2025 Bennett Transportation & Logistics 250 Race Picks
Date/Time: Saturday February 22nd, 2025. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
TV: CW
Shortly after the Truck Series concludes with the running of the FR8 208, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will step into the spotlight for the latter half of Saturday’s double header with the running of the Bennett Transportation & Logistics 250 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Last week, Jesse Love scored the first win of the season for Richard Childress Racing. It was just Love’s 2nd win in his young Xfinity Series career and both victories were at superspeedways. Along with Austin Hill, the RCR teammates have combined to win 5 of the last 7 superspeedway races going back to last season. Needless to say, both Hill and Love are expected to be the guys to beat again on Saturday!
In the Truck Series preview, I spent time discussing the fact that Atlanta races differently than Daytona despite both tracks being listed in the superspeedway category. In reality, Atlanta has lost a lot of grip since the 2022 reconfiguration and repave. Instead of being essentially wide open at Daytona (excluding fuel saving measures), drivers may have to play with the throttle more on the aging surface of Atlanta and don’t be surprised if handling comes into play during the latter portion of green flag runs. From a racing perspective, this means that track position is going to be very important because passing will get more difficult as the laps lay down.
While this style of racing does not completely exclude potential surprise stories like the other superspeedway venues at Daytona and Talladega, I will say that upset winners in the Xfinity Series cars will be less likely than the Cup Series car. Raw speed will give teams/drivers the ability to keep track position at the front of the field and the racing surface simply does not offer enough payment to generate big runs from the back of the pack. As a result, we should expect that some of the fastest cars will likely dominate the track position game. The only way I see upsets unfolding is if we get some big incidents that knock off several of the top guys.
Betting Strategy
The reason that I point out the differences is because these Xfinity Series races, on the superspeedways, have been dominated by the faster cars/drivers in terms of time at the front of the field and I think this will be much less of a dart throw than Sunday’s Ambetter Health 400. The Xfinity Series car has less parity than the Cup Series car and that is why we see the same drivers at the front of the field in these races. Additionally, bettors must realize that the overall betting favorites have been winning at the superspeedways at a very high rate for the Xfinity Series.
I mentioned RCR’s streak of 5 wins over the last 7 races above. In each of those circumstances, the winner from RCA was a top two betting favorite if not the overall favorite. For that reason, I don’t want bettors to get lost in the “superspeedway” narrative and risk too many unnecessary units when recent history shows that the ROI has not been as strong as many might expect. Therefore, we will continue with a very cautious betting approach that will focus on minimizing risks and also look for the best ways to optimize our profits if we are able to hit a winner!
Daytona Recap
Before the Xfinity Series race at Daytona, I highlighted several of the drivers/teams that have performed well in recent races at the superspeedways and those facts have not changed. However, in preparation for Saturday’s Bennett Transportation & Logistics 250, we should also look back to last week’s race at Daytona to assess the drivers/teams that displayed the best outright speed. As stated above, track position will be very important at Atlanta. Therefore if we can identify the drivers that have a high probability of staying outfront, we may be able to increase our chances of hitting a winner. With that being said, let’s dive into last week’s observations.
In last week’s opener at Daytona, Austin Hill and Jesse Love were clearly the class of the field. Despite losing an engine, Hill still posted a 113.1 average driver rating which was 2nd to race winner Jesse Love. The only other driver that even had an average driver rating in that ballpark was Sheldon Creed (112.2). Personally, I was impressed with the speed from Creed in the #00 for Haas Factory Team which increases my expectations for the #00 going into this week’s race at Atlanta. Behind the top 3 guys, there was a pretty significant drop off where we find the group of Taylor Gray, Sam Mayer, and Jeb Burton who produced the next tier of average ratings over 90.0. Meanwhile, Ryan Sieg, Harrison Burton, and Dean Thompson were noteworthy names that produced average ratings over 85.0.
Betting Targets
Based on all the information provided above, I think we have a really high probability of seeing Hill or Love back in victory lane again on Saturday. While the superspeedway narrative would normally push us to seek betting value in other places, I want as much exposure as possible to the Hill/Love duo in betting formats. Hill obviously does not provide a lot of betting value as the outright favorite but I may have a long shot parlay tied to Hill that yields low-risk/high-reward. Behind Hill/Love, the betting odds get juicy. The guys that I believe deserve a lot of consideration are Sheldon Creed, Sam Mayer, and Taylor Gray. I really like all 3 of those guys from a speed and value standpoint.
While I am not very confident in any long shots winning on Saturday, betting odds are completely disrespecting names like Harrison Burton and Jeb Burton. Both Burton brothers are really solid superspeedway talents. Harrison Burton is a former Cup Series winner at Daytona and Jeb has scored multiple Xfinity Series victories on the superspeedways despite driving primarily for underfunded race teams. For those reasons, I will be looking for the Burtons as potential long shots or possibly better targets in prop bet formats. Lastly, I would also mention the names of Dean Thompson and Anthony Alfredo as options to consider in low-risk/high-reward style prop bets formats.
2025 Bennett Transportation & Logistics 250 Betting Picks
*FINAL* Sheldon Creed +1200 (.75 unit)
Sam Mayer +1600 (.5 unit)
Sammy Smith +2000 (.5 unit)
Taylor Gray +2500 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Two Team Parlay
Austin Hill +275 wins Bennett Transportation & Logistics 250
Toyota +300 wins Ambetter Health 400
Risking .75 unit to win:
+1050 Jesse Love/Aric Almirola +275 wins Bennett Transportation & Logistics 250
Team Penske +260 wins Ambetter Health 400
Risking .5 unit to win: +600 (Caesars Sportsbook)