Last week, Tyler Reddick delivered one of the most clutch moments in recent history by passing two cars on the final lap to win at Homestead and punch his ticket to the championship finale at Phoenix. Reddick joined Joey Logano as the two drivers that have secured their championship tickets which means two spots will be up for grabs when the round of 8 concludes on Sunday at Martinsville Speedway for the running of the Xfinity 500. As things currently stand, Christopher Bell and William Byron are the two drivers above the cutoff line. However, there are numerous drivers, both playoff and non-playoff drivers, that could steal a victory on Sunday and shake-up the final 4 at Phoenix!
Back in the spring, William Byron earned a victory in the Cook Out 400 in the first race of the season at Martinsville Speedway. Byron has been really good at Martinsville with 2 victories in the last 5 races. In terms of this year, Byron started the season on fire by winning 3 of the first 8 races. However, Byron’s victory in the spring was the last win for the #24 team this year. The #24 team has not necessarily run poorly during the 2nd half of the season but they have not shown the elite speed that was flexed during the early part of the season. Obviously, Byron is among the drivers that desperately need an extremely strong performance to keep their championship hopes alive and it will be interesting to see if they can return the speed shown in the spring.
While Byron has been one of the best drivers at Martinsville in recent years, there are several other drivers that deserve equal respect for their resumes at Martinsville. From a betting standpoint, we have seen a similar narrative all weekend with 4-5 drivers listed as very big favorites in each NASCAR touring series. The reason for this trend is because there are a handful of drivers that consistently put themselves at the front of this half-mile paperclip and have shown the skill set to continuously put themselves in a position for a victory. For that reason, odds-makers have not allowed much value on the guys with proven Martinsville resumes and that will make things difficult from a betting perspective as we try to extract as much value as possible with our selections.
When it comes to handicapping Martinsville, our best angle is to look at prior performances because this track is so unique and unlike any other venue on the schedule. While handicappers can look at tracks like New Hampshire, Richmond, and a few other short-tracks for comparison, the most useful information is observing the track history and how drivers have performed in the new car at this layout. To help paint a better picture of that narrative, I have compiled loop data metrics for the 5 races at Martinsville in the Next Gen Car. Bettors should use these metrics as a fundamental baseline going into Sunday’s Xfinity 500 and avoid making any betting selections that greatly contradict these metrics. Again, this is not our sole handicapping component this week but it’s definitely our primary component.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 107.5 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 7.4 | -18 | 116 | 184 | 2218 |
| Ryan Blaney | 107.3 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 8.2 | 38 | 179 | 150 | 2218 |
| Denny Hamlin | 106.2 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 51 | 206 | 461 | 2215 |
| Chase Elliott | 104.7 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 8.2 | -18 | 194 | 386 | 2217 |
| Chase Briscoe | 101.9 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 2 | 134 | 142 | 2218 |
| Joey Logano | 99.0 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 10.2 | 44 | 83 | 109 | 2218 |
| William Byron | 95.5 | 14.4 | 12.8 | 9.2 | 11.4 | 21 | 114 | 300 | 2217 |
| Christopher Bell | 88.3 | 15.2 | 13.6 | 15.8 | 14.4 | 2 | 120 | 150 | 2213 |
| Bubba Wallace | 85.7 | 12.4 | 16.2 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 50 | 59 | 0 | 2218 |
| Ryan Preece | 84.4 | 10.7 | 14.3 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 21 | 41 | 135 | 1314 |
| Ross Chastain | 80.3 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 10.2 | 14.2 | 23 | 39 | 31 | 2217 |
| Alex Bowman | 76.0 | 17.5 | 16.3 | 15.8 | 16.3 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 1714 |
| Brad Keselowski | 75.7 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 20.4 | 15.6 | -26 | 26 | 7 | 2023 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 75.5 | 11.4 | 21.4 | 15.2 | 16.8 | 40 | 79 | 47 | 2213 |
