2025 Ambetter Health 400 Race Picks
Date/Time: Sunday February 22nd, 2025. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
TV: FOX
Last week, the Cup Series outlasted weather delays and displayed an exciting spectacle in the 67th running of The Great American Race. In the end, William Byron emerged with his 2nd straight win in the Daytona 500 following a last lap wreck that wiped out numerous leaders on the backstretch. The excitement from Daytona and the chaotic finish will bubble over into Sunday’s race at Atlanta Motor Speedway by way of the Ambetter Health 400. Once again, the Cup Series will have the opportunity to participate in superspeedway style racing while providing bettors a plethora of options to consider!
Before chaos unfolded in the late stages of the Daytona 500, Team Penske cars flexed their speed throughout speedweeks. In last week’s preview, I highlighted the fact that the Team Penske cars of Austin Cindric, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney ranked 1, 2, and 3 in our dynamic averages that compiles performance ratings over the last 5 races on the superspeedways. In last week’s Daytona 500, those same Team Penske cars were easily the class of the field throughout the majority of the race. Blaney and Cindric posted the best driver averages while Logano arguably had the fastest car in the race.
The reason I mention the speed from the Team Penske cars is because bettors should expect those cars to be very strong again on Sunday especially at a place like Atlanta where passing is more difficult. Earlier today, Ryan Blaney won the pole for Sunday’s Ambetter Health 400 and all 3 of the Team Penske cars qualified in the top 4 positions. Needless to say, the Team Penske cars will start the race with optimal track position and likely have the cars to beat yet again. With that being said, we also understand that the fastest cars do not always win when it comes to this style of racing. Therefore, we will discuss other betting options and drivers that should bring value to betting lineups!
Betting Strategy
I have preached a conservative strategy all week and that will not change going into Sunday. Despite Atlanta being known as a hybrid superspeedway, the overall betting favorite has won in each of the first two races this weekend in the Craftsman Truck Series and the Xfinity Series. The reason that trend is significant is because it directly relates to how this track races. With the rubber aging, it is harder for cars to run side by side without significant pushing especially on the bottom side of the track. As a result, passing is difficult and there is just not enough racing surface to offer much more than two-wide racing; meaning track position will be the name of the game. Therefore, I would not be surprised if the “favorites” end up in victory lane again on Sunday. If that seems to be a highly likely scenario, bettors must minimize overall risks and not get carried away with the allure of hitting an unlikely lottery style winner.
Loop Data
After last week’s Daytona 500, our dynamic averages related to the superspeedways have been updated to show performance trends over the last 5 races at superspeedway venues. Overall, I don’t think the rankings have shifted much especially considering the Team Penske cars occupy 3 of the top 4 spots. The only difference this week is that William Byron has vaulted to the #2 spot following last week’s win at Daytona. To be fair, Byron is a really good superspeedway talent and still somehow does not get enough credit for his craft at this style of racing. Behind those guys, Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain, and Tyler Reddick are the drivers in the next performance threshold. Interestingly, all of those drivers would be considered dark horses from Sunday.
Chastain and Reddick had disappointing qualifying efforts on Sunday so perhaps that will be some hidden value for those drivers’ chances of winning on Sunday. Lastly, I will just throw out names like Michael McDowell, Todd Gilliland, and Riley Herbst who also have yielded respectable performance results despite being considered bottom-tier talents. McDowell’s superspeedway pedigree is widely known and evident in current betting odds. Meanwhile, Gilliland and Herbst are true lottery long shots that have shown a knack of being around at the end of these races. Therefore, just some things bettors should consider especially in fantasy and prop bet formats!
Betting Targets
As stated in the beginning of our preview, I believe everyone is chasing the Team Penske brigade and betting odds rightfully are in heavy favor to the trio of Blaney, Logano, and Cindric. Cindric is receiving the most valuable odds out of the trio and may be worthy of standalone betting action. Meanwhile, Blaney and Logano have much less betting value in futures formats. Bettors could explore parlay opportunities with the Team Penske cars but that brings another leg of risk into consideration as well. Either way no matter how you decide to bet tomorrow’s race, I want heavy exposure to the Team Penske cars despite the ROI concerns.
Outside of Team Penske, betting odds are relatively juicy for the remaining competitors and it is hard to not get enticed into taking several drivers simply based on value. Personally, I believe Byron, Chase Elliott, and Bubba Wallace have generous value. All 3 of those drivers excel at the superspeedways and have shown solid trends at Atlanta. Meanwhile, I would also be ignorant to not mention last year’s winner Daniel Suarez. Suarez has finished 1st and 2nd (2) in each of the last 3 races at Atlanta which is a pretty remarkable string of finishes. I was hoping for a better number on Suarez but his recent string of Atlanta performances still warrant consideration. Meanwhile, Erik Jones, AJ Allmendinger, and Riley Herbst are my lottery picks to be used in prop bet formats that have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggests.
2025 Ambetter Health 400 Betting Picks
*FINAL* Joey Logano +800 (.25 unit)
Austin Cindric +1000 (.25 unit)
Kyle Busch +1200 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +2000 (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace +2500 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +2500 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +5000 (.25 unit)
Riley Herbst +8000 (.25 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Team Penske +260 wins Ambetter Health 400 (2 units)
Chase Briscoe +475 wins Group D (Bowman, Buescher, Chastain)(1 unit)
Erik Jones +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)