2025 Cook Out 400 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday March 30th, 2025. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Martinsville Speedway
TV: FOX

One week ago Kyle Larson became the 4th different winner in the Cup Series courtesy of his victory at Homestead-Miami Speedway in the Straight Talk Wireless 400. As a result, Larson joins the likes of William Byron, Christopher Bell, and Josh Berry who have already secured playoff berths. On Sunday, the Cup Series returns to the half-mile paperclip at Martinsville Speedway for the running of the Cook Out 400. As many are aware, Martinsville is an important venue because it is the last race in the Round of 8 which decides the final 4 drivers that will race for the championship. Needless to say, teams and drivers will be trying to learn as much as possible for not only this weekend but for when NASCAR returns for the playoffs in late October!

While Larson may have become the 4th different winner this season last week, Christopher Bell stands alone with 3 victories and remains the only driver with multiple wins this season. Bell won 3 races in a row at Atlanta, COTA, and Phoenix. Over the last two weeks, Bell and the rest of the Toyota teams struggled at the 1.5 mile venues of Las Vegas and Homestead. However, the Toyotas have returned to Martinsville once again with speed and once again Bell appears to be the driver to beat. On Saturday, Bell earned his first pole of the season and first pole at Martinsville with a fast lap of 96.034mph.

While Bell may have stolen the spotlight, the Hendrick Motorsports cars of Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, and Kyle Larson qualified in the top 4 positions as well. All 3 of those drivers are former winners at Martinsville and will be looking to score the 2nd straight win for Hendrick Motorsports. With that being said, we know that qualifying results are not necessarily correlated with race results. In fact, the last 5 race winners have all started outside the top 10 starting positions. Therefore, we will need to discuss a lot of different handicapping angles before having confidence in our betting selections for Sunday’s Cook Out 400. Therefore, let’s discuss some of the main handicapping items bettors should review prior to Sunday’s green flag!

Betting Strategy

Betting odds have been atrocious throughout all races this weekend at Martinsville. Each race has experienced numerous drivers receiving very low numbers among the betting favorites and that is the case once again for Sunday’s Cook Out 400. Prior to Saturday’s on-track activities, there were 7-8 drivers receiving 10-1 odds or less and not much has changed. For that reason, bettors are going to have to be very conservative in futures (win) formats because ROI is non-existent. As a result, I believe bettors should focus on H2H match-ups and potentially prop bets for the sharpest route to profits this week. Martinsville is one of those tracks that is handicapper friendly and usually that is beneficial for identifying value in H2H formats!

Martinsville – Cup Series Notes

• Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 5 career wins at Martinsville.
• Ryan Blaney (2), Kyle Busch (2), William Byron (2), Brad Keselowski (2), Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Christopher Bell, and Alex Bowman are all former winners at Martinsville.
• Ryan Blaney has the best average finishing position (8.3) among active drivers. Blaney also has the highest average driver rating (110.5) among drivers in the Next Gen Car at Martinsville.
• Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, and Chase Briscoe are the only other drivers to have a 100+ average driver rating at Martinsville in the Next Gen Car.
• Ryan Blaney has two wins in the last 3 races and top 5 finishes in 5 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.
• Joey Logano has finished 6th or better in 5 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.
• Kyle Larson has finished 3rd or better in 4 of the last 5 races at Martinsville.
• Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 5 in 4 of the last 5 races at Martinsville.
• Chase Briscoe has finished in the top 10 in 5 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.
• Bubba Wallace has finished 11th or better in 4 of the last 5 races at Martinsville.
• Tyler Reddick has finished 18th or worse in 6 of the last 7 races at Martinsville.
• Justin Haley has finished 28th or worse in all 8 career starts at Martinsville.
• There have been 6 cautions or less in 4 of the last 6 races at Martinsville
• The last 5 race winners have started outside the top 10 starting positions.

Practice Observations

I mentioned earlier that the Toyota teams flexed speed during Saturday’s on-track sessions. In particular, Bubba Wallace and Ty Gibbs were among the names that appeared sporty during practice. Wallace and Gibbs were the top two cars in the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 lap average categories which is usually a strong indicator towards potential race speed. With that being stated, I would like to mention that the lap times among the leaders were extremely close and to clarify I mean around 12-15 cars were within very close proximity of each other on lap times across every statistical category.

Towards the end of practice when the track had a decent amount of rubber, I thought the Hendrick Motorsports cars of Chase Elliott and William Byron were showing the most speed but again I would reiterate lap times were extremely close which means tomorrow’s race could be a game of track position more so than speed. Despite the fact practice speeds were very close in proximity, I would point out some of the outliers which includes solid speed from the likes of Cole Custer and Brad Keseloswki. Meanwhile, I would point out the likes of Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman, and Austin Cindric among the popular names that struggled on the stopwatch.

Betting Targets

Before the week began, I had planned to have Ryan Blaney in my line-up in some form or fashion. While I remain optimistic on Blaney due to his skill set and track history at Martinsville, he did not show enough speed in practice or put together the qualifying effort (starting 32nd) to constitute a play at 5-1 odds. Blaney simply has too many obstacles to overcome to justify betting wagers at his current number. Instead, I believe Chase Elliott and William Byron are the drivers that are hitting all the right handicapping indicators and have sufficient ROI to warrant betting consideration among the “favorites.”

Outside of the favorites, Chase Briscoe, Josh Berry, and Ryan Preece are among the drivers that I believe have the highest likelihood to outperform their suggested betting odds. Briscoe and Berry both have a unique skill set which is ideal for a track like Martinsville and are competing in top-tier equipment. Meanwhile, Ryan Preece is a driver that has rattled off two straight finishes of 9th or better. More importantly, Preece has been strong at Martinsville throughout his career likely stemming from his modified history. As a result, I believe Preece is a driver that can be targeted in H2H, fantasy, and prop bet formats!

Draftkings Cook Out 400 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Cook Out 400 Betting Picks

*More picks may be added closer to race time. Continue to check back until “FINAL” status is displayed* Chase Elliott +700 (1 unit)
William Byron +1000 (.75 unit)
Chase Briscoe +1800 (.75 unit)
Alex Bowman +1800 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Alex Bowman +120 over Ryan Preece (3 units)
Chase Elliott -140 over Joey Logano (3 units)
Josh Berry -110 over Ross Chastain (2 units)
Josh Berry +900 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)
Ryan Preece +1400 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +600 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)
Under 8.5 cautions +100 (2 units)