2024 Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200 Race Picks
Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday March 1st, 2024. 9:00PM (EST)
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: FS1
After back to back superspeedway weekends at Daytona and Atlanta, NASCAR’s top touring series will head out west for the first time this season as they make a stop in Sin City at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The opening act of this weekends’ festivities will reside late Friday when the Craftsman Truck Series drops the green flag for the Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200. So far this season, the Truck Series races have been somewhat subpar on the excitement scale but that could change on Friday when the likes of Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, and Zane Smith join the Truck Series regulars for racing in Las Vegas!
The opening two weekends of the season at Daytona and Atlanta were rather difficult races to handicap due to the superspeedway style racing both venues produce. While this weekend’s race would be classified in the 1.5 mile/intermediate racetrack category, Las Vegas actually races similar to a mini-superspeedway style racetrack. The reason is simple because drivers will nearly be full-throttle and looking to hold onto their truck’s every lap without lifting off the throttle. This specific style of racing favors the more talented drivers as opposed to the fastest trucks who are able to keep their foot in the throttle despite the loose handling conditions.
If you look back at the past winners at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Truck Series competition, it is easy to identify that the best talents typically won each race at Las Vegas. In the last several races, Kyle Busch, Austin Hill, and John Hunter Nemechek are among the names that have won the majority of the recent Truck Series races at Las Vegas. In each instance, they were among the most talented drivers in the entire field. As a result, I believe bettors should be favoring the talent vs. speed narrative going into Friday’s opener at LVMS. While there may be underdog opportunities, history tells us that the most talented drivers typically prevail in Sin City!
Handicapping Strategy
While we have had some success in the opening few weeks, I still believe bettors should be very conservative going into Las Vegas. While this race typically favors the more talented drivers as noted above, we still don’t know which teams have found the most speed in the Craftsman Truck Series. We have not gotten the opportunity to compare raw speed at the 1.5 mile speedways. As a result, we are not completely confident in what teams are producing the best raw speeds compared to the competition. Until we are more definitive on the horsepower/top speed narratives, we must keep a conservative mindset towards predicting potential race winners.
Weekend Schedule
The Truck Series will host practice/qualifying sessions early Friday afternoon which will be our first opportunity towards identifying the fastest trucks this weekend. Typically, I like to give practice speeds considerable consideration at the 1.5 mile speedways because I believe speed typically prevails over the driver’s talent in the long-run. However, I don’t believe we have truly identified any promising trends in the speed department. As a result, bettors should be very intuitive towards practice speeds on Friday to ensure it aligns with the overall talent narrative that I believe our handicapping should be based around.
Betting Targets
After practice, I will post some final thoughts which may or may not differentiate from pre-weekend notions. However, I think current betting odds are sufficient to attack the weekend with a proper strategy vs. speed balance. While Kyle Busch is the most talented truck series driver in the field, I’m not sure he deserves to be the overall betting favorite by a 6 to 1 margin especially against guys with equal talent, that know how to get around Las Vegas with optimal speed. As a result, I think the likes of Christopher Bell, Zane Smith, and Christian Eckes are all clearly among the most valuable betting options in the field based on probability vs. betting odds.
Christopher Bell has displayed elite level talent in the Truck Series over the latter stages of his young career and I personally think Tricon Garage is producing very solid speed capable of winning races. Meanwhile, both Zane Smith and Christian Eckes have been a product of the team (McAnally Hilgeman Racing) that has shown the most speed through two races this season and have the talent behind the wheel to beat the competition. Meanwhile, Tyler Ankrum and Grant Enfinger are among the names that have shown a considerable amount of speed thus far this year and should have the opportunity to run at the front of the field.
Final Thoughts – Post-Practice
Practice and qualifying wrapped up just a bit ago at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for tonight’s Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200. At the end of both sessions, Rajah Caruth earned the 1st pole of his career with a fast lap of 177.043mph. While Caruth’s pole winning lap was relatively surprising, he was surrounded by top teams/drivers in the likes of Christian Eckes, Stewart Friesen, Kyle Busch, and Tyler Ankrum as the top 5 qualifiers. Our early betting pick in Zane Smith qualified in the 6th position and is well within striking distance.
Aside from qualifying results, I don’t think practice was too surprising from the content I discussed going into the weekend. Kyle Busch appeared to have the most speed but the margins are very close which means guys like Christian Eckes, Zane Smith, Ty Majeski, Christopher Bell, and others are not far off. If any of those drivers can get track position late, they will have a shot at a win especially if late race restarts come into play. Personally, I also think Tyler Ankrum has shown “winning” type of speed this weekend which aligns with our MHR narrative. However, I believe Ankrum has more betting value in H2H match-ups as opposed to futures (win) bets. On the other side of the coin, I was not impressed with the likes of Christopher Bell, Corey Heim, and others from the TRICON Garage brigade. I thought both Bell and Heim would be threats this weekend but their speed appeared off in both of Friday’s sessions.
2024 Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200 Betting Picks
*FINAL*
Christopher Bell +600 (.5 unit)
Zane Smith +1000 (.75 unit)
Christian Eckes +1000 (.75 unit)
Ty Majeski +1000 (.75 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Tyler Ankrum -145 over Ben Rhodes (2 units)
Layne Riggs +105 over Chase Purdy (2 units)
