2024 UNOH 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Thursday September 19th, 2024. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

All of NASCAR’s touring series will be in action over the next several days at Bristol Motor Speedway as we build-up to the infamous Bass Pro Shops Bristol Night Race on Saturday. For the Craftsman Truck Series, the racing action will begin later tonight with the running of the UNOH 200 which will be the 2nd race in the Truck Series playoffs. Just two weeks ago, Layne Riggs scored a breakthrough victory at the Milwaukee Mile which spoiled the opening race of the playoffs for many of the championship contenders. Riggs had previously compiled a very lackluster trend throughout the 2024 campaign but was able to put together one of the best performances of his young career. The question going into Thursday’s UNOH 200 at Bristol is can another surprise winner emerge or will a championship contender secure their ticket to the round of 8!

The Craftsman Truck Series Championship has been a two-horse race for the majority of the season between Corey Heim and Christian Eckes who have combined to win 8 of the 17 races completed this year. In recent races, Ty Majeski has emerged as a legitimate championship contender by winning 2 of the last 3 races at IRP and Richmond. Majeski has been among the best drivers throughout the season at the short tracks and the playoffs has short-tracks in every round which increases the odds that Majeski could be among the final 4 competing for the championship at Phoenix. Interestingly, Majeski, Heim, and Eckes are the past 3 winners in the Truck Series at Bristol and the only former winners on Thursday night’s entry list which includes last week’s Xfinity Series winner in Connor Zilisch who will be making the 2nd Truck Series start of his young career.

Needless to say, the big 3 trio of Majeski, Heim, and Eckes should be the heavy favorites tonight and have the best opportunity to punch their ticket to the next round of the playoffs. With that being said, Bristol Motor Speedway is the fastest half-mile track in motorsports. Tonight’s Truck Series competitors will be completing laps in the 15 second bracket. In fact, 15.2 seconds was the official speed of pole winner Christian Eckes back in the spring race at Bristol who went on to lead 144 of 250 laps en route to a dominating victory. Despite that fact, these lap times at Bristol are extremely fast which means one mistake, flat tire, or penalty can cause a driver/team to be taken out of consideration for the victory especially under green flag conditions. Therefore, we should expect some strong racing and perhaps a few surprises as the laps unfold under the lights at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Handicapping Strategy

Typically when Bristol shows up on the calendar, we can quickly look to identify the drivers that excel at the half-mile bullring. The car control, amount of on-throttle time, and fearless nature needed to run around Bristol with lightning quick lap speeds is usually biased to the guys with the best short-track skill sets. However, we have seen handling become a much bigger player in these Truck and Cup Series races in recent years because you have to nail a setup that will carry speed through the turns while keeping the machine under control. The most talented drivers can struggle with a setup that does not allow them to attack to the corners at Bristol. For that reason, I believe our handicapping strategy has to look at track history combined with the driver’s skill set and also wait for some confirmation/validation from practice speeds. It is not often that I say we must wait on practice speeds before solidifying our betting picks but it is imperative that teams do not miss the setup this week. With that being said, practice will not take play until Thursday afternoon so be sure to check back for added practice observations and final thoughts!

Betting Targets

In reviewing the last several races at Bristol, Christian Eckes has easily been the best driver in the field. Eckes not only won the spring race but he has posted a 100+ average driver rating in 3 consecutive starts at Bristol. The last driver to complete that feat in Truck Series competition was Kyle Busch. Simply put, Eckes has consistently been able to drive his equipment to the front and if the #19 can bring another Truck with the speed shown in the spring; I would not be surprised if Eckes ends up in victory lane again this evening. Behind Eckes, I believe we need to wait for validation in practice/qualifying before making any betting picks. As mentioned before, betting odds are currently very top heavy and that is the reason that I would avoid taking any of the favorites early with the exception of Eckes.

While I am waiting to see how practice speeds shake out, I will admit that Grant Enfinger and Taylor Gray are currently trending really high on my betting radar. Enfinger has consistently been strong at Bristol throughout his career and is one of those drivers that seems to always produce a quality result which is ideal in H2H situations. Gray has just 3 career starts at Bristol but has performed really well in each of the last two starts. In fact, Gray has averaged an 8th place running position over the last two races and has a much higher ceiling than the drivers in his betting odds range. As a result, I really like Enfinger and Gray for H2H match-ups and perhaps for dark horse consideration if we can find sufficient value.

Practice Observations – Final Thoughts

Following practice and qualifying sessions earlier, rookie phenom Connor Zilisch backed up last week’s impressive Xfinity Series victory by winning the pole for tonight’s UNOH 200. Last week, Zilisch won in his first career start in the Xfinity Series by winning at Watkins Glen. For those unaware, Zilisch is an extremely talented road course talent but perhaps the best overall rising talent in the sport. Today’s qualifying effort, in just his 2nd Truck Series start, help support that narrative and the rookie will have the opportunity to lead the field to the green flag later this evening.

From a practice standpoint, we really did not see any dominance from any team/driver. Layne Riggs, Matt Crafton, and Nick Sanchez were among the names that showed strong speed in practice. Corey Heim was probably the best overall driver from practice to qualifying. However, some of the top names that we expected to be fast in the likes of Ty Majeski and Taylor Gray appeared to be somewhat off in the speed department. Needless to say, I’m not sure if anyone is deserving of favorite status tonight with the exception of Corey Heim. Meanwhile, Riggs and Sanchez may be worth potential betting considerations in low-risk formats.

2024 Draftkings UNOH 200 Optimal Lineup

2024 UNOH 200 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Nick Sanchez +900 (.75 unit)
Grant Enfinger +1000 (.75 unit)
Taylor Gray +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Taylor Gray -130 over Rajah Caruth (2 units)
Matt Crafton +900 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Stewart Friesen +1100 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Corey Heim +300 wins UNOH 200
Justin Allgaier +250 wins Food City 300
Risking 1 unit to win: +1300