2024 Zip Buy Now Pay Later 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday June 8th, 2024. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Sonoma Raceway
TV: FS1

For the 2nd straight week, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will go road course racing when the green flag waves for Saturday’s Zip Buy Now, Pay Later 250 at Sonoma Raceway. Last week, Shane Van Gisbergen earned his 1st career Xfinity Series win, and 2nd NASCAR win overall, by winning the Pacific Office Automation 147 at Portland International Raceway. Through two road course races this season in the Xfinity Series, SVG has been dominant and is expected to be the guy to beat again on Saturday at Sonoma. However, the competition will be even tougher this week as Cup Series driver, and road course ace, Ty Gibbs steps down to join the action along with the rest of the Xfinity Series regulars.

In last week’s preview, I mentioned that the battle between SVG and AJ Allmendinger at the road courses would be fun to watch this season. So far, SVG has easily been the best driver at this style of racing. Despite making several mistakes last week and even damaging the car, SVG was able to bring home a victory as other drivers failed to take advantage. Meanwhile, Allmendinger was oddly not among the best cars/drivers last week while Justin Allgaier, Sam Mayer, and Sheldon Creed all flashed strength at times throughout the race.

For Saturday’s Zip Buy Now, Pay Later 250, we will expect the same names to be in contention yet again with the addition of Ty Gibbs who has been phenomenal at the road courses throughout his Xfinity Series career. While SVG has been clearly dominant at this style of racing, Sonoma Raceway is a bit more of a side-winding road course with less heavy braking zones than many other road courses. SVG and Allmendinger are notorious for beating the competition in the braking zones and there are just not as many of those heavy-braking zones at Sonoma. As a result, I will be keeping an open-mind towards guys that could be a somewhat “surprise” story on Saturday just like we saw last year when Aric Almirola beat Allmendinger and Kyle Larson for a victory at Sonoma.

Betting Strategy

Betting odds for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race at Sonoma have been downright awful throughout the entire week. Even early betting odds had SVG, Gibbs, and Allmendinger all at less than 4-1 odds. After Friday’s practice, things have gotten even worse. As a result, I think our best opportunity to profit in this race will be focusing on the H2H match-ups. For futures (win), I will likely take some small plays in the low-risk fashion towards drivers that I believe could yield a “surprise” victory as alluded to above and also potentially look for a parlay opportunity with the steep heavy favorites. In a tough week against the odds makers, I believe this strategy gives us our best opportunity to profit.

Practice Observations

As we dive into practice observations, it’s worth noting that qualifying will not take place until Saturday afternoon so the starting lineup at the time of this writing is still unknown. With that being said, SVG continued to flex his road course strength on Friday by posting the fastest lap in practice with a speed of 95.152mph. SVG’s fastest lap had the field covered by more than 3 tenths and he also had the best overall average as well. Behind SVG, Ty Gibbs and Justin Allgaier were among the guys that consistently looked strong on the stopwatch that I believe have speed to contend on Saturday.

AJ Allmendinger, Sheldon Creed, and Cole Custer were among other notable names that all appeared to be within striking distance. I don’t think Allmendinger showed enough speed to justify his current betting odds but those odds are more influenced by Allmendinger’s road course resume than they are about Friday’s practice session. Behind many of the known names, I also saw positive signs in the speed department for the likes of Parker Kligerman and Sam Mayer. Meanwhile, there were a lot of road course specialists that I had my eyes on Friday for potential betting targets in the H2H department. Among the several drivers, Boris Said is piloting the #17 for Hendrick Motorsports this week. However, Said wrecked mid-way through practice and will be forced to a backup car. Additionally, I did not really see much optimism from most of the part-time drivers with potentially the lone exception being Alex Labbe.

Betting Targets

I don’t think there is any question that everyone will likely be chasing SVG late Saturday afternoon when the green flag waves for this race. Despite my notion that Sonoma has less heavy braking zones, SVG showed tremendous speed on Friday during practice and this is setting up to be another great opportunity for the New Zealand native. Behind SVG, things get more tricky. While some will lean towards AJ Allmendinger, I think Ty Gibbs and Justin Allgaier are both likely to contend. Unfortunately, Allgaier is the only driver in that group with any real betting value. Like I said earlier, betting odds are making our race picks very tough this week; especially in the futures (win) market.

As a result, I am trying to focus more on the drivers that should yield H2H value for true betting targets. My favorite drivers in that category surround the likes of Parker Kligerman and Justin Allgaier. I mentioned Allgaier’s name above as a guy that I expect to contend at the front of the field but he also may produce H2H value as well against the likes of Sam Mayer, Sheldon Creed, and others who I don’t believe have as high ceilings. Kligerman is perhaps a sharper pick. Despite being 2nd in practice on Friday, I was most impressed with Kligerman’s performance in this race last year where he finished 5th. Kligerman is not really known as a road course talent but actually performs really well at this style of racing. As a result, I expect him to yield some solid value on Saturday.

Other drivers to keep on your radar for prop bets/fantasy purposes that are deeper in the field include Alex Labbe and Austin Green.

2024 Zip Buy Now Pay Later 250 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Ty Gibbs +300 (1.5 units)
Justin Allgaier +1400 (.5 unit)
Cole Custer +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Justin Allgaier -145 over Sheldon Creed (2 units)
Cole Custer +115 over Sam Mayer (2 units)
Jesse Love +700 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Shane Van Gisbergen +150 wins Zip Buy Now, Pay Later 250
Kyle Busch -125 finishes Top 10 in Toyota/Save Mart 350
Risking 1.5 units to win: +525