2025 Baptist Health 200 Race Picks

Date/Time: Friday March 21st, 2025. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway
TV: FS1

Last week, Corey Heim earned his 2nd victory of the season at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the running of the Ecosave 200. Heim’s wins at Daytona and Las Vegas are among the only victories of the season from full-time Truck Series competitors. The only other driver to win this season was Kyle Busch in a part-time start at Atlanta. Late Friday night, Kyle Larson will try to become the next Cup Series star to add their name to the winning column. Larson will be competing in all 3 races this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway and is currently listed as the betting favorite for all 3 races. However, I believe the Truck Series race on Friday is not as much of a lock as current betting odds seem to suggest and that warrants further betting discussion!

Before we dive into expectations and potential betting selections, let’s first remind bettors that Homestead-Miami Speedway is a much different 1.5 mile venue from what we witnessed last week at Las Vegas. The surface at Homestead is among the most aged in the sport and that produces a treacherous combination of low grip and excessive tire wear conditions which will be experienced throughout all races this weekend. As a result of these difficult race conditions, we should expect the most talented drivers, in all 3 races this weekend, to emerge at the front of the field. More importantly from a handicapping standpoint, we should ensure that are betting selections align with the better talents in futures and H2H formats as well.

Betting Strategy

There are multiple ways to approach this race from a betting standpoint. If you think Kyle Larson is by far the best driver and has more than 57% of winning, then you may want to think about laying the juice with Larson at -130. Personally, I don’t see any value in that number despite Larson’s talent. Unlike the Xfinity Series cars where I think Larson’s holds an even bigger advantage for Saturday’s Hard Rock Bet 300, these trucks have more equipment/handling bias than the Xfinity and Cup cars when it comes to racing at Homestead. Additionally, Larson has won just 3 of 15 career starts in the Truck Series and is 0 for 3 specifically at Homestead. For those reasons, I believe the best betting strategy is to chase better value in this race in hopes that Larson goes 0 for 4 at Homestead and we can hit on some of the drivers that are receiving relatively strong betting value due to Larson’s presence on the entry list.

Betting Targets

Practice and qualifying for the Baptist Health 200 will not take place until Friday afternoon which leaves a slim window for odds to re-post. However, I don’t believe practice nor qualifying results will change our handicapping outlook. Behind Kyle Larson, Corey Heim, Ty Majeski, and Grant Enfinger have clearly been the best drivers at tracks like Homestead in this series. Last year’s truck race winner at Darlington and Cup Series veteran Ross Chastain will also be competing on Friday which will draw some intrigue. However, Chastain essentially “lucked” his way into the victory at Darlington and I am simply not confident in the speed the Niece Motorsports teams has shown to warrant any further betting consideration.

From an odds perspective, Heim is a must-have at 5-1 odds. He is clearly the best driver in the field behind Larson and led a race-high 68 laps in this race one year ago. I would consider Majeski and Enfinger more in the realm of dark horses but both drivers can be targeted conservatively in all formats. I expect we will see a contender from the group of Chandler Smith, Daniel Hemric, Brandon Jones (part-time start in the #1 truck), and Layne Riggs. However, I just don’t have enough confidence in any of those drivers unless something changes during tomorrow’s on-track activities.

Last week, Tanner Gray +1000 cashed with a top 5 prop bet which saved us from an awful day. I believe the TRICON Garage trucks have shown tremendous speed thus far this season which means Gray and Gio Ruggiero are back in the prop bet consideration again this week. However, keep in mind that we will need more from the driver this week as opposed to outright pure organizational speed from the truck. Along with those two drivers, I would also consider the likes of Jack Wood and Connor Mosack as an additional duo that could have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. Ideally this drivers should only be targeted in low-risk/high-reward style prop bets but may also provide fantasy value as well pending qualifying results.

Draftkings Baptist Health 200 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Baptist Health 200 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Corey Heim +500 (1.5 units)
Ross Chastain +1200 (.5 unit)
Ty Majeski +1400 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ross Chastain +100 over Chandler Smith (2 units)

Kyle Larson Parlay

Kyle Larson -125 wins Baptist Health 200
Kyle Larson +400 wins Straight Talk Wireless 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +800