2024 Yellawood 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday October 6th, 2024. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: USA

Last week, Ross Chastain earned his first victory of the season at Kansas Speedway and shut out the playoff contenders from capturing a victory to automatically advance to the next round of the playoffs. As a result, the 12 drivers remaining in the championship hunt are fighting for points as the biggest wild-card race in the playoffs looms on Sunday with the running of the Yellawood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. With all of the playoff drivers needing points and good finishes, the championship drama will be fun to watch and we will spice things up by chasing the opportunity for a big payday!

Back in the spring, Tyler Reddick scored his first victory at Talladega following a crazy last lap where Michael McDowell threw a block causing a wreck between himself at Brad Keselowski as the two came to the finish line. Reddick was able to sneak through the accident and take the checkered flag in what was one of the wildest finishes of the entire season. While the finish of the race back in the spring was exciting, I would remind bettors that the majority of the race was uneventful as teams/drivers spent nearly 500 miles trying to save gas because their best opportunity to gain track position was on pit road. Unfortunately, I think that may be the case again on Sunday but I hope I am wrong from a spectator perspective.

From a betting perspective, Talladega still presents the ultimate opportunity to cash a big winner because there are so many cars in the field that can legitimately win if they have that late-race track position. Unfortunately, it has been a long time since we witnessed a true upset winner at Talladega in the Cup Series but something also tells me that we are due for a big underdog winner as well. For that reason and the simple nature of superspeedway style racing, we are going to chase value this weekend and have several intermediate to long run options on our betting card. If we can survive the chaos, possibly play the pit road game correctly, perhaps we can get a little lucky to drive home a winner!

Talladega – Quick Notes

• Brad Keselowski owns the most wins (6) among active drivers at Talladega.
• Ryan Blaney (3), Joey Logano (3), Chase Elliott (2), Denny Hamlin (2), Kyle Busch (2), Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, and Tyler Reddick are all former winners at Talladega.
• Ryan Blaney has the best average finishing position (7.7) among all drivers over the last 10 races at Talladega.
• Chase Elliott has the best career average finishing position (13.7) among drivers with more than 5 starts at Talladega.
• Todd Gilliland has an 13th place average finishing position through 5 career starts at Talladega. Gilliland has not finished worse than 13th in his last 4 starts.
• William Byron has finished 7th or better in the last 3 races at Talladega.
• Erik Jones has finished 9th or better in 6 of the last 9 races at Talladega.
• Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman have produced career average finishing positions of 22.8 through their careers at Talladega.
• Despite being known as a solid superspeedway driver, Michael McDowell has a 26.7 career average finishing position at Talladega.
• The last 7 winners at Talladega have started 10th or worse.
• There have been 6 cautions or less in 5 of the last 6 races at Talladega.

Superspeedway Dynamic Averages

Our dynamic averages for the superspeedways is a solid handicapping tool this weekend to gauge performance trends throughout the season at this style of racing. In our dynamic averages, notice that all 3 Team Penske cars have 3 of the top 4 overall averages with Joey Logano (1st – 95.6), Austin Cindric (2nd – 95.3), and Ryan Blaney (4th – 88.6). The Ford teams have been really strong at the superspeedways this season because of the amount of drag the manufacturers produce which have given them a speed advantage. While there are still a number of variables in race conditions, rest assured that you will likely want some of those Fords on your betting card for Sunday.

Beyond the strength of the Fords, I would also draw attention to Kyle Busch who has been really strong at the superspeedways. Busch was in position to win multiple races this season at the superspeedways but just did not get the breaks needed. Personally, I think this is an excellent spot for Busch to bounce back from last week’s disaster and get a revenge victory. Obviously that is much easier said than done but I have a gut feeling on Rowdy this week. Looking through the rest of the dynamic averages, notable call outs should be given to Todd Gilliland and Michael McDowell who have both performed really well. McDowell won the pole for Sunday’s Yellawood 500 with a blistering fast lap of 183.063mph and has to be trending in the right direction after nearly winning this race in the spring.

Betting Targets

I routinely joke that there are no “bad” decisions at superspeedways due to the fact that everyone has a legitimate chance to win these races. With that being said, I am loading up on some of the Ford drivers. I believe Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are easily the best drivers at superspeedway racing with the Next Gen Car. I prefer Logano this week simply because he is receiving better odds. Meanwhile, Michael McDowell and Austin Cindric have shown the performance trends, speed, and overall superspeedway skills to warrant immediate betting consideration as frontrunners from the Ford camp.

Beyond the Ford options, I really like Kyle Busch’s chances for Sunday especially considering he does not need to race for stage points and can the #8 team can focus their strategy specifically towards winning. For the record, William Byron, Bubba Wallace, Chase Elliott, and Denny Hamlin are all formidable pivot options among the drivers in the 2nd-tier range of betting odds. I’m just personally chasing the best value because that has been the best long-term strategy for superspeedway racing. With that being said, Todd Gilliland, Chase Briscoe, and Noah Gragson are all Ford drivers that can be considered live long shots. All 3 of those drivers have shown respectable skills at the superspeedways and have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. Meanwhile, I would throw in names like Harrison Burton and Justin Haley as deep dark horses that may provide some upside in prop bet formats.

2024 Yellawood 500 Optimal Lineup

2024 Yellawood 500 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Joey Logano +1200 (.75 unit)
Kyle Busch +1400 (.75 unit)
Michael McDowell +1600 (.5 unit)
Austin Cindric +2200 (.5 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +2800 (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +3300 (.5 unit)
Noah Gragson +4500 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Todd Gilliland -115 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)
Erik Jones +900 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +1200 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)