2025 Daytona 500 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday February 16th, 2025. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Daytona International Speedway
TV: FOX

Daytona Speedweeks will come to a close on Sunday with the 67th running of the Great American Race at Daytona International Speedway. The Daytona 500 is known as the Super Bowl of motorsports and Sunday’s main event will be another chapter in the prestigious history of NASCAR’s biggest race. For the first time in series history, a Toyota powered car will lead the field to the green flag following Chase Briscoe’s pole setting speed of 182.745mph. Over the offseason, Briscoe moved to the no. 19 team with Joe Gibbs Racing, following Martin Truex Jr’s retirement, and is among a fast group of Toyotas that are hoping to capture their first win at Daytona since the 2020 season.

As most are aware, there has been tons of preparation for Sunday’s Daytona 500. Not only have teams prepared all through the offseason, but Cup Series teams have participated in qualifying, duel races, and practice sessions each day since Wednesday. In an era where practice time is limited, this is the most preparation the Cup Series will have for any event this season. Earlier today, Brad Keselowski posted the fastest lap in final practice with a fast speed of 193.30mph. However, only slightly over half the cars participated in final practice as several drivers/teams sat out of final practice to ensure they did not damage the primary cars.

Needless to say, there has been an overwhelming amount of preparation for this year’s Daytona 500 and just 500 miles of superspeedway action stands in the way of crowning another champion of The Great American Race. With that being said, bettors must also realize that superspeedway racing remains highly volatile from a betting perspective. This is one of those events where you can make all the right picks and have all of your bets wiped out by one big accident on the track. Therefore we will look for the drivers that not only should contend for a victory on Sunday but also identify those drivers that are worthy of betting action based on the value in their betting odds!

Betting Strategy

The betting strategy for Sunday’s race remains similar to the prior two Daytona races this weekend where we will be minimizing overall risks and looking for the high-yield selections that keep our ROI in sufficient thresholds for this style of racing. Unlike the prior two races, we will also be looking for dark horses in futures and prop bet formats. These Cup Series cars are so similar in design and setups that we often see surprising names at the front of the field. While those names may not always find their way to victory lane, the Cup Series is ripe for prop bet action at these superspeedway races. All we can do is find those undervalued options and hope a little luck falls our way on Sunday!

Loop Data

From a handicapping standpoint, one of our best handicapping tools is looking at previous performance trends at the superspeedways to potentially identify the drivers that consistently put themselves in winning positions at these venues. While history does not always replicate itself, historical trends are somewhat reliable for establishing the talents that are typically racing at the front of the pack at the superspeedways. For those reasons, I encourage everyone to check out our dynamic averages which captures performance metrics for the last 5 superspeedway races in the Cup Series.

As you will notice in the metrics, Team Penske is ranked 1, 2, and 3 in our loop data trends dating back over the last 5 superspeedway races which is truly an impressive mark. While Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are well known as the best superspeedway talents in the sport, Austin Cindric has actually posted the best overall average. Cindric won the Daytona 500 as a rookie in 2022 and qualified on the outside of the front row which elevated his expectations for Sunday. Outside of Team Penske, Kyle Busch has also produced noteworthy metrics meanwhile names like Michael McDowell, Todd Gilliland, and Ross Chastain have all performed better than most would have expected. Therefore, those are just a few names that should be considered strictly from a superspeedway performance assessment.

Duel Races Observations

The Cup Series has officially held 3 practices throughout the week but I am mostly focused on performances during the duel races on Thursday because those races were the closest comparison to what we will see in Sunday’s Daytona 500. In Thursday’s duel races, I thought Ross Chastain and Chase Elliott were the class of the opening race despite the fact that Bubba Wallace won the race with help from teammate Tyler Reddick. Ty Dillon, Austin Dillon, and Ryan Preece were among some of the names that surprisingly ran upfront for extended periods of time as well. In the 2nd duel race, track position was decided more on strategy than it was green flag racing. With that being said, Austin Cindric (winner) and Joey Logano worked extremely well and proved Team Penske will be difficult to beat if they are able to work together. Meanwhile, drivers like Erik Jones, Chris Buescher, and Corey LaJoie were among some of the surprise stories that were at the front of the field throughout the closing laps.

Betting Targets

In terms of betting targets, I believe bettors can take solace in the fact that the Team Penske cars are all deserving of betting attention. Though Cindric’s betting odds have shrunk due to his 2nd place qualifying effort, he still remains one of the most valuable drivers at 20-1 odds. However, I believe having any of the Team Penske drivers would bring some confidence to every betting lineup. In reality, current betting odds are pretty favorable as everyone has 12-1 betting odds or better. With that being said, I still have the belief that the winner will come from the group of drivers that are outside of the 20-1 range and again we will place our bets towards high-yield selections.

The drivers that meet all of the handicapping angles and have sufficient betting value include names like Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, and Tyler Reddick who are excellent options in the 25-1 betting range. If you are looking for even deeper options, Austin Dillon, Erik Jones, and Ty Dillon have the superspeedway pedigrees and sufficient betting odds to warrant dark horse consideration. The younger Dillon is currently listed at 66-1 betting odds and has shown a ton of speed in each of his appearances this season at the Clash and during the duels on Thursday. Along with the younger Dillon, I would also include the likes of Jimmie Johnson and Corey LaJoie as legitimate options in prop bet formats that may yield value as well.

2025 Daytona 500 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2025 Daytona 500 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Ryan Blaney +1200 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +2500 (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +2500 (.5 units)
Ross Chastain +2500 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +2500 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +3000 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +4000 (.25 unit)
Ty Dillon +6600 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Josh Berry +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Corey LaJoie +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Jimmie Johnson +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Ty Dillon +360 wins Group F (Truex, Berry, Suarez)(.5 unit)(Caesars Sportsbook)
Corey LaJoie +360 wins Group F (Jones, Gragson, Custer)(.5 unit)(Caesars Sportsbook)