| Todd Gilliland | 69.9 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 18.4 | 15.6 | -30 | 19 | 0 | 2213 |
| Daniel Suarez | 68.6 | 17.4 | 17.0 | 23.0 | 17.8 | -4 | 54 | 20 | 1987 |
| Chris Buescher | 66.5 | 16.8 | 20.6 | 15.4 | 18.8 | -10 | 18 | 0 | 2214 |
| Ty Gibbs | 65.9 | 13.8 | 16.8 | 18.8 | 18.3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 1811 |
| Tyler Reddick | 65.8 | 18.8 | 18.2 | 21.8 | 18.0 | -33 | 34 | 0 | 1904 |
| Austin Dillon | 62.1 | 22.2 | 22.0 | 21.2 | 21.4 | 10 | 40 | 1 | 2030 |
| Austin Cindric | 61.8 | 20.6 | 19.8 | 20.6 | 20.2 | -2 | 29 | 6 | 2211 |
| Kyle Busch | 58.6 | 17.6 | 24.2 | 20.2 | 22.2 | -10 | 18 | 0 | 2209 |
| Erik Jones | 57.8 | 24.2 | 21.0 | 19.2 | 21.4 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 2213 |
| Michael McDowell | 54.0 | 21.4 | 22.8 | 21.6 | 21.8 | -43 | 26 | 0 | 2213 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 50.7 | 23.6 | 22.4 | 21.2 | 22.8 | -36 | 1 | 0 | 2210 |
| Noah Gragson | 49.5 | 24.0 | 25.0 | 25.3 | 24.0 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1309 |
| Corey LaJoie | 49.4 | 25.8 | 23.6 | 26.8 | 24.8 | -40 | 13 | 3 | 2205 |
| Harrison Burton | 48.4 | 26.6 | 26.8 | 23.0 | 25.4 | 16 | 11 | 0 | 2209 |
| Carson Hocevar | 47.2 | 28.5 | 24.5 | 24.0 | 26.0 | -10 | 4 | 0 | 910 |
| Justin Haley | 39.3 | 24.6 | 28.0 | 29.4 | 28.4 | -34 | 2 | 0 | 2203 |
| Zane Smith | 37.5 | 28.5 | 31.0 | 32.5 | 29.5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 807 |
Following Saturday’s on-track activities, Martin Truex Jr emerged with the pole for Sunday’s Xfinity 500 with a fast lap of 96.190mph. The pole award is Truex’s first in his farewell tour and 3rd overall at Martinsville. Truex topped the likes of Chase Elliott, William Byron, Chase Briscoe, and Ty Gibbs among the top 5 qualifiers. Perhaps the biggest storyline of the afternoon surrounded Denny Hamlin who wrecked during final practice and had to resort to a backup car. Hamlin failed to post a qualifying effort and his championship hopes will start from the 37th position on Sunday.
While qualifying speeds are often misleading because long-run speed is critical for a place like Martinsville, I must admit that the Toyota teams appeared to show the most speed. Martin Truex Jr, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell all emerged as the elite favorites following Saturday’s practice session. Both Truex and Bell led every major consecutive lap category with Bell emerging as the best long-run driver. Those 3 Toyota drivers stood along at the top of the speed charts with notable mentions going to the likes of Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott who also appeared among the fastest cars in the field. Other drivers that appeared to be outshining the top talents included the likes of Carson Hocevar, Ryan Preece, and Ty Gibbs as additional drivers that appeared to be trending far above what current betting odds suggest. As a result, those bottom-tier talents can be considered legitimate H2H options going into Sunday’s Xfinity 500!
In breaking down the favorites, I will admit that Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell are emerging as my outright overall favorites. Blaney has been among the best in the Cup Series over the last several years and was the only Ford manufacturer to display winning speed on Saturday. Meanwhile, Bell has been the fastest car for the last several weeks and will get the opportunity to show his short-track strength again this weekend. Bell also has a pretty sizable points lead which could give him the option to make more aggressive strategy calls on Sunday to get the outright victory.
Obviously, Denny Hamlin will be starting behind the 8-ball this weekend due to his wreck during practice. While I believe the Toyotas have shown the most speed, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson are also formidable options that have shown winning speed throughout the weekend and have shown positive trends from an historical analysis. For some reason, Elliott consistently is underrated at Martinsville but is among the best drivers in the Cup Series at Martinsville. For that reason, I have Elliott listed high on my H2H target list. Meanwhile, Chase Briscoe and Ryan Preece are among my top H2H targets. Both Briscoe and Preece have consistently performed better than their expectations and will enter the weekend with a great opportunity to outrun their current projections.
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