2024 Weather Guard Truck Race Picks
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 16th, 2024. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
TV: FS1
Later tonight, the Craftsman Truck Series will kick off the racing weekend with the Weather Guard Truck Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Bristol Motor Speedway will actually hold two dates this season, on the concrete surface, for the first time in series history. The Truck Series historically visited Bristol just once in the fall but added the spring race to the calendar back in 2021 with the move to dirt. With this year’s race moving back to the traditional concrete surface, the Truck Series was able to keep its spring date and will maintain its late season date, in October, during the midst of the playoffs. Therefore, this weekend’s spring race for the Truck Series will be the first of its kind on the concrete surface.
While I am sure there are many Truck Series regulars that would love to add a Bristol Motor Speedway trophy to their resume, the field will have to deal with Rowdy Kyle Busch again this evening. As most are aware, Rowdy has been phenomenal in the Truck Series throughout his career winning 65 times in just 172 starts. Rowdy has already captured a victory (Atlanta) this season in the Truck Series and now gets the opportunity to go for another trophy at his best track where he owns 22 career wins across all touring series including 8 Cup Series victories. Needless to say, Busch will be the overwhelming betting favorite to get the job done again later tonight when the green flag drops.
Of course we could bring up the argument that Busch may not have the “dominance” factor from an equipment standpoint going into tonight’s race which was on display at Las Vegas when Busch failed to keep the #7 at the front of the field, resulting in a 15th place finish. To be honest, there is probably a lot of truth to that argument because Spire Motorsports has not looked nearly as strong as their predecessor, Kyle Busch Motorsports. The counter argument would be that short-tracks are usually where equipment weaknesses can be overcome especially in the Truck Series. Therefore, it would not be surprising to see Busch put together a “dominating” style effort without dominating type equipment. However if the equipment is a bigger factor than we realize or Busch simply runs into trouble tonight, perhaps we should look for those drivers that are worthy of pulling off an upset with better betting value!
Handicapping and Betting Strategy
I think tonight’s handicapping and betting strategy is a common conundrum between picking the driver with the highest likelihood of winning, with extremely unfavorable betting odds against drivers with better betting value with a less likelihood of winning. To be honest, there is no always correct strategy to this conundrum and we must consider all variables when making this determination. While Bristol does favor talent (skill) over equipment, it’s also very easy for things to go wrong.
A simple pit road mistake, green flag issue, or the simple loss of track position can ruin a driver’s pursuit of victory despite leading the most laps. In fact if you look at the last several races at Bristol in the Truck Series, we have seen several drivers post “dominating” performances but have failed to pick up the victory. Just last fall, Christian Eckes led 150 of 200 laps but lost track position in the final stage and ended up with a runner-up finish to Corey Heim. That same scenario has occurred several times in the last several Truck Series races at Bristol and perhaps that is reason to chase the drivers with the better betting “value” tonight opposed to Busch the outright favorite with the higher likelihood of winning.
Betting Targets
Practice and qualifying for tonight’s race will be held later this evening which will perhaps shed some light into how the Weather Guard Truck Race at Bristol will unfold. I’m keeping my opening betting thoughts rather conservative and based simply around a pool of drivers that I believe has consistently been strong at Bristol. For handicapping purposes, I would pay much closer attention to loop data rather than finishing positions. The latter can be achieved or lost easily with track position as we discussed earlier. With that being said, Corey Heim has easily been the best Truck Series regular over the last couple of races at Bristol. Meanwhile, Zane Smith (part-time start), Grant Enfinger, Christian Eckes, and Ty Majeski are among those that have consistently shown winning speed in recent races at Bristol. Majeski has likely shown the best speed out of that group and has a 2021 win on his resume.
Enfinger is one of my biggest H2H targets going into tonight’s race because very few people realize how good Enfinger has been at Bristol. In 7 career starts, Enfinger has never finished outside the top 10 and has finished 6th or better in 6 of those starts. In the last 3 starts, Enfinger has finished 3rd, 4th, and 2nd. Based on current betting odds, Enfinger may hold the best betting value on the board which makes him playable in all formats. I personally think the sharp value resides in H2H match-ups. If you want some deeper dark horses for potential H2H or fantasy opportunities, Taylor Gray, Rajah Caruth, and Chase Purdy are among the drivers that have shown improvement with every start at Bristol. I will have my eyes on those guys in practice for adding potential betting targets later tonight.
2024 Weather Guard Truck Race Betting Picks
*FINAL*
Christian Eckes +250 (1 unit)
Corey Heim +650 (1 unit)
Ty Majeski +800 (.75 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Grant Enfinger -115 over Tyler Ankrum (3 units)
Rajah Caruth -120 over Layne Riggs (2 units)
Taylor Gray -105 over Nick Sanchez (2 units)
