2024 Xfinity Championship Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday November 9th, 2024. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: NBC

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will crown a champion at Phoenix Raceway in the Xfinity Series Championship Race. Among the championship contenders, Cole Custer is the defending series champion and will have the opportunity to become the first driver to win back to back championships since Tyler Reddick in 2018-2019. However, AJ Allmendinger, Austin Hill, and Justin Allgaier are all battling for their first championship and have shown the speed throughout the season to get the job done. Needless to say, 200 laps stand in between these drivers and a championship trophy!

While history tells us that the final four has won the season finale in 6 straight seasons, I would call out the fact that there are some heavy hitters in the non-championship picture that could be big players in this race. Back in the spring, Chandler Smith won the Call 811.com 200 at Phoenix Raceway. Smith led 88 of 200 laps en route to victory. Smith also won two weeks later at Richmond Raceway which has a lot of similarities to Phoenix. I mention those facts because Smith is among the group of drivers that is not racing for a championship on Saturday and there is a relatively large group of drivers that are worthy of betting consideration despite their playoff status. Smith, Aric Almirola, and Sheldon Creed have all been fast this season at the short-tracks and will be among the drivers attempting to play the spoiler role on Saturday.

Phoenix – Betting Notes

• Justin Allgaier (2), Brandon Jones, Cole Custer, and Chandler Smith are former winners at Phoenix.
• Jesse Love finished 2nd, in the spring race, in his only Xfinity start at Phoenix.
• Chandler Smith (spring winner) has a 112 average driver rating through 3 career starts at Phoenix.
• Cole Custer has posted a 100+ average driver rating in his last 6 starts at Phoenix.
• Sheldon Creed has finished 3rd of better in his last 3 starts at Phoenix.
• Sammy Smith has finished in the Top 10 in all 4 career starts at Phoenix.
• In the 3 races this season at Phoenix, Richmond, and Loudon which all have similarities, Chandler Smith (123.3), Cole Custer (119.6), and Justin Allgaier (104.3) are the only drivers to produce a 100+ average driver rating.
• Toyota drivers have won 4 of the last 6 races at Phoenix.
• There have been at least 8 cautions in 4 of the last 6 races at Phoenix.
• The eventual race winner has started from the Top 5 starting positions in 37 of 45 Xfinity Series races at Phoenix.

Handicapping and Betting Strategy

As explained in yesterday’s Truck Series preview, the best way to handicap Phoenix is a hybrid approach that looks at how drivers have performed at Phoenix specifically and also how drivers have performed at similar venues most recently. I believe those two narratives often paint the picture of who is doing the best job at this style of racing. The problem is that the Xfinity Series has produced a lot of drivers that have performed well at the short-tracks and betting odds are very conservative. For that reason, there is not any strong value in futures (win) bets at this time unless we are creating parlay opportunities. As a result, bettors should be looking for better ROI opportunities with H2H and prop bet formats.

Practice Speeds

The big story from practice on Friday surrounded the fact that championship contender Justin Allgaier will have to go to a backup car after wrecking. Allgaier, Brandon Jones, and Aric Almirola were among the names that were all involved in the accident after Brennan Poole blew an engine and laid oil down on the track. All 3 drivers were forced into backup cars. Before the incident, Allgaier had the 2nd fastest lap of the session behind Jesse Love. Allgaier and Almirola were among the top 4 drivers in fastest times. Personally, I thought Almirola was producing some of the best lap times towards the end of practice so it will be interesting to see if the #20 team can produce similar speed with their backup car.

Aside from Allgaier, I thought Cole Custer and Austin Hill were equally the next best option among the championship contenders with AJ Allmendinger seemingly with the least speed. Custer has been much better on the short tracks this season but Hill’s lap times in practice were seemingly better than Custer especially on the longer runs. While I believe practice speeds are somewhat overrated this weekend, I would also call out positive vibes from the likes of Jesse Love and Connor Zilisch. Love was the fastest overall in practice and Zilisch was towards the top in all the consecutive lap categories which is relative to race speed. As a result, both young drivers are trending in the right direction going into Saturday.

Betting Targets

I know the championship contenders are going to get all of the attention but there are too many drivers that are capable of winning this race to ignore. Chandler Smith and Aric Almirola have been the best at these short track layouts and are worthy of favorite consideration. However, Almirola is going to a backup car which creates some discernment. Meanwhile, Smith is listed at mere 4-1 betting odds which is simply overvalued. If you consider the numerous drivers that are posting similar lap times in practice, I think bettors should side with value when making betting selections because there are about 6-8 drivers that are very equal going into Saturday’s finale. If I absolutely had to pick someone among the outright favorites, I would lean towards Allgaier and Almirola as the top picks.

In my opinion, Jesse Love and Connor Zilisch are among the best value bets on the card. Both drivers have winning upside but are getting 20-1 odds or better. Personally, I like both drivers more in H2H formats but I believe both drivers can also be considered legitimate dark horses for the outright victory. Sheldon Creed is another name that did not necessarily over impress in practices but has been very good at Phoenix and the short tracks. Creed is getting fairly generous betting odds and is long overdue for a victory. Deeper into the field, William Sawalich and Brandon Jones may be names to consider in prop bet formats. Both drivers are in great equipment and should hang around the top 10. If either of those drivers/teams nail the setup, hit the strategy perfectly, or just have a quality run, they could easily produce top 5 upside. As a result, both drivers are on the radar for potential prop bets.

2024 Xfinity Series Championship Race Optimal Lineup

2024 Xfinity Series Championship Race Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Aric Almirola +650 (1 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1000 (.75 units)
Connor Zilisch +2200 (.5 unit)
Jesse Love +2200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Sheldon Creed +220 wins Group B (Hill, Mayer, S. Smith)(2 units)