2024 Wright Brand 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday May 18th, 2024. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: North Wilkesboro Speedway
TV: FS1
As NASCAR’s Cup Series prepares for two nights of All-Star Race festivities, the Truck Series will have the opportunity to join the action early Saturday afternoon with the running of the Wright Brand 250 at North Wilkesboro Speedway. Last year, NASCAR made a historic move to return to North Wilkesboro after 27 years of inactivity. The historic .625 mile speedway hosted the sport’s earliest events going back to 1949 and is the epitome of NASCAR grassroots racing. The infamous short-track that is buried in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains in North Carolina and has become the new home to NASCAR’s All-Star Race and will once again host a Craftsman Truck Series Series event.
In last year’s return to North Wilkesboro, Kyle Larson swept both events by winning the Truck Series race on Saturday and winning the All-Star Race on Sunday; both in dominating fashion. For Saturday’s Wright Brand 250, Truck Series competitors will not have to worry about Larson as he attempts to qualify for the Indianapolis 500. The only Cup Series competitor that will be competing in both events this year will be last week’s winner Ross Chastain who returns to the #45 truck with Niece Motorsports. With the exception of a couple of part-time drivers, the vast majority of Saturday’s field will center around full-time Truck Series competitors.
So far this season, the Truck Series has produced 6 different winners through the opening 9 races. Christian Eckes and Corey Heim are the only full-time drivers with multiple wins this year and both drivers have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the competition. Heim led 75 laps in last year’s Truck Series race at North Wilkesboro but faded in the closing laps to finish 6th. Meanwhile, Eckes has been the driver with the best short track pedigree this season. Eckes won at Bristol and Martinsville which are the only short tracks that the Truck Series’ has competed on this season. As a result, Eckes and Heim were among the hefty favorites going into the weekend. However, some of those expectations may have changed on Friday following practice for the Wright Brand 250 and that is something that we will discuss later in this preview.
Handicapping Strategy
The most important change to Saturday’s Wright Brand 250 surrounds the racing surface at North Wilkesboro Speedway. After hosting a successful All-Star weekend last year, the track was repaved over the offseason and has a new racing surface that is yielding a lot more grip. In last year’s race, North Wilkesboro appeared to be a miniature Darlington based on the grip level and tire wear. For this year’s race, bettors should expect a somewhat different race that favors more towards setup/handling as opposed to drivers just manhandling the truck through the turns with raw talent.
While North Wilkesboro still has the majority of its unique characteristics such as elevation changes, banking, and bumps; the speedway will inevitably race differently and that is reason to be somewhat cautious. Despite the changes to the racing surface, the good news is that this is still a very unique short track that still requires a lot of skill to navigate. If we can find the right type of value in odds and match-ups, we can still attack this race from a handicapping perspective. However, I just would not pay too much attention to last year’s results when trying to establish a handicapping baseline.
Practice Observations
In Friday’s lone practice for the Wright Brand 250, newcomer Brenden Queen posted the fastest lap of the afternoon with a speed of 125.621mph. Queen will be making his first Craftsman Truck Series start with the #1 team at TRICON Garage. Queen competes full-time in the CARS Tour and has a decent amount of experience despite making his Truck Series debut. With that being said, the TRICON Garage trucks took the top 3 spots on the speed charts with Queen, Heim, and Tanner Gray. Taylor Gray was also 6th on the board giving TRICON Garage 4 of the top 6 spots in terms of fast lap times. Overall the Thorsport Racing trucks continued to struggle which has been a constant theme this season. Ty Majeski was the only Thorsport driver in the top 15 which includes former champions Ben Rhodes and Matt Crafton where were far down the leaderboard.
Of course single lap speed rarely means much at short-tracks where long-run speed is usually king. In terms of overall observations, Corey Heim led all drivers with the best overall average which is not surprising considering the speed shown by TRICON Garage as noted above. Behind Heim, Grant Enfinger and Ty Majeski were my picks for the drivers that exceeded expectations. Enfinger has often excelled at tracks with flatter surfaces at North Wilkesboro definitely fits that narrative. While it was difficult to gauge long-run speed for some drivers, I thought Taylor Gray and Chase Purdy stood out as drivers that yielded minimal fall off throughout the entire session. Purdy’s lap times almost got better throughout the session which is extremely rare. Meanwhile, there were several big names like Ross Chastain, Aric Almirola, and Sammy Smith who were far down the leaderboard with underwhelming results.
Betting Targets
Based on what we have seen thus far this weekend, Corey Heim is easily the driver that should get the nod as the guy to beat. However, the newly repaved surface is going to open the door for potential upsets especially if we get several late race cautions where pit strategy can come into play. For that reason, I like smaller plays towards guys like Ty Majeski and Grant Enfinger as potential value plays. I mentioned both Majeski and Enfinger in the practice observations above but I really like both drivers’ skill sets for this type of track more so than their practice times. Majeski finished runner-up in this race last year and is among the most talented short track drivers in the series.
In recent weeks, we have rarely received many H2H options from odds makers and I really hope that changes. The Truck Series is probably my favorite series for H2H match-ups yet we just are getting the options that we have historically from odds makers. With that being said, Taylor Gray, Brenden Queen, and Chase Purdy are among some of the drivers that I am keeping an eye on for H2H purposes. While Queen is making his first start, he has enough experience to exceed expectations and is currently with the fastest team in the garage. Gray is having an excellent season and has shown strong long run trends throughout the year which will be important on Saturday. Meanwhile, Purdy is a bottom-tier option that I believe will run much better than current odds suggest.
2024 Wright Brand 250 Race Picks
*FINAL*
Corey Heim +300 (1 unit)
Ty Majeski +650 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Ross Chastain -130 over Aric Almirola (2 units)(*cancelled as Almirola failed to qualify*)
Tanner Gray -125 over Jake Garcia (2 units)
