2025 Goodyear 400 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday April 6th, 2025. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: FS1

Since 1950, NASCAR’s Cup Series has routinely visited The Lady in Black, known as Darlington Raceway. The fickle 1.336 mile track that sits in the heart of South Carolina has withstood the test of time and continues to produce some of the best racing in the world. On Sunday, the Cup Series will have the luxury of waving another green flag at Darlington for the running of the Goodyear 400 while also celebrating “throwback weekend” with retro paint schemes to honor the sport’s prestigious history. With anticipation building, we turn our focus towards handicapping Sunday’s return to Darlington in hopes to find the best betting targets to produce a profitable betting card!

As I am sure everyone is aware, Darlington Raceway is not only one of the oldest tracks in the sport but the actual surface is also one of the oldest in the sport. The racing surface at Darlington has not been repaved since 2008. The aged surface produces extreme tire wear that will cause lap times to fall off by 3 seconds or more over the course of green flag runs. More importantly, the minimal grip and narrow racing surface provides an extreme challenge for drivers to make speed while keeping the car out of the fence. For those reasons, Darlington will test every ounce of a driver’s skill set which makes a victory at the track labeled “Too Tough To Tame” one of the most prestigious checkered flags on the schedule.

Since the adoption of the Next Gen Car, Darlington has produced 6 different winners in 6 races. Before the Next Gen Car, 5 drivers won the previous 10 races at Darlington. I point out that fact because from a handicapping perspective we have always expected the best drivers at Darlington to contend for victories and while there are definitely strong performance correlations from a historical narrative; the Next Gen Car has produced 3 different first-time Darlington winners over the last 6 races. Therefore, I don’t want to get too tunnel focused on prior winners at Darlington and miss some other handicapping angles that could suggest another surprise winner!

Betting Strategy

Despite the recent string of surprise winners, the one thing that is consistent with Darlington is that this is a handicapping friendly track. The handicapping friendly narrative is mostly pertinent to H2H match-ups because bettors can use numerous handicapping angles to form high-confidence expectations. For that reason, we will likely be pretty aggressive in H2H match-ups this week as long as we find the sharp value that we expect. In futures (win) formats, we will be more sensitive towards betting value and betting odds. Unlike many of the last couple of races at Darlington, we can be more open to the idea of surprise winners due to the parity the Next Gen Car continues to yield. However in the realm of H2H match-ups and prop bets, we will increase our wager sizes with the increased confidence in our handicapping angles!

Darlington – Cup Series Notes

• Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 4 career wins at Darlington.
• Brad Keselowski (2), Erik Jones (2), Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Chase Briscoe, and William Byron are all former winners at Darlington.
• William Byron, Tyler Reddick, and Denny Hamlin are the only drivers to average a 100+ driver rating in all 6 races at Darlington in the Next Gen Car. *Kyle Larson just outside that category with a 99.5 average driver rating.
• Denny Hamlin has posted the most fastest laps at Darlington in 2 of the last 3 races.
• Defending Goodyear 400 winner Chase Briscoe is the only driver to finish in the top 5 in both Darlington races last year.
• Tyler Reddick has the best average finishing position (13.1) among active drivers without a win at Darlington.
• Ty Gibbs posted a 6th place average running position through both Darlington races in 2024.
• Brad Keselowski has finished 7th or better in 4 of the last 5 races at Darlington.
• Bubba Wallace has finished 9th or better in 4 of the last 5 races at Darlington.
• Justin Haley has finished in the Top 10 in 3 of the last 6 races at Darlington.
• Daniel Suarez has finished 18th or worse in 5 straight races at Darlington.
• The eventual race winner has started from the Top 5 starting position in 6 of the last 8 races at Darlington.

Practice Observations

Practice was split into two separate groups on Saturday which provides some bias results for onlookers that are just viewing posted speeds. The opening group of practice definitely had better track conditions in terms of speed which is why the top 5 fastest laps were all from the opening group. Carson Hocevar paced the field with the fastest lap overall at 168.054mph. Hocevar was followed by Josh Berry, Erik Jones, Austin Cindric, and Justin Haley. In the second group, William Byron was the fastest in single lap speed in the 6th position followed by the likes of Ty Gibbs, Ryan Preece, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney.

Obviously we are not worried about single lap speeds at a place like Darlington where long-run speed is vastly more important. With that being stated, William Byron, Josh Berry, Brad Keselowski, and Ryan Blaney were the drivers that appeared strong on the long-run. All 4 of those drivers had different moments in practice where they were the fastest car on the track under similar tire conditions. Meanwhile, Ryan Preece, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, and Kyle Busch were some other names that quickly started standing out as the laps clicked off. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, and Alex Bowman were among some of the big names that were struggling with consistent speed in practice that is worth noting.

Betting Targets

Based on current form, historical narratives, and observations throughout this weekend’s on-track sessions, I would vault William Byron and Denny Hamlin as the most likely favorites to visit victory lane on Sunday. Both drivers are former winners at Darlington, have shown terrific speed throughout the weekend, and appear to be producing some of the best speed in the series over the last few weeks. As a result, I have Byron and Hamlin listed as my favorite betting targets among the drivers in the “favorites” category.

With that being said, I’m not convinced tomorrow’s winner will come from the list of “favorites” because there are so many drivers that are within extremely close proximity who could emerge on Sunday with better long-run speed or potentially hit the strategy the right way. Among the drivers in the group of live dark horses, I would consider it a pretty long list from Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Bubba Wallace, Christopher Bell, Josh Berry, and Ross Chastain. I would say all of those drivers are hitting enough handicapping indicators to warrant dark horse consideration. Personally, my favorites in that group include Keselowski, Bell, and Chastain. The betting odds on those 3 drivers are very generous based on my various handicapping angles and I think those drivers offer considerable value in futures and H2H formats.

Meanwhile, Ty Gibbs, Carson Hocevar, Justin Haley, and Erik Jones are deep low-tier options that have much higher upside than current betting odds suggest. Jones is a two-time Darlington winner and is getting astronomical betting odds. Even if you don’t believe Jones can make it 3 wins at Darlington, his prop bet odds are very generous based on his history at The Lady in Black. As a result, those drivers are well within the target range in plus value formats.

Draftkings Goodyear 400 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Goodyear 400 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

William Byron +700 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +2200 (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +2200 (.5 unit)
Josh Berry +2500 (.5 unit)
Ross Chastain +2500 (.5 unit)
Ryan Preece +3000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Chris Buescher -130 over Alex Bowman (2 units)
Bubba Wallace -110 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Ryan Preece -115 over Austin Cindric (2 units)
Chase Briscoe +260 wins Group 3 (Elliott, Berry, Logano)(1 unit)
Erik Jones +450 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)