will continue to see great racing throughout the next two days between the Xfinity and Cup Series.

From a handicapping perspective, Homestead-Miami Speedway’s surface conditions creates a difficult challenge for drivers but that is exactly why we typically see the most talented wheelmen in each race emerge at the front of the field. By rule of thumb, tracks like Homestead, Darlington, Richmond, and others with these unique conditions rarely produce upset or surprise winners. In fact, if bettors review the history of winners at each of those tracks you will routinely see a list of the most talented names in the sport. Unfortunately, these difficult tracks rarely produce betting value in the futures (win) formats because the top talents are so heavily favored. However, bettors can still turn profits in these races with proper betting strategy and a keen eye towards identifying H2H targets which often yield sharp value.

Betting Strategy

In Friday’s truck race, I urged bettors to chase betting value against Kyle Larson because I did not believe that Larson’s betting odds were justified at the heavily juiced price. In reality, it was the right betting strategy because Heim was the best truck of the night and should have won the race. More importantly, I made that call on the betting strategy because it is more difficult for talent to shine through Truck Series competition simply based on the way trucks have to be driven. For the Xfinity Series cars on Saturday, I don’t believe that will be the case.

The Xfinity Series cars are perfect for highlighting talent because the cars can be driven on the loose side which is needed at low-grip venues. These conditions heavily play into the hand of a talent like Larson and I believe he will outclass the field in a much bigger way on Saturday. As a result, I don’t think we should risk too many wager units on “value” because I fully expect Larson to win this race. We will still want to have some low-risk options in-case Larson has trouble but from a strategy perspective; I would have much higher exposure to Larson in Saturday’s race based on the car type and the likelihood he could drive away from the field. Therefore, my focus will be geared towards H2H and prop bet formats as I believe that will yield the best opportunity to profit in the Hard Rock Bet 300.

Homestead – Xfinity Series Quick Notes

Kyle Larson (2015), Harrison Burton (2020), Sam Mayer (2023), and Austin Hill (2024) are former winners at Homestead.
Austin Hill has averaged a 119.0 driver rating through 3 career starts at Homestead, the best among active drivers.
Sam Mayer has finished 5th, 1st, and 9th in 3 career starts at Homestead.
Justin Allgaier has never finished in the top 5 in 16 career starts at Homestead.
Brandon Jones has finished 8th or better in 6 of the last 8 races at Homestead.
Jesse Love finished 4th in his only career start at Homestead in 2024.
There have been just 13 cautions combined over the last 3 races at Homestead.
Chevrolet drivers have won the last 4 races at Homestead.

Betting Targets

As I alluded to above, I believe Kyle Larson could run away with Saturday’s race if he is given a decent ride which should be the case for the #17 for Hendrick Motorsports. In this type of car, I just don’t see many competitors beating Larson unless they have trouble or unload a bad product. If that happens, Austin Hill and Jesse Love are the two drivers that I believe have the highest upside. Hill has been really good at Homestead throughout his career and is really strong on the bottom side of the racetrack. If we get some short runs or late race restarts, Hill’s chances will only get better. Based on current betting odds, I find it relatively hard to leave Hill or Love off of betting cards based on the speed both cars have shown this year and their solid resumes thus far through their careers at Homestead.

Since the Xfinity Series is stacked with talent, I’m sure there will likely be a couple of surprise contenders at some point on Saturday but I am waiting until practices to decide if anyone else is worthy of betting consideration in futures (win) formats. If I had to guess, Sam Mayer and Sheldon Creed will be worth monitoring in practice for potential dark horse consideration. For H2H targets, Hill and Love are obviously in play as described above. Outside of the Richard Childress Racing duo, I believe Brandon Jones and Corey Heim are a couple of drivers poised to outrun their current betting odds. Jones has actually performed well at Homestead consistently. Meanwhile, Heim’s talent and ceiling is getting somewhat disrespected from an odds perspective. Lastly, Harrison Burton, William Sawalich, and Nick Sanchez are among the drivers that are getting huge numbers that could yield value in prop bet formats that yield low-risk/high-reward.

Draftkings Hard Rock Bet 300 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Hard Rock Bet 300 Betting Picks

*FINAL* Sheldon Creed +800 (1 unit)
Austin Hill +800 (1 unit)
Jesse Love +1500 (.75 unit) *early pick

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Sheldon Creed -130 over Justin Allgaier (3 units)
Jesse Love -115 over Connor Zilisch (2 units) *early pick
Brandon Jones -115 over Ryan Sieg (2 units)
Harrison Burton +350 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)