2024 XPEL 225 Race Picks
Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 23rd, 2023. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: Circuit of the Americas
TV: FS1
On Saturday, there will be back to back betting opportunities with a double-header between the Craftsman Truck Series and Xfinity Series at Circuit of the Americas. The opening race will focus on the Truck Series and the running of the XPEL 225 which will be followed by a star-studded lineup in the Xfinity Series which will feature the running of the Focused Health 250 later in the afternoon. Needless to say, we will have the privilege of a full afternoon of racing with the opportunity to cash some winning tickets!
On Friday, Connor Zilisch became the potential surprise story of the weekend by winning the pole for Saturday’s XPEL 225 in his series debut. Zilisch posted a fast lap of 93.012mph in qualifying which covered the field by a relatively wide margin. The 17 year old prospect is currently signed to TrackHouse Racing’s development program and is getting the opportunity to drive the #7 truck this weekend for Spire Motorsports. For those that may be unaware of Zilisch’s background, he has produced wins in nearly everything he has driven which includes late models, sports cars, and other various types of racing. Zilisch also posted a runner-up finish in his only ARCA start last year at Watkins Glen.
Personally, I have rarely favored betting on drivers who are making their debuts no matter the talent or hype around an individual. Throughout the history of NASCAR, we have seen that it typically takes drivers time before they start winning. However, it would be rather ignorant to avoid trends in recent years where we have seen more guys that have contended for wins in their first starts. In fact, Shane Van Gisbergen proved that theory wrong with his win last year at the Chicago street course. Therefore, Zilisch is one of those drivers that has the resume and has shown the speed thus far through the weekend to potentially be one of those breakout success stories.
Betting Strategy
Throughout the beginning of the year, I have preached heavily towards conservative betting strategy because every new racing season presents challenges and a learning curve. While I believe we should remain conservative over the next several weeks, I do believe Circuit of the Americas provides an opportunity to be slightly more aggressive. For those that are unaware, Circuit of the Americas is a massive road course that is very challenging. As a result, the drivers with the best road course skills typically get the job done at this venue meaning we can approach handicapping from a pure talent (skill) standpoint rather than worrying about equipment and setups. Therefore if we can get solid betting value for our targets, we can be a bit more aggressive with wager sizes this week and overall risk.
Practice Observations and Notes
In Friday’s lone practice session, Corey Heim and Ross Chastain appeared to be trending in the direction of the potential outright favorites. Heim posted the fastest lap of the session and also had the best overall average among all drivers. Chastain will be piloting the #45 for Niece Motorsports this week and the organization has struggled from a performance perspective, Chastain was able to get a ton of speed from the car and was among the fastest on the stopwatch. It is also worth mentioning that COTA is the site of Chastain’s 1st Cup Series victory and definitely one of the places where he has been fast throughout his career.
Behind Heim, Chastain, and Zilisch, I thought there was a pretty sizable dropoff in outright speed and consistency. WIth that being said, guys like Taylor Gray, Tyler Ankrum, and Ben Rhodes were among the drivers that appeared to be trending in the right direction. It is worth noting that both Ankrum and Rhodes have been fast at COTA in recent years. With the way Ankrum’s team has been performing with fast trucks every week, I believe Ankrum could be an ideal H2H target. On the other side of the practice observation spectrum, I would also list guys like Matt Crafton and Layne Riggs as drivers that appeared to be struggling to make speed. Riggs is one of the young drivers that has minimal road course experience and that could be something to consider for H2H match-ups this weekend.
Betting Targets
I’m sort of surprised that Corey Heim is such a heavy betting favorite going into Saturday. While Heim is likely the most talented driver in the Truck Series, his prior road course performances have not exactly suggested he is going to dominate tomorrow’s race as current betting odds suggest. As a result, I will be happy to fade Heim for better value for selections for the outright win. Despite my personal trend of avoiding first-time drivers, I would much rather take Zilisch at better odds after shattering the track record (twice) in qualifying and with his resume for this style of racing. Meanwhile, I believe guys like Ross Chastain and Ty Majeski have winning ceilings as well.
While this race may be a little top heavy in terms of winning selections, I am looking for bigger plays in H2H match-ups where we can identify sharper betting value. As mentioned earlier, Tyler Ankrum is high on my list for potential H2H targets based on team momentum and historical trends at road course venues. Additional H2H options that I believe should be on everyone’s radar include the likes of Ben Rhodes and Taylor Gray. For some reason, Rhodes is receiving disrespecting betting odds and I simply believe his ceiling is much better than current odds suggests. Meanwhile, Gray has shown speed throughout the weekend in all sessions and has shown decent results in prior road course races. As a mid-tier driver, Gray could have much higher upside than those drivers around him.
2024 XPEL 225 Betting Picks
*FINAL*
Connor Zilisch +300 (1 unit)
Ty Majeski +1200 (.5 unit)
Tyler Ankrum +1400 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Connor Zilisch +125 over Corey Heim (2 units)
Taylor Gray +115 over Nick Sanchez (2 units)
