2024 USA Today 301 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday June 23rd, 2024. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
TV: USA

Last week, Ryan Blaney became the 10th different winner in the Cup Series this season with his victory in the series debut at Iowa. Blaney, who is the reigning Cup Series Champion, is the latest driver to lock themselves into the playoffs. Surprisingly, there are just 9 races remaining in NASCAR’s regular season and the fight for the remaining 6 playoff positions remains wide open. On Sunday, the Cup Series returns for another round of short track racing in the running of the USA Today 301 which will take place at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and perhaps offer some drivers another playoff clinching opportunity!

As many are aware, New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a 1.058 mile oval that features very flat corners. Often referred to as the Magic Mile, New Hampshire is one of the ultimate tests of car control as drivers will be forced to drive hard into the corners, under heavy braking, before attempting to get back to the throttle as fast as possible while trying to avoid rear tire spin. The flat corners make passing very difficult and drivers can easily burn up their tires if they are not careful. For those reasons, track position is often a very important piece of the puzzle in Loudon and that will be something that drivers/teams are trying to gain all afternoon on Sunday.

From a driver’s standpoint, New Hampshire requires a specific skill set of making the fast laps with minimal grip which is similar to what we may see at places like Richmond or Phoenix. Typically, the driver is responsible for most of the lap speed but they also need a car that is willing to turn throughout the corners. For those reasons, we usually see familiar names emerge at the front of the field at New Hampshire because the driver normally offers better value than the equipment they are piloting, especially in the Next Gen Car. The good news for bettors is that this combination is usually advantageous for handicappers as we can target the better talents for this style of racing as opposed to worrying about recent performance and equipment factors.

New Hampshire – Quick Notes

• Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch are tied for the most wins (3) among active drivers at New Hampshire.
• Brad Keselowski (2), Joey Logano (2), Martin Truex Jr, and Christopher Bell are the only other former winners at New Hampshire among active drivers.
• Martin Truex Jr has the best average finishing position (6.1) among active drivers at New Hampshire. Denny Hamlin (7.7) and Brad Keselowski (9.0) are the only other two drivers with a sub 10.0 average finishing position.
• Martin Truex Jr, Denny Hamlin, and Brad Keselowski have also all finished better than 7th in both Cup Series races at New Hampshire in the Next Gen Car.
• Christopher Bell has a win and a runner-up finish in 4 career starts at New Hampshire. Bell has also won all 4 of his Xfinity Series starts at New Hampshire.
• Bubba Wallace has finished 3rd and 8th in both starts at New Hampshire in the Next Gen Car.
• Alex Bowman has just 1 top 10 finish in 12 career starts at New Hampshire.
• Chris Buescher has 0 top 10 finishes in 10 career starts at New Hampshire.
• William Byron has 0 top 10 finishes in 6 career starts at New Hampshire.
• Chevrolet drivers have won just once (Kevin Harvick – 2016) at New Hampshire in the last 17 races.
• Ford drivers have won 4 of the last 6 races at New Hampshire.
• There have been at least 6 cautions in 16 straight races at New Hampshire.

Dynamic Averages

While I do not plan on spending a lot of time discussing our dynamic averages (short tracks), I will say that I believe it is worth reviewing for handicapping reasons this week. Guys like Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr, and Chase Elliott have all established impressive 100+ average ratings over the last 5 races at short-tracks. We know that Hamlin and Truex have historically performed very well in Loudon and our dynamic averages support the recent performance narrative to target those individuals once again. If you look further down the list, I was really surprised to see the results of Josh Berry and Bubba Wallace who have both performed much better than I believe most fans have noticed. Both drivers have solid 80+ rankings and have different angles that support the notion they could run well again on Sunday!

Practice Observations

Before I start with practice observations, I’m not exactly sure how much, if any, credibility we can give towards practice observations this week. Cup Series teams and drivers were scheduled to have 30 minutes of practice before qualifying on Saturday. Within a few minutes of practice beginning, rain started to fall which canceled the remainder of practice and also canceled qualifying. As a result, Chase Elliott will lead the field to green on Saturday with the starting lineup being set by the rulebook. With that being said, most drivers did get to put down a handful of laps before Mother Nature interrupted. Carson Hocevar posted the fastest lap of the brief session with a speed of 127.533mph.

For what it’s worth, it did appear that several of the Ford teams showed solid speed which has been a growing trend in recent weeks. Michael McDowell, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Josh Berry were all towards the top of the speed charts. Denny Hamlin also looked solid despite the fact he only ran 3 laps. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell is among the drivers that everyone was watching going into the weekend. However, Bell did not make a single lap before the rain ended things prematurely. Overall, I just don’t think we saw enough laps to draw any definitive conclusions from practice on Saturday. As a result, I think our handicapping has to revert back to prior performances at New Hampshire and other similar short, flat style racetracks to drive our handicapping narratives going into Sunday!

Betting Targets

If we look back at prior track history and combine the driving style handicapping factor, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell easily emerge as the candidates that stand out in all categories. Hamlin has been excellent on this style of track throughout his career and has been the best in the series since the adoption of the Next Gen Car. The only thing I don’t like about Hamlin this weekend is the fact that the #11 team has not shown their best stuff in the last several weeks. Meanwhile, I would argue that Bell has had the fastest car at nearly every short-track race this season but has not got the finishes to show for it. If you take that factor and combine the fact New Hampshire is his best track, I don’t see how anyone could discount Bell as the top dawg going into Sunday.

Obviously, Martin Truex Jr, Joey Logano, and others have also shown the trends and skill set to warrant betting consideration. However, I just don’t like the betting value on those names for a variety of different reasons. In terms of betting odds, I love the value on guys like Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski. Though I realize Chevrolet teams, including Hendrick Motorsports, have not performed their best in New Hampshire, Larson has been among the elite talents in the Cup Series on the short tracks and has a pair of runner-up finishes despite his winless mark in 13 career starts. Meanwhile, Keselowski has been performing well throughout the season and enters one of his most underrated tracks where he has excellent performance metrics. We already have some exposure to Keselowski, to finish as the Top Ford, in our parlay that is live from the Xfinity Series race this afternoon. While further exposure is debatable, Keselowski still has excellent value in H2H match-ups based on current odds.

Deeper into the field, I don’t have many favorites for deep dark horses. The likes of Josh Berry and Ty Gibbs are some of the drivers that have shown positive indicators at similar track styles. However, both drivers have been bet down to current odds that yield no value. Meanwhile, Bubba Wallace and Chase Briscoe are a couple of names that appear to be destined to outrun current betting odds. Wallace has been very strong in the Next Gen Car at New Hampshire with finishes of 3rd and 8th. Meanwhile, Briscoe has been strong on the short tracks throughout the year. Not to mention, the Ford teams have looked strong from the minimal observations we had in practice. As a result, Wallace and Briscoe are candidates for H2H/prop bet and fantasy formats. Speaking of fantasy, I would also throw Kyle Busch (place differential upside) and Ryan Preece ($ cost) into the mix as ideal fantasy targets.

Draftkings Optimal Fantasy Lineup for New Hampshire

2024 USA Today 301 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Denny Hamlin +800 (.75 unit)
Kyle Larson +900 (.75 unit)
Joey Logano +1000 (.75 unit)
Brad Keselowski +1800 (.5 unit)
Josh Berry +3300 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Bubba Wallace -145 over Kyle Busch (3 units)
Denny Hamlin -110 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Bubba Wallace +600 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Justin Haley +500 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +2500 finishes Top Ford (.25 unit